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Category: EPO
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Oct 22
Plot Thickens Around Halloween Into Early November…
As we look ahead to Halloween, the pattern continues to look mighty “interesting” to say the least. A deeply negative EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) will take the drivers seat and potentially lead to some early wintry “fun and games” as we close out the month and head into early November.
Ensemble data, centered on Halloween, is in excellent agreement with respect to the overall upper air pattern. That said there are subtle differences in the handling of the southeast ridge.
These seemingly subtle differences at 500mb can mean a world of difference in terms of the resulting weather we deal with here at the surface.
We’re confident there will be a rather significant weather event on or around Halloween, but caution we’re far from being able to provide details around the specifics. The early thinking is that a storm system provides a round of showers and thunderstorms just before the holiday with sharply colder conditions pouring into the area on Halloween, itself, with the threat of the first lake effect snow outbreak of the year heading into next weekend. Stay tuned. Run-to-run differences within the operational suites will be significant in the days ahead. It’s far too early to latch on to any one particular solution.
Regardless, with high latitude blocking in place, a colder than average period of weather is likely as we move through early November. The brunt of the cold, relative to normal, should be featured across the central Plains.
More on the longer range November pattern in the days ahead. Our official November Outlook will be posted over the weekend.
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Oct 21
VIDEO: Sifting Through The Noise As We Close October And Open November…
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Oct 17
Pattern Evolution Through Late October…
The teleconnections are aligning in a manner that favors a colder than average period of weather by late-October standards. Note the PNA trend positive while the EPO heads negative. The AO and NAO also follow suit.
The sum of all of the above should feature a predominant western ridge for late month with a persistent eastern trough- at times deeper than others.
Add in the fact that the MJO is anticipated to swing into Phase 2 and this further serves to increase confidence in the colder shift.
The models are focusing in on the colder close to the month and though specifics will continue to vary from run-to-run, the primary message that we want to convey is to expect a colder than average 2nd half of the month with an active storm track. As pops of more “winter-like” air get involved behind one or two of the late month storms, pre-Halloween flakes may fly across a portion of the Ohio Valley.
Given the pattern progression and anticipated teleconnection states, we think it’s wise to ensure the kiddos have a warm Halloween costume this year!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pattern-evolution-through-late-october/
Oct 15
Evening Video: A Tale Of Extended Summer That Gives Way To Sudden Winter…
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