Category: European Model

Updated 07.05.21 @ 9:08a

In case you missed it, our complete July Outlook can be found here.

The EPO (big teleconnection “driver” this time of year) is forecast to pop positive in the short-term before heading back negative mid and late month.

Simply going off of that, one could build a case of warmth returning in the short term but that it would have a hard time sustaining itself. Relative to normals, this has been the story summer-to-date.

The other key to the longer range pattern has to do with the MJO, or Madden Julian Oscillation.

Guidance suggests we’re going to move into Phases 3, 4, and 5 over the coming couple of weeks. The end result would be a continuation of active times (noted from the precipitation correlation below) before drying things out a bit in Phase 5. Similar to what the EPO is perhaps trying to tell us above, sustained heat would be hard to come by, relative to normal. All-in-all, it’s a very transient looking pattern.

When we look at computer model guidance over the next couple of weeks, the upper pattern features a predominant ridge across the West. There’s also more persistent ridging across the Northeast. In between, there’s a “weakness” and tendency for at least more of a “troughy” look in the central.

While we’ll have a couple of days here and there of hotter, more humid weather, these conditions won’t have the staying power our friends to our northeast and west will experience. In general, things should balance out very near seasonal levels.

Guidance remains quite bullish on precipitation, painting above normal rainfall through the central and a good chunk of the eastern parts of the country.

Speaking of rain, chances of rain and storms will return Wednesday as our next system approaches. Better chances of more widespread rain can be expected by the weekend. Our video discussions will handle these features and more.

Enjoy your Monday!