Category Archives: European Model

“Transitional” Is The Theme For Our Temperature Pattern Upcoming 10-14 Days; Precipitation Pattern? Not So Much…

Updated 05.10.22 @ 6:30a

There’s a reason we labeled the midweek pattern as a “taste” of summer. Thankfully, (speaking for most, I believe) we’re not ready to “lock and load” the summer like heat and humidity. In fact, we’ll get some relief from humidity by the latter stages of the work week. By early next week, highs will drop back into the lower 70s and overnight lows will fall into the 40s.

Pattern next week at this time will be feeling mighty different around these parts as a trough carves itself out across the Great Lakes/ Northeast.

Despite the roller coaster ride the next couple of weeks will likely deliver from a temperature perspective (remember, we have the MJO to deal with again now, too), the pattern, as a whole, looks drier than normal over the upcoming 10-14 days.

While the pattern is likely one to continue featuring wild swings in temperatures to wrap up the month, most of the frontal systems seem like they won’t deliver excessive rainfall amounts from this distance. It should be noted the European data above has plenty of support from its American and Canadian counterparts.

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VIDEO: Conditions Come Together For A Few Strong Storms Wednesday Evening; Colder Shift Yet Again To Close The Week…

Updated 03.27.22 @ 8:52a

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Winter Isn’t Done Yet…

Updated 03.02.22 @ 7:56p

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is back in the null, or neutral, phase.

That means it’s time to start leaning heavier on the teleconnection blend. This time of the year, that encompasses all, including the NAO.

As we look over the course of the upcoming 10-14 days, we note rather strong alignment between the teleconnections favoring a return of a cold pattern. That is, of course, after the taste of spring that will continue into the day Sunday (aside from one “speed bump” tomorrow).

We note the EPO, or East Pacific Oscillation, is forecast negative until around the 12th and then back towards neutral. This is a cold signal for the east, relative to average.

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is forecast neutral through the bulk of the upcoming couple weeks. – Likely won’t have a significant impact on the overall pattern.

The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is forecast negative through the 13th before trending neutral. This should allow a southeastern ridge to remain in play to at least some degree which suggests a very active storm track into the Ohio Valley. As the colder air pushes east and runs up against the resistance from the southeastern ridge, late season wintry threats loom towards mid month.

Finally, the WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) is forecast strongly negative which also implies cold should try and fight east.

With all of that said above, we note the ensemble guidance (both the EPS and GEFS) brings the trough back into the central and eastern portion of the country as we move out of the Day 1-6 period and suggests it’s far too early to think about putting away those winter clothes, or even the snow removal equipment just yet…

Upper air pattern- March 3-8
Upper air pattern- March 8-13
Upper air pattern- March 12-17

Note the colder than normal temperatures spilling back into the region next week and the week beyond.

We’re likely far from finished with snow or wintry precipitation either…

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Midday Video Update: Fresh Thoughts As 12z Data Strolls In…

Updated 02.21.22 @ 1:54p

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