You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: European Model
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/20/video-warming-up-for-memorial-day-weekend-but-the-pattern-once-again-trends-cooler-to-close-may/
May 11
From One Extreme To The Other…
The work week will get off to the same unusually chilly start we’ve begun to grow accustomed to. Additional frost and freeze threats are present Tuesday and Wednesday mornings if skies can clear (big if there). However, significant changes loom as we flip the page to the second half of the work week and longer term indications suggest we’re well on our way to a true summer-like feel by week 2.
Note how bullish the European ensemble is regarding the significant pattern flip over the next couple weeks.
A lot of this is driven by a change in the EPO. This is the kind of pattern that stands to at least threaten sending high temperatures soaring to between 85°-90° between Week 2 and month’s end. Talk about a contrast from the late winter and early spring-like chill to open the month!
The transition in the pattern is likely to be met with a much more active storm track through the area beginning midweek. There will be a threat of locally heavy rain and stronger storms that will continue at times into the weekend and beyond into next week, as well.
For a month that’s gotten off to a dry start, we’ll likely recover quickly with this wetter regime that accompanies the flip to warm.
We continue to believe most central Indiana neighborhoods will see between 1.75”-2.25” late week into the weekend, but there will be locally heavier amounts. The majority of data also suggests a corridor of wetter than normal conditions sets up from the Plains into the northern Ohio Valley/ Great Lakes into Week 2.
Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/11/from-one-extreme-to-the-other/
Apr 26
VIDEO: Busy Week Ahead; Discussing The Drivers Behind What Should Be An Overall Chilly 1st Half Of May…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/26/video-busy-week-ahead-discussing-the-drivers-behind-what-should-be-an-overall-chilly-1st-half-of-may/
Apr 24
Evening Video Update: Timing Out Weekend Rain And Looking Ahead To A Chilly Open To May…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/24/evening-video-update-timing-out-weekend-rain-and-looking-ahead-to-a-chilly-open-to-may/
Apr 06
VIDEO: Timing Out Potential Strong Storms; Prolonged Chilly Pattern On The Horizon…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/06/video-timing-out-potential-strong-storms-prolonged-chilly-pattern-on-the-horizon/
Apr 05
VIDEO: Briefly Warmer And Unsettled; Reasons Behind The Significant Pattern Change Ahead…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/05/video-briefly-warmer-and-unsettled-reasons-behind-the-significant-pattern-change-ahead/
Mar 21
March To-Date And Looking Ahead…
March to-date is running warmer and wetter than average across not only central Indiana, but a good chunk of the central and eastern part of the country.
For comparative purposes, our March Temperature Outlook is above. It’ll be interesting to see how everything shakes out by month’s end.
We anticipated a wet month, as well, into the middle MS Valley into the Ohio Valley, and eastern Lakes/ Northeast.
Indianapolis is running a little more than 1″ above normal in the rainfall department, and this will grow larger as we progress through the next (10) days.
This upcoming week, alone, we expect storm systems to deliver rain Sunday PM, Tuesday PM, and again late Thursday into Friday. Widespread central Indiana rainfall totals are currently pegged between 1″ and 1.5″, but given the pattern, it wouldn’t surprise me to see those numbers increase as we go forward. Thankfully, there aren’t any storms on the immediate horizon that look to be big severe weather producers, locally.
Despite this weekend’s chill, the balance of what’s left in the month should run well above average across the eastern half of the country.
More on what we think April will provide a bit later…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/21/march-to-date-and-looking-ahead/
Mar 18
Wednesday Morning Rambles: Midweek Storms, MJO Impacts On Late March Pattern…
I. The morning is off to a quiet, chilly start, but clouds will lower and thicken through the morning and rain will soon follow. Periods of moderate to heavy rain can be expected this afternoon into the early evening hours, including widespread 0.50″ to 1″ with a few locally heavier amounts.
II. A changeable weather day is on tap Thursday with a couple of rounds of storms expected- late morning and again during the evening and night. The initial round of storms will lift northeast across the state Thursday morning into early afternoon, courtesy of a warm front. Highs will flirt with 70° tomorrow afternoon once the storms move out.
A cold front will then sweep through the region during the overnight. Additional storms (some potentially strong to severe) will take place as the front moves through the region.
III. We’ll turn MUCH colder, but at least the sunshine will return as we move through the weekend. Lows in the 20s can be expected.
IV. Our next storm system looks to arrive Tuesday. From this distance, it appears this will be a potent system, including strong winds and heavy rain.
V. Longer term, we continue to watch the various players align. The MJO looks to amplify and rumble into Phase 3 by late March. The movement through Phases 1-2 can at least generate transient cold for our neck of the woods before Phase 3 favors the brunt of the cold across the West. Interestingly, this is what the latest European ensemble is also showing.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/18/wednesday-morning-rambles-midweek-storms-mjo-impacts-on-late-march-pattern/
Mar 11
VIDEO: Storms To Snow; Long Range Update Into Late March…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/11/video-storms-to-snow-long-range-update-into-late-march/
Mar 10
Very Active Pattern Looms For Mid And Late March…
Before we get into the longer range weather pattern, rain this morning has been locally heavy in spots. Moving forward today, that rain will push east of the state and we’ll turn cooler. Temperatures will settle into the middle to upper 40s this afternoon across central Indiana.
Another couple of weak systems will scoot through the area as we push through the remainder of the work week. The first, tomorrow, will impact areas primarily to our north, however, a cold front will sweep through the state Thursday night and early Friday with light rain and an abrupt wind shift to the northwest. Rainfall amounts with the passage of this cold front should average only between a trace and 0.05″.
A third system will push east across the TN Valley Saturday into early Sunday. With marginally cold air in place across the Ohio Valley, precipitation may transition to wet snow or a mix of rain and snow along the I-70 corridor during this time frame. The northward extent of the precipitation shield is in question and we’ll have to keep a close eye on this system over the next couple of days.
As we look longer term, a tight thermal gradient is expected to setup shop across our region. This will force a cold pattern across the west with eastern seaboard warmth. We’ll be in that “back and forth” battle zone of sorts, locally.
What this will also do is help assist in a hyper storm track through the MS River Valley and Ohio Valley. Above to well above average precipitation is expected during the middle and latter part of March across our region.
Unfortunately, local landscaping companies, turf management, farmers, and others with ag interests are likely to experience delays as we move through the 2nd half of March and into early April.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/10/very-active-pattern-looms-for-mid-and-late-march/