Oct 15
So far, October 2013 is running well above normal in the temperature department: As shown above, the lower lakes and Ohio valley region has been the target for the biggest…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/15/change-on-the-horizon/
Oct 10
Updated 10.11.13 @ 6:45a
Zionsville, IN I, like many of you, make sure to enjoy the last of the warm, sunny weather this time of year. As veteran Hoosiers know, the months ahead present a cloudy, bitterly cold, and windy time of things. Thankfully, we have another gorgeous day lined up to close the work week. We discuss this and busier times ahead below!
Friday: Partly cloudy; 48/ 76
It’s only fitting that we close out the work week with the same type of weather we’ve enjoyed all week long- a cool start followed by beautiful weather conditions through the afternoon. Get outside and spend some time soaking up the sunshine!
Saturday: Mostly cloudy; scattered evening/ nighttime shower; 0.10″ or less; 50/ 76
Most of your daytime Saturday will provide pleasant weather to get some of those last minute chores taken care of. We’ll notice an increase in our cloud cover followed by a broken line of showers (perhaps a rumble of thunder) rolling through the state from west to east. We’re not looking at significant rainfall with this system. In fact, we think most communities pick up less than one tenth of an inch of rain (if that).
Sunday: Partly cloudy; 55/ 70
While some of our extreme eastern counties may see an AM shower Sunday, most of the day will be rain-free and feature increasing sunshine. It’ll be another pleasant day for outdoor activities.
Monday: Partly cloudy; 45/ 69
High pressure and an associated northerly air flow will dominate our weather to begin the new work week. North breezes may gust upwards of 15 MPH Monday and this will help keep us cooler than the weekend. We’ll start the day quite chilly (middle 40s for most) before warming into the upper 60s.
Tuesday: Increasing cloudiness, PM shower; 0.10″; 54/ 73
While we have some timing issues to work out as we draw closer to the event (GFS is more progressive whereas the ECMWF is slower), we’ll go ahead and introduce shower chances to your forecast as early as Tuesday evening. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.
Wednesday: Rain; 0.50″; 49/ 64
As of now, we see a cold front moving through the region Wednesday. Ahead of the front, showers and possibly a thunderstorm will blow through the region. Our winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday night/ Thursday, helping drive the coldest air so far this season into the Hoosier state Wednesday night and Thursday.
Thursday: Rain; 0.50″; 44/ 57
Again, as we posted above, timing is everything with our mid to late week cold front. Overnight model data places a heavier corridor of rain through central Indiana mid week- potentially as much as 1″-1.25″ over the two day period.
We also want to continue pointing out that with the PNA shifting back into the positive, the stage is set for chilly air to hang around the region with more “staying power” as we move through October’s second half. We’ve covered this in posts below and will continue to go over things as we move forward… It’s time to certainly pull out those coats! 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/10/friday-forecast-busier-times-ahead-in-the-good-ole-forecast-office/
Oct 08
Forecast models continue to hint at the potential of our next significant storm system slated for a mid month arrival. Latest data, hot off the press, remains in general agreement on the way things evolve, but details on timing and any heavy rain/ severe threat will have to be fine tuned as we move forward.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/08/wednesday-evening-forecast-update/
Oct 06
Rain was plentiful over the region over the past 48 hours. While widespread 2″ rainfall was common for all of central Indiana, the heaviest rainfall fell across southern and eastern Indiana.
Here are a couple of illustrations of the rainfall totals. The first image is storm total rainfall from the past 24 hours. Note the heavy, 4″ type rains over southern and eastern Indiana. The second image is off the awesome Weatherbell model site and shows the heavy rainfall event over Indiana that unfolded on a bigger scale. Needless to say, the short term drought concerns that we were dealing with August and September have been erased.
Temperatures are running MUCH cooler over the region today and we also note a drier, more fall-like, air mass building into the region. A couple of other items- it’s easy to see where the cold front is currently located (as of this post) as many in Ohio are still dealing with warm, humid conditions. Additionally, the cold core upper level low remains to our west and will rotate over our region Monday. This will lead to an unseasonably cool day with mostly cloudy skies and the potential of a scattered shower.
As we move forward, despite the cooler air to welcome in the new work week, we remain in a warmer than average pattern overall. The PNA continues to dominate the pattern and until this goes positive, don’t look for any sort of sustained cool weather across the eastern US.
The European operational and ensemble show the current trough and associated cool air retreating and allowing a warmer southwesterly air flow to build in this week.
Monday
Thursday
After a quiet time ahead (and much needed to dry out), our next significant storm system appears to arrive around mid month. Both the GFS and European model are in agreement with this idea. Does another potential significant rain maker and associated severe weather event lie ahead mid month? Possibly.
Here’s a look at the upper air pattern out at Day 10 off the European model. We note another significant storm system ejecting out into the Plains states, most likely after dumping another impressive early autumn snow on the central and northern Rockies.
The GFS idea is something similar to that of the European, suggesting confidence is relatively high, at least from this distance.
All of that said, we’re still in a “transient” pattern as the next big storm is shown crashing onshore along the west coast by both models. We shouldn’t be surprised by a “transient” pattern this time of year. It’s October, after all- a month notorious for many swings on the thermometer.
We’ll close with a look at the European’s temperatures anomalies over the course of the next 10 days. Note the chill of early week erased with above normal warmth for the majority of the period. Also, pay attention to the unseasonable chill coming off the Rockies and into the Plains towards the end of the period below. This is associated with the mid month storm.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/06/sunday-afternoon-rambles/
Oct 05
http:/ Good Morning! Here’s a quick video showing what the ECMWF and GFS see as far as the coming heavy rainfall event goes. Your full forecast is below. As…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/05/quick-video-brief-discussing-rain-severe-potential/
Oct 04
Your complete full, updated, forecast will be online later this evening. Here’s a look at the 12z model data….coming more in line with what the European model has been saying…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/04/quick-afternoon-video-update/
Oct 03
Updated 10.04.13 @ 7:45a
Zionsville, IN Thursday started off with cloudy skies and scattered showers, but rainfall amounts were extremely light for the most part across central Indiana.
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Friday: Partly cloudy; 64/ 84
While we cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm Friday, we think the majority of central Indiana wraps up the work week rain-free. Get outside and enjoy temperatures at summer-like levels. We think we top the middle 80s with continued unseasonably muggy conditions prevailing.
Saturday: Increasing clouds; late showers and t-storms; 0.40″ 66/ 80
Most of your Saturday looks rain-free and continued unseasonably warm. We’ll note a gusty southwesterly breeze from time to time. As a cold front approaches, skies will begin to cloud up and scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. Rain chances will be with us in a widely scattered form from late morning on, but the better chances of getting wet appear to arrive Saturday night. We also note the Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in a Slight Risk of severe weather, with damaging winds the primary threat Saturday night. Stay tuned!
Sunday: Cloudy with showers and t-storms- late day clearing; 0.60″ 50/ 66
Showers and thunderstorms will be likely on your way to church Sunday morning, continuing into the afternoon before clearing takes place late. Winds will shift to the northwest and help usher in a MUCH cooler air mass Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will fall through the afternoon Sunday.
Monday: Mostly sunny; 43/ 60
“FINALLY.” At least that will be the word IndyWx.com uses to describe Monday’s weather as some true autumn air builds into the region. Monday is shaping up to be a beauty of a day with bright sunshine and crisp, cool temperatures.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny; 44/ 68
Tuesday is looking to be a carbon copy of Monday thanks to high pressure remaining in control of our weather. Classic early October weather conditions will prevail early next week.
Wednesday & Thursday: Partly cloudy; mid to upper 40s/ lower to middle 70s
Dry conditions will continue as we progress through the middle of next week with moderating temperatures. Highs will return to above normal levels by Wednesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/03/friday-forecast-feeling-like-summer-in-october/
Oct 02
Good Wednesday afternoon! As we analyze the latest data, one thing that screams out to us is that our warmer than normal pattern is going to continue at least for…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/02/brief-shots-of-cool-weather-in-an-otherwise-warm-pattern/
Sep 29
It’s been a relaxing weekend here at IndyWx.com headquarters, complete with lots of time visiting with family and friends, and enjoying what’s truly important in this life. Auburn was off…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/09/29/a-look-ahead-sunday-evening-rambles/
Sep 29
You probably hear myself, and many other weather sources, speak of the European forecast model (ECMWF) as one of the best in the business. While that’s true, it does not…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/09/29/the-european-model-isnt-without-sin/