Category: Ensemble Discussion

Updated 07.16.23 @ 7:44a

I. More of that good ole Canadian wild fire smoke is making for a hazy start to our day but thankfully all else is quiet. Unfortunately that won’t remain the case as we progress into the afternoon and evening hours. We’ll watch for darkening skies towards the mid to late afternoon and some potent storms will likely fire up by evening. A couple of these could pulse to severe levels and include a damaging wind and hail threat.

II. A cold front will take aim on the region from the northwest as we kick off the new work week. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of this boundary Monday afternoon and evening. Like this evening, a few of the storms will likely turn strong to severe (damaging wind and large hail the greatest concerns with the stronger cells).

III. The cold front will push south of our region Tuesday morning before stalling along the Ohio River. Rain and storm chances should shift downstate Tuesday as a drier brand of air takes hold for the northern half of the state. Dew points into the 50s are always nice in July, heh?!

IV. A secondary front will blow through the state as we wrap up the work week and help to reinforce the unseasonably refreshing airmass going into next weekend. Lows will likely even dip into the 50s at night.

That brings us to our closing point and that’s the lack of any sort of significant heat. In fact, it’s just the opposite over the next couple weeks. The general thinking is the cooler than normal regime will likely make up the bulk of August as well, especially if we can sneak into Phase 5-6 of the MJO.