I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing and fun Super Bowl Sunday afternoon! Before we talk longer range, trends this afternoon have been to shove the heavier snow banding potential further south tomorrow night. We’ll keep an eye on overnight model trends but the threat of accumulating wet snow is looking more likely to impact far downstate into portions of northern KY and even western and portions of north-central TN now.
Monday night’s system has trended further south today.
While we’ll trend at least closer to seasonal levels in the upcoming 10-day period (also need to keep an eye on the potential of late week snow and a brief arctic “jab”), the impact of a lack of MJO amplitude into the colder phases (8, 1) and the positive trends on the EPO late month suggest the once cold idea during the period here will be a fail.
In fact, latest ensemble guidance in today shows a milder than normal pattern to return during the last week, or so, of February.
Just a couple quick updates prior to the big game! Enjoy, friends!
Scattered showers/ embedded thunder overnight, opportunity for slushy, light snow accumulation, and long range rumblings highlight this evening’s rambles…
I. A thin line of broken showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder will push southeast across central IN during the predawn hours Saturday. More widespread, concentrated rain and embedded thunder will work across the southern 1/3 of the state overnight and early Saturday morning. Across central IN, rainfall amounts of 0.10″ to 0.25″ will be possible with this activity with more widespread 0.25″ to 0.50″ totals across the southern portion of the state.
The front will pass southeast across the region predawn Saturday with a northwest wind shift taking place from northwest to southeast prior to sunrise Saturday. Cooler (not cold by February standards) air will flow into the region over the weekend.
II. The second piece of energy that will lead to a significant rain and associated severe weather episode across the South and a big ole snowstorm for our friends across the Northeast early next week, still appears to mostly bypass our immediate region. It’s possible southern portions of the state (mostly south of Indianapolis) could see a light, slushy snow accumulation, but I think even in these areas the 1″, via today’s EPS is too “generous.” The reason? Snowfall rates, marginal temperatures, and the unseasonably warm ground. Further east, this will be a much different animal with a notable snowstorm anticipated for the central Appalachians into southern New England. Regardless, at least locally, Monday evening into Monday night would be the period to watch for the potential of the slushy wet snow accumulation potential.
III. The upcoming week will undoubtedly be much cooler than what we’ve grown accustomed to from February ’24 so far, but nothing overly cold for this time of year by any stretch of the imagination. We’ll watch for the threat of a couple of clipper systems that could deliver mixed rain/ snow or light snow, but significant snow makers aren’t on the horizon in the week ahead as of this evening. We’ll continue to closely monitor.
The opportunity is present for a shot of colder air behind one of these clippers next weekend.
IV. The reason for “pause” this morning in the long standing idea here of a return to prolonged colder than normal weather into March came from a positive trend in the EPO and what at least appears (from this distance) any sort of MJO venture into Phase 8 will be very brief. If (still a bigger “if” than we prefer) we don’t keep that EPO negative and the MJO goes into the neutral phase, even a negative NAO won’t be able to impact the area with notable cold. Can the other players on the field at least keep the period closer to average or slightly cooler than normal? Yes, but any prolonged or significant cold would be highly unlikely if the EPO/ MJO combo doesn’t come to fruition. You better believe we’ll be watching trends carefully over the weekend into early next week.
Updated 02.09.24 @ 7:14a With just enough sunshine we should easily set a new record in the city later this afternoon. Regardless, find a way to get outside and enjoy…
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In the short term, there’s really nothing of significance to discuss. We have no changes to our thinking that February opens on an unusually dry and mild note. In fact, we don’t forecast our next opportunity of measurable precipitation until late next week or next weekend.
Upcoming 10-day precipitation anomalies Upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies
Despite the well earned thaw that we’ll enjoy now, winter is far from over. In fact, not only do we forecast a return to a cold, wintry pattern around Feb 10th (give or take a day or two), but it’s easy to build a case that this should be a more prolonged cold blast when compared to its January predecessor. The reason? Alignment with the teleconnection suite (emphasizing the anticipated strong negative NAO). We also anticipate the MJO getting into Phase 8 by mid-month which opens up the window for the potential of more extreme cold.
To no surprise, the latest ensemble data is pointing towards where the pattern is heading once past the first 1/3 of February.
Once we lock into the colder pattern, thinking here is we’ll remain locked in with an overall cold signal to close Feb and open March (first 10-14 days). It may be a “rubber band” type pattern. Cold to open before an abrupt flip to significantly warmer (hot?) conditions for the second half of March.
Let’s get to the headline right out of the gate: Winter is far, far from over. While we don’t have any significant changes to our ongoing long range pattern ideas, I did want to touch on the overall regime for February into March during this evening’s discussion.
Subsequently, we’re also continuing to lean into the milder than normal pattern that will be with us as we close January and navigate the first 1/3 of February. Today’s medium range model data backs this up well.
Day 1-5
Days 5-10
Days 10-15
Overall, the next couple of weeks should also result in a drier than normal pattern, locally.
It should come as no surprise given the teleconnection suite (all in warm phases, with the exception of the PNA which will result in cooler anomalies at times across the Southeast region). We note these same teleconnections shifting towards the colder phases around, or just before the 10th of February. The Madden-Julian Oscillation also is in the notorious warm phases.
Before 2/10, any cold will be fleeting and nothing significant given the time of year. Overall, an unseasonably mild pattern will dominate.
Post 2/10, we’re going to see a shift towards colder times. A lot of this has to do with the alignment amongst the teleconnections. Throw in the MJO heading into the frigid (for this time of year) Phase 8 and you have the potential to eventually see the pattern deliver the magnitude of cold we just saw come late February. (In case you missed it, we already set the bar on the type of cold we envision developing late February).
Given the NAO heading into the tank by this point, there’s fear this particular round of cold would likely have more staying power than it’s January predecessor. “Phase 8 MJO WITH a strongly negative NAO?” Look out below…
Interestingly, the NEW European Weeklies are going right to this set-up and perhaps the most bullish I’ve seen over a 30-day period from this distance. Winter is far, far from over, indeed.
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Updated 01.25.24 @ 7:36a Dense fog is present yet again this morning, but at least we’re not dealing with heavy rain. That changes later this evening as a slug of…
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The upcoming 10-days is a case of cold and if you believe some of the guidance, even colder (next weekend). Multiple nights below zero and dangerous wind chill values of 20° to 30° below zero are on tap at times during this period. You know that we’re interested to see if we meet our respective targets. It’s not just the magnitude of the cold, but the duration and widespread nature, as shown over the upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies from last night’s European ensemble.
But milder changes are on the horizon as we rumble through the warmer phases (at least this time of year) of the MJO and see some temporary trends within our teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA) that favor a period of much less harsh, and even milder than normal conditions developing by the last week of the month.
After our frigid stretch, temperatures even only a few degrees above normal will feel like a heatwave.
The hunch here is that we return to another cold stretch as we rumble into February. Long range guidance shows “part 2” of our high latitude blocking event and the thought here is this is a byproduct of a combination of sea surface temperature (SST) configuration in the northwest ATL, the current state of our Nino, as well as the SST configuration in the central/ northern PAC. At any rate, the alignment between teleconnections and, of course, the MJO rolling into the colder phases supports this idea. Let us worry about that and you enjoy the late month “mild-up!” Heavens knows after these next couple weeks, you will have earned it!
We’ll continue to keep tabs on the threat of snow over the next couple weeks. Things can, obviously, change but as of now I’m not seeing any hefty snow threats for central Indiana. The one feature that does potentially require watching is out there towards the end of next week, but the overall fast paced flow should prevent this from deepening into anything overly significant. At least that’s the way we see it now.
We’ll continue to keep close tabs on short-term trends but feel good with what we have out there concerning rain/ snow amounts, timing of the transition, and damaging wind potential.
Updated 01.04.24 @ 6:46a Enjoy the last couple of quiet days while you have them. Skies will slowly brighten later today, but otherwise anticipate mostly cloudy and seasonably cold conditions.…
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Updated 01.02.24 @ 7:50a The next few days are quiet and will allow us to catch our breath ahead of a blitz of storm systems that start this weekend and…
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