Feb 21
Updated 02.21.24 @ 7:31a A gorgeous day is on tap with sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures into the middle 60s. Find a way to get out there and enjoy before…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/21/video-stunner-of-a-wednesday-gives-way-to-a-wet-stormy-thursday-spring-like-pattern-early-march/
Feb 20
Updated 02.20.24 @ 6:22p With the exception of a couple cooler (can’t even call it “cold” by late February/ early March standards) days, the pattern over the upcoming couple weeks…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/20/evening-video-mild-pattern-comes-with-heavy-rain-storm-risk-in-the-days-and-weeks-ahead/
Feb 19
Updated 02.19.24 @ 8:37a An upper level ridge will expand across the eastern portion of the country as we close February and open March. The result will be an increasingly…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/19/video-spring-like-pattern-to-close-february-and-open-march/
Feb 18
Updated 02.18.24 @ 10:59a
Though we dealt with a bitter start to the day, those strong and gusty southwest winds signal a regime change through the 1st half of the work week. Highs will pop into the 60s even by midweek- a far cry from this morning’s sub-zero “feels like” over the heart of the fresh snowpack.
The upcoming 10-day period will feature an expanding ridge across the East and the ‘mean’ trough position settling into the West.
After another brief shot of cold air this weekend, a significant unseasonably mild pattern will arrive next week. Cold settles into the West.
The developing upper air pattern will lead to a more active storm track to close February and open March. See the anticipated above normal precipitation pattern taking hold. This is likely a sign of what the balance of meteorological spring will feature.
In the week ahead, we continue to track a rain maker Wednesday night into Thursday and a brief “jolt” of cold for the weekend.
Looking ahead to next week, a more widespread and stronger storm should take aim on our area. Though still a ways off, the signal is one that looks like this feature will be able to tap into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for a more widespread, potentially, heavier rain event and also the chance of storms.
Note precipitable water values (PWATs) are forecast nearly 300% of the norm.
As we get closer, we’ll have to keep tabs on instability levels and available energy for the prospects of storms. More on this Day 8-10 feature in the coming days. Make it a great Sunday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/18/taste-of-spring-to-close-february-and-open-march-monitoring-storm-potential/
Feb 17
Updated 02.17.24 @ 8:43a
Yesterday’s snow storm was a sight for sore eyes, especially for my snow-starved central Indiana friends (you know who you are).
I took a couple of these pictures outside a cozy dinner at the Loft at Traders Point Creamery last night. “Serene” doesn’t begin to describe the evening.
Low clouds and lingering lake-driven snow flurries this morning should give way to a brightening afternoon sky. We’ll stay bitter today with the fresh heavier snowpack. Highs will struggle to make it into the middle 20s. Winds will remain gusty this morning before a bit of a “lull” and then pick up yet again overnight into Sunday morning.
Those southwest winds will indicate a flip to milder times into midweek and overall dry conditions. Rain will return overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but doesn’t appear to be overly heavy from this distance.
After spring-like highs in the 60s midweek, another cold “jab” will take aim on the region going into next weekend. We use the term “jab” as this once again won’t be a cold air mass with staying power. We likely will quickly return back into the 50s and 60s next week after a day or two in the 30s over the weekend. Timing the cold and moisture may yet again produce a round of snow late next week and we’ll continue to keep an eye on that in the days ahead.
Overall, this will likely prove to reinforce the idea that any cold over the course of the coming couple weeks will be transient in nature. “Islands of cold in a sea of milder times.” We note ensemble guidance is particularly bullish on a spring-like pattern taking foot as we close February and open March. Far too early for details, but we may need to watch for the potential of an active severe weather setup during this time period, as well.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/17/islands-of-cold-in-a-sea-of-milder-times/
Feb 15
Updated 02.15.24 @ 9:42p
Evening update: Looks like we’ll need to “beef” totals up a bit tmrw. We’ll watch overnight guidance but wouldn’t be surprised if we need to build in banding potential that may generate local 3”-4” amounts by Friday evening with tomorrow morning’s update.
A fast moving band of light rain will scoot across central IN mid-morning, but the bigger deal today will be the strong and gusty winds. Gusts upwards of 40 MPH can be expected at times. Hold onto your hats! Attention then will quickly shift to an area of light snow that will overspread the region Friday morning. While the unseasonably mild surface temperatures of late will prevent some of this snow from accumulating, a general 0.50″ to 2″ area-wide snow is expected.
More on the snow, a brief “jab” of arctic air and a look into the updated long range guidance in this morning’s Client video below:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/15/video-snow-overspreads-the-region-friday-fresh-medium-long-range-thoughts/
Feb 14
Updated 02.14.24 @ 7:51a Plentiful sunshine will be with us as we move through our Valentine’s Day along with unseasonably mild temperatures. A brief “jab” of arctic air will be…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/14/video-valentine-sunshine-brief-jab-of-arctic-air-and-snow-to-close-the-week/
Feb 12
Updated 02.12.24 @ 7:50a The feature we were watching for the potential of southern IN snow later tonight now appears to be even further south- dropping snow on our friends…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/12/video-tracking-2-systems-in-the-week-ahead-mild-signals-continue-to-mount-longer-term/
Feb 11
Updated 02.11.24 @ 3:31p
I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing and fun Super Bowl Sunday afternoon! Before we talk longer range, trends this afternoon have been to shove the heavier snow banding potential further south tomorrow night. We’ll keep an eye on overnight model trends but the threat of accumulating wet snow is looking more likely to impact far downstate into portions of northern KY and even western and portions of north-central TN now.
While we’ll trend at least closer to seasonal levels in the upcoming 10-day period (also need to keep an eye on the potential of late week snow and a brief arctic “jab”), the impact of a lack of MJO amplitude into the colder phases (8, 1) and the positive trends on the EPO late month suggest the once cold idea during the period here will be a fail.
In fact, latest ensemble guidance in today shows a milder than normal pattern to return during the last week, or so, of February.
Just a couple quick updates prior to the big game! Enjoy, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/11/pre-super-bowl-rambles-cooler-week-ahead-but-milder-late-month-trends/
Feb 10
Updated 02.10.24 @ 12p We continue to monitor the opportunity for the threat of accumulating wet snow across southern Indiana Monday evening and Monday night. This afternoon’s video has some…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/10/video-prospects-of-accumulating-wet-snow-across-southern-indiana-on-the-rise-monday-evening-night/