Category: Ensemble Discussion

Updated 07.02.22 @4:45a

Thankfully, it continues to look like timing is on our side as we navigate the Independence Day holiday weekend.

A weak front moved through the region last night with scattered storms. While everyone didn’t get wet, some neighborhoods absolutely cashed in. That front will push far enough south (eventually stalling in the northern TN Valley) to allow, quieter and drier conditions to prevail today through the holiday, itself. All of those big outdoor plans should be executed without having to worry about Mother Nature throwing us any surprises (I know, famous last words, right?!).

With that said, the promised much more active (wetter) pattern is on our doorstep. The culprit? A retrograding ridge of high pressure. The GFS ensemble loop below shows this perfectly over the next couple of weeks.

This puts the Ohio Valley in a favorable position to cash in on multiple storm clusters that will ride the periphery of the hot dome well to our west. The pressure gradient between blazing hot conditions in the Plains, back into the Four Corners, combined with cooler shots of air blowing southeast from the upper Midwest and Great Lakes may “up the ante” for some of these complexes to include potential of damaging straight line winds.

Needless to say, for a region that hasn’t enjoyed widespread soaking rains in quite some time, this is good news as we approach what’s traditionally the hottest time of the year.

Guidance continues to paint a wetter than normal picture through the middle of July.

After the relatively quiet holiday weekend, the “excitement” will get underway late Monday night into Tuesday as the first in a series of storm complexes rides in from the northwest. While it most certainly won’t rain the entire time over the course of the next couple weeks, most will surely notice a significant difference in frequency of more widespread rain throughout central IN compared to of late.