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Category: European Model
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/02/video-worth-keeping-an-eye-on-mid-late-week/
Nov 01
VIDEO: Reinforcing Cold Air Arrives Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/01/video-reinforcing-cold-air-arrives-next-week/
Oct 31
VIDEO: Rain Changes To Snow; Cold Open To November…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/31/video-rain-changes-to-snow-cold-open-to-november/
Oct 29
Tuesday Morning Rambles: A Lot To Talk About…
I. A cold front will slip through central Indiana this evening. After a high near 60 today, temperatures will be stuck in the 40s most of the day tomorrow. To add insult to injury, rain will overspread the state from the southwest late tonight into Wednesday morning.
There will be brief lull in the rain Wednesday evening before rain becomes widespread yet again early Halloween morning. All total, many central Indiana rain gauges can anticipate around 1″ of rainfall with this storm system.
II. Speaking of Halloween, it’ll be important to dress warmly when out and about trick-or-treating Thursday evening. Falling temperatures, increasingly gusty winds, and snow flurries/ scattered snow showers can be expected. How cold? Temperatures will be falling into the lower 30s Thursday evening with a gusty wind (around 30 MPH) resulting in wind chills in the upper 10s to middle 20s.
III. The first lake effect snow event of the fall will take place this weekend. Accumulating snow is expected in the snow belt regions- especially Saturday night. Otherwise, the first official freeze of the season can be expected for many across the Ohio Valley this weekend.
IV. Longer term, I’d get used to the cold, more wintry weather. The pattern continues to look much colder than average and active as we rumble through the early part of the month. (In case you didn’t see it last night, our November Outlook can be found here).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/29/tuesday-morning-rambles-a-lot-to-talk-about/
Oct 26
VIDEO: Wet, Windy Saturday; Looking Ahead To Halloween And The Colder Pattern That Awaits…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/26/video-wet-windy-saturday-looking-ahead-to-halloween-and-the-colder-pattern-that-awaits/
Oct 25
VIDEO: Busy Time Of Things In The Good Ole Forecast Office…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/25/video-busy-time-of-things-in-the-good-ole-forecast-office/
Oct 23
VIDEO: Saturday Washout And Reasons To Buy The Cold Early November Idea; Winter ’19-’20 Chatter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/23/video-saturday-washout-and-reasons-to-buy-the-cold-early-november-idea-winter-19-20-chatter/
Oct 23
Rain Chances Going Up This Weekend; Taste Of Winter Blows Into Town Before Halloween…
Dry weather will prevail today and the majority of Thursday across central Indiana (a light passing shower is possible across northern Indiana, but this won’t be a big deal).
Scattered light showers are possible Thursday night into the day Friday, along with an increase in cloud cover, but again, significantly more dry time is anticipated than wet. Some won’t see a drop of rain Friday.
As we rumble into the weekend, a vigorous upper level low in Oklahoma will “bowl” east across Arkansas and then shoot northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday. (Hint, you may want to get used to this kind of storm track over the upcoming winter). This will result in increasing aerial coverage of rain Saturday.
Rain will exit off to the northeast Saturday night and a drier second half of the weekend is expected. By the time all is said and done, a solid 0.50″ to 1″ of rain is expected (we’re currently siding with a blend of the aggressive European and lighter GFS).
After a wet 1st half of the weekend, all eyes will be set on a taste of winter that’s dialed up just before Halloween. A cold front will blow through the Ohio Valley early next week with the threat of rain followed by sharply colder air. As upper level energy rounds the base of the digging significant trough, the first flakes of the season can be expected across the region before Halloween (still will have to fine tune timing). This pattern will also serve up the first accumulating lake effect snow event of the season, including the Snow Belt regions of IN, MI, and OH.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/23/rain-chances-going-up-this-weekend-taste-of-winter-blows-into-town-before-halloween/
Oct 19
VIDEO: Potential Shower This Evening? Looking Ahead To A Busy Week Of Weather…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/19/video-potential-shower-this-evening-looking-ahead-to-a-busy-week-of-weather/
Oct 17
Pattern Evolution Through Late October…
The teleconnections are aligning in a manner that favors a colder than average period of weather by late-October standards. Note the PNA trend positive while the EPO heads negative. The AO and NAO also follow suit.
The sum of all of the above should feature a predominant western ridge for late month with a persistent eastern trough- at times deeper than others.
Add in the fact that the MJO is anticipated to swing into Phase 2 and this further serves to increase confidence in the colder shift.
The models are focusing in on the colder close to the month and though specifics will continue to vary from run-to-run, the primary message that we want to convey is to expect a colder than average 2nd half of the month with an active storm track. As pops of more “winter-like” air get involved behind one or two of the late month storms, pre-Halloween flakes may fly across a portion of the Ohio Valley.
Given the pattern progression and anticipated teleconnection states, we think it’s wise to ensure the kiddos have a warm Halloween costume this year!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/17/pattern-evolution-through-late-october/