Category: EPO

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Apr 05

Long Range Report: Pattern Evolution Into Late April; Early May…

• Filed under AO, Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, NAO, PNA, Rain, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

• April 5, 2024

Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a

The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.

The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).

If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.

The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).

The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies

The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/05/long-range-report-pattern-evolution-into-late-april-early-may/

Mar 29

Long Range Report: Active Pattern As We Head Into And Through April…

• Filed under Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Long Range Discussion, Severe Weather, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

• March 29, 2024

Updated 03.29.24 @ 6:57a

Don’t get used to any one particular pattern for any length of time over the next few weeks. “Active” will sum things up best in a single word as a transitional regime takes hold.

The NEW JMA Weeklies highlight this transitional theme best over the upcoming (4) week period.

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3/4

To no surprise, especially given the transitional nature of the pattern, the upcoming few weeks should feature above normal rainfall for a good chunk of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

We’ll also want to keep tabs on the potential of greater than average severe weather episodes, notable considering we’re almost into April. It’s a byproduct of the “topsy-turvy” look to the overall pattern.

Pattern drivers, including the EPO, back up the transitional them over the upcoming couple weeks. Reminder, negative phase favors chilly conditions and positive phases favor milder air (compared to average). This look, too, screams wet and stormy.

Bottom line, buckle up for an active storm track and associated heavier than normal rainfall over the next few weeks. Temperature regimes will feature a bit of it all, including above and below normal periods, likely all balancing out slightly above normal when all is added up.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/29/long-range-report-active-pattern-as-we-head-into-and-through-april/

Mar 09

Long Range Report: Period Opens With More Of The Same, But Cooler Than Normal For A Change Late Month…

• Filed under AO, Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, NAO, PNA, Rain, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

• March 9, 2024

Updated 03.09.24 8:14a

It’s been a very warm March. So far, Indianapolis is running nearly 13° above the average month-to-date.

In the short-term (Week 1), the pattern will remain on the milder side of normal.

That all begins to change as we move into Week 2.

This is largely driven by the MJO sprinting through the traditionally warm phases for this time of year into the colder Phase 8 late month.

The temperature composite analog for MJO Phase 8 in March during an El Nino season:

Strikingly similar to what we see above on the Week 2 charts, huh?

The teleconnection suite aligns towards a cold look by Week 2.

A potentially more significant storm system looms late next week or over St. Patrick’s Day weekend to usher in the pattern change. Otherwise, with a colder pattern than normal settling in Week 2, this will also likely lead to a drier airmass and subsequent opportunity to dry out after a wetter than normal open to March (also of note is that we’re running a little more than 1″ above normal, year-to-date).

No way to be specific with details from this distance, but given the look to the overall pattern, I’d be surprised if we end the month without an opportunity of a little wet snow with the colder transition.

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