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Category: European Model
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/02/video-pleasant-open-to-the-week-takes-on-a-more-wintry-2nd-half/
Jan 31
Time To Beat The Drum A Little Louder On Next Week?
After a surge of warmth engulfs the region during the early part of the week, a cold front will sag south into the central Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This front will result in an expanding shield of rain Monday night into Tuesday across all of central Indiana.
As we progress through Tuesday evening, the frontal boundary will likely sag south, allowing colder air to filter in (at least at the lowest levels of the atmosphere) across north-central parts of the Ohio Valley. As another slug of moisture moves northeast along the frontal boundary, precipitation is expected to once again become widespread Tuesday night into Wednesday. With the colder air oozing in, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain is a possibility across northern IL, IN, and OH. The precise placement of the front will determine whether or not more of central Indiana can get in on the “excitement” of this icy mixture during the aforementioned time period.
It’ll be wise to pay attention to forecast details during the weekend for the Tuesday and Wednesday time period- especially if you have travel plans north.
As this takes place, the upper ridge will get “beaten back” into the 2nd half of the work week. It’s important to note, however, that there will likely still be enough resistance from the upper level ridge that the cold front will get hung up along or just east of the spine of the Appalachians in the Thursday-Friday time frame.
As this transpires, yet another wave of energy will move up along the pressing boundary. Accordingly, precipitation should once again blossom in response of this wave of low pressure moving northeast. While the European (shown below) wants to keep things east of the immediate region, it’s wise not to write this system off from this distance. Not only does other data show the threat locally, but it’s all too often where storm systems “correct” further west as time draws closer to said event…
While this week has been relatively boring in the weather department, things will change in significant fashion next week. Whether or not those changes can deliver “wintry goods” is TBD…
Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/31/time-to-beat-the-drum-a-little-louder-on-next-week/
Jan 31
January Review; Looking Ahead To A Busy Week In Front Of Us…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/31/january-review-looking-ahead-to-a-busy-week-in-front-of-us/
Jan 29
Things Turn More Active Early Next Week…
The short-term weather pattern will remain largely uneventful here across central Indiana. This morning, widespread precipitation is falling to our southwest, including accumulating snow across MO. This system will weaken significantly as it pushes east.
Some upper level energy is still capable of developing some light snow across central Indiana tonight into Thursday morning, but this won’t be a big deal and some neighborhoods won’t see any snow at all.
An additional upper level disturbance will track southeast, skirting far northeastern parts of the area, and help generate a mixed rain or snow shower Saturday (again, not expected to be a big deal, locally).
Behind this system, a significant warm up will engulf the Ohio Valley, including a couple of days with highs between 50° and 55° early next week.
These spring-like temperatures will be in advance of a pressing cold front that will arrive on the scene during the middle part of the work week. As we’d imagine from this distance, modeling is handling the timing and specifics of the frontal system differently (image 1- GFS is more progressive and colder while image 2-the European is much slower/ warmer). We’ll take the next couple of days to sort through the details and have a higher level of confidence going into the weekend.
We’ll also have our February Outlook posted here tomorrow as part of Thursday’s long range video update.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/29/things-turn-more-active-early-next-week/
Jan 27
Week-Ahead Outlook And Early February Thoughts…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/27/week-ahead-outlook-and-early-february-thoughts/
Jan 13
VIDEO: Relatively Quiet Open To The Work Week; Big “Problematic” Late Week Storm…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/13/video-relatively-quiet-open-to-the-work-week-big-problematic-late-week-storm/
Jan 12
VIDEO: Week-Ahead Outlook And More On The Pending Pattern Change…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/12/video-week-ahead-outlook-and-more-on-the-pending-pattern-change/
Dec 29
VIDEO: Wet Close To The Weekend; Wintry Threats Loom…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/29/video-wet-close-to-the-weekend-wintry-threats-loom/
Dec 21
VIDEO: Timing Out When The “Other Shoe Drops…”
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/21/video-timing-out-when-the-other-shoe-drops/
Dec 15
Heavy Snow Tonight: Timing Out “Part 2” Monday And Looking Closer At The Late Month Pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/15/heavy-snow-tonight-timing-out-part-2-monday-and-looking-closer-at-the-late-month-pattern/