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Category: European Model
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/21/video-taste-of-fall-is-replaced-with-resurgent-summer-heat/
Aug 18
Early Week Storm Delivers Strong Storms; Taste Of Early Autumn…
After we get rid of the morning fog, a mostly dry weekend is in store for central Indiana. The potential is present for a widely scattered shower for southern and eastern areas (mainly south of the city), but most of the immediate region will remain rain-free through the weekend.
Attention is now focused on a storm system that will deliver a return of unsettled weather to open the work week, followed by a “taste” of fall for midweek:
A surface low will move out of Iowa Monday evening into the Great Lakes region Tuesday. A trailing cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday evening.
Scattered thunderstorms will return as early as Monday afternoon, but more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Tuesday. While not a textbook set-up for widespread severe weather by any means, enough ingredients are in place to at least raise an eyebrow for a few severe storms ahead of the cold frontal passage. Don’t be surprised if the ‘marginal’ risk is upgraded to a ‘slight’ risk for Tuesday in future updates from the Storm Prediction Center.
Once the cold front moves through, a rather abrupt wind shift will drive a much drier and cooler air mass southeast and it’ll feel like early autumn around these parts as we progress through the second half of the work week. Not only will the significant drop in humidity be nice, but some outlying areas away from the city will likely fall into the 40s for overnight lows Thursday and Friday mornings. Highs will only top out in the mid to upper 70s.
Looking longer term, summer isn’t finished just yet. Ridging will return for the Labor Day weekend and support building warmth as we put a wrap on August and open September.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/18/early-week-storm-delivers-strong-storms-taste-of-early-autumn/
Aug 15
Winter 2018-2019 Notes…
As the calendar turns from July to August, we really begin to increase the amount of research into the upcoming winter season. While still a couple months out from publishing our official Winter Outlook, we did want to touch base on a couple of items.
The early “baseline” of our ideas focuses on the likelihood of El Nino returning for the upcoming winter season. As we’ve stated many times in the past, each Nino event is different from one another and other ingredients (highlighted above) can play a significant role in ultimately determining the eventual outcome.
- Weak Modoki (central-based) Nino is expected this winter
- SST configuration in the NPAC (north Pacific) is perhaps the most “intriguing” item at the moment
- Low solar/ QBO
Somewhat of a surprise is that the majority of longer range, seasonal data is aligning for a cold, stormy eastern winter. Included in the cold, stormy camp are the JAMSTEC, European, and CanSIPS. A few snap shots are included below…
JAMSTEC Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for meteorological winter (December through February).
JAMSTEC Surface Temperature Anomalies for meteorological winter.
CanSIPS 500mb for meteorological winter.
The CFSv2 is siding with a warmer winter, but it appears as if the model is struggling with the coming Nino and “over-hyping” things. Accordingly, the model results in a blow torch winter. Again, remember, we’re leaning towards a weak, central-based event.
That sea surface temperature configuration in the northern Pacific argues for western Canada ridging and downstream troughiness such as the JAMSTEC, European, and CanSIPS would imply.
Just wanted to touch base briefly on our early thinking before we release our official 2018-2019 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook in October.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/15/winter-2018-2019-notes/
Jul 26
VIDEO: Cold Front Inbound; Soaking Rains Early Next Week?
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/26/video-cold-front-inbound-soaking-rains-early-next-week/
Jul 24
Tuesday Morning Rambles: Drier Air Before Our Next Front…
I. Drier air will work into the region and limit rain chances today and Wednesday (isolated coverage at best). Highs will also warm back up to seasonal levels during the time.
Drier air will work into the Ohio Valley today and Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
II. Our next frontal boundary will arrive Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours. Behind the boundary, cooler and refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week.
Cooler, more refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
III. We’re timing out our next storm system for a weekend arrival. While the weekend won’t be a wash out, rain chances will return late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast models differ on the specifics with respect to timing, track, and rainfall amounts and all will have to be fine tuned over the next few days.
The GFS is faster and more aggressive on weekend rain. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Meanwhile, the European is slower with rain, bringing the bulk of precipitation in AFTER the weekend. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
IV. Longer range, we don’t see any significant heat on the immediate horizon. On that note, while we aren’t saying additional hot days won’t occur the rest of the way in, we continue to believe the hottest weather of the summer is behind us. The new European Weeklies in last night continued a seasonal to cooler than average theme for August into early September. All images below are courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Days 10-17
Days 18-25
Days 25-32
Days 32-39
Days 38-45
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/24/tuesday-morning-rambles-drier-air-before-our-next-front/
Jul 06
VIDEO: Hint Of Fall The Next Couple Mornings…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/06/video-hint-of-fall-the-next-couple-mornings/
May 29
Light At The End Of The Tunnel From The Recent Dry Regime?
In our JMA Weekly recap from last week, we noted the model was transitioning towards a wetter pattern for early and mid June.
It’s encouraging to see the latest ensemble data from the American GFS and European (courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com) support this idea, as well.
In addition to a wetter pattern, we would also want to pay attention to the potential of a gusty storm complex or two riding southeast around the hot dome off to our southwest.
After an unusually dry May (- 3.44″ as of this post), Alberto’s remnant moisture will help us, at the very least, cut into the rainfall deficit tomorrow. Longer term, it sure is nice to see the medium range guidance in agreement on a wetter time of things. As we’re all aware, this is a crucial time to determine the overall long-standing summer pattern. Dry ground and early warmth can easily “feedback” on itself, and it’s easy to understand some of the concern, particularly AG-related over the past few weeks. With that said, it’s certainly not too late to try and at least ease some of the worry a bit.
When we look at the MJO, we note the amplitude and it’s forecast to swing through the wetter phases, at least locally, (4,5,6) through the month of June:
In closing, the JMA Weeklies led the charge in the idea of more active times returning in June, and the combination of GFS and European ensemble data suggests they had merit. With the added bonus of having the MJO on our side, it’ll be hard to avoid a change of the guard towards an overall wetter pattern in the weeks ahead. Perhaps Alberto’s remnant moisture is only the beginning…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/29/light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-from-the-recent-dry-regime/
May 10
Thursday Evening Rambles…
1.) A gorgeous Thursday evening will give way to increasing cloudiness overnight along with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm coverage into the wee morning hours Friday. The culprit? A warm front lifting north through central Indiana.
2.) Sunshine will develop as the day progresses Friday and we’ll notice an increasingly muggy feel through the afternoon and evening. A true taste of summer can be expected as we put a wrap on the work week, including highs in the middle 80s and dew points climbing into the mid and upper 60s.
Also note the tight temperature gradient across the state. That temperature gradient will serve as the focal point between a mostly dry central Indiana through the first half of the weekend and “busier” times across northern parts of the state into the southern Great Lakes region. Locally heavy rain will fall at times with storms for our friends “up north!” We’ll remain very summer-like here into next week.
3.) Most of the weekend will be rain and storm free across central Indiana with many more dry hours than not. With that said, we’ll monitor for the prospects of a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into Sunday.
4.) The balance of next week will run significantly warmer than normal and feature an almost daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. While there will be some “haves and have nots,” most area rain gauges should accumulate 1″ to 2″ of rain by the end of next week.
5.) Speaking of rain, the new European Weeklies in tonight, courtesy of weathermodels.com, also point towards wetter times in our future. This is encouraging as it supports the going idea shown this morning from the JMA Weeklies, CFSv2 Weeklies, and GEFS. Needless to say, despite the recent dry shift, we’re not concerned for long term moisture issues (or lack thereof ;-)).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/10/thursday-evening-rambles-4/
May 01
VIDEO: Summer-like Feel Wednesday Helps Fuel Storm Chances; Longer Range Thoughts…
For the first time this spring, you’ll really notice the muggy nature to the air by Wednesday afternoon, as dew points climb from the pleasant 50s (Wednesday morning) to near…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/01/video-summer-like-feel-wednesday-helps-fuel-storm-chances-longer-range-thoughts/
Apr 23
Turning Significantly Warmer Towards The End Of The 10-Day Period…
The upcoming 10-days will run cooler than normal, overall, but it’s the cool on the front end that will be most noticeable before a nice warming trend develops towards the weekend and into early parts of Week 2.
After a chilly work week (relative to average), 60s will return this weekend and temperatures will zip into the lower and middle 70s early next week, before approaching 80° by the middle of next week.
Despite the showers that will impact central Indiana today, it’s mostly a dry pattern over the upcoming 10-day period. Additional rain chances will continue Tuesday (scattered, nuisance-level) and with a frontal passage Friday. With that said, 10-day rainfall will only run between one half and three quarters of an inch for most of the region.
The majority of the Ohio Valley will run drier than normal through the period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/04/23/turning-significantly-warmer-towards-the-end-of-the-10-day-period/