Category: Ensemble Discussion

Mar 22

Friday Morning Rambles: More Long Range Chatter…

Updated 03.22.24 @ 7:56a

The ‘mean’ trough position will take up shop across the western portion of the country over the upcoming week before shifting into the East in the 10-15 day period. We reiterate while the balance of the upcoming 2 weeks will run cooler than normal, we don’t see anything significantly colder than normal on the horizon and also plenty of transitional warmth ahead of approaching storms.

Note how the trough shifts east late in the period.

Day 1-5
Day 5-10
Day 10-15

Back to the immediate term, we’ll only see a few light showers later this afternoon (trace to 0.10”). Greatest coverage should arrive after lunch, continuing into mid-afternoon. Again, “light” is the key word.

Colder air arrives for the weekend, itself. We can expect mid to upper 20s both Saturday and Sunday morning.

A new, stronger, storm will blow into town with more in the way of widespread heavier rain and thunder Monday night into the day Tuesday.

Another system will follow late week and next weekend.

1” to 2” is a good bet across the greater region by next Sunday. (The bulk of this falls with our Monday night and Tuesday system).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/22/friday-morning-rambles-more-long-range-chatter/

Mar 21

VIDEO: Light Rain Returns Friday; Cooler, Wetter Than Normal Pattern Anticipated O/ The Next 2 – 3 Weeks…

Updated 03.21.24 @ 7a The area will receive a glancing blow from our late week low pressure “tag team” that will deliver light rain Friday (most areas will be under…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/21/video-light-rain-returns-friday-cooler-wetter-than-normal-pattern-anticipated-o-the-next-2-3-weeks/

Mar 20

The Transitions Of Spring…

Updated 03.20.24 @ 4:45a

Up until this week, March was off to a toasty start. Despite the recent transition to cooler air, the month is still running nearly 9° above normal.

Another surge of chilly weather will descend into the state today. A hard freeze is dialed up Thursday morning.

Light rain Friday will interrupt the otherwise dry, quiet pattern we’ve been enjoying.

This will be a nuisance variety type of rain, along with “raw” conditions to close the work week. Despite the insignificant showers, this does signal another transition towards a wetter, more active pattern ahead next week.

We continue to watch the threat of a heavier rain/ stronger storm event Monday night into Tuesday followed by another soaker late week.

A more active pattern can be expected as we close the month of March.

While the pattern does look cooler than we started the month, I still don’t see any reason to beat the drum for out of season, “harsh” cold some other sources are signaling as we go through the next couple weeks- at least not for our neck of the woods.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/20/the-transitions-of-spring/

Mar 17

VIDEO: Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.17.24 @ 8:10a The theme for the bulk of the week ahead will be both cooler and drier. A few mornings will feature a hard freeze, including overnight lows…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/17/video-weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook/

Mar 16

Long Range Report: Cooler, Drier Week 1 Turns Wetter To Close March; Open April…

Updated 03.16.24 @ 7:55a

Indianapolis is running right at average month to date from a rainfall perspective (1.78”).

We’re transitioning to a much drier pattern in the week ahead as a cooler, Canadian airmass dominates (for a change).

Several hard freezes (mid-upper 20s) are on tap in the upcoming 7-10 day period: Monday/ Tuesday morning and again late next week/ next weekend.

Cooler? Yes, but I still don’t see anything overly cold on the horizon as we navigate the next couple of weeks.

What’s more notable is the shift in the precipitation pattern over the next few weeks. The dry Week 1 (now) transitions to a significantly wetter and more active look Week 2 (below).

The JMA also sees the wetter regime.

This is forecast to continue in the Weeks 3/4 timeframe.

Continues to back up the idea of an active (wet) and stormy (more in the way of severe weather) spring as a whole.

Down the road, an eventual move into a hot, dry (compared to normal) summer may loom. (Yet one that is very active from a tropical perspective, continuing into the fall). More on that in the coming weeks…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/16/long-range-report-cooler-drier-week-1-turns-wetter-to-close-march-open-april/

Mar 15

VIDEO: Cooler Air Flows In; Impacts On Precipitation Over The Upcoming Couple Of Weeks…

Updated 03.15.24 @ 7:29a After a busy and noisy Thursday, we are thankfully able to calm things down in significant fashion today. A narrow (insignificant) band of showers may impact…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/15/video-cooler-air-flows-in-impacts-on-precipitation-over-the-upcoming-couple-of-weeks/

Mar 14

VIDEO: Timing Out 2 Rounds Of Strong-Severe Storms; Trending Cooler Into Next Week…

Updated 03.14.24 @ 7:37a We’re tracking 2 rounds of storms that’ll impact central IN today: around lunchtime and again for the evening commute. While both rounds of storms stand a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/14/video-timing-out-2-rounds-of-strong-severe-storms-trending-cooler-into-next-week/

Mar 13

Wednesday Morning Rambles: Talking Storms And A Cooler Pattern To Close Out March…

Updated 03.13.24 @ 5:44a

Most of today will be dry and unseasonably mild. We’ll watch radar trends this evening to see if storms are able to ignite, at least in widely scattered fashion. If this does, indeed, take place it would most likely be after sunset.

A better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms awaits Thursday, likely in a couple of different waves between the afternoon and evening hours.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights far western portions of the state in a Slight risk of severe weather (damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern) Thursday. We’ll watch today’s trends to see if this needs expanded further east for potential severe impacts Thursday.

We’ll transition to a general rain Friday morning before a drier theme arrives for the 1st half of the weekend. By that point, rainfall totals should check-in between 0.50” and 1” for most.

Saturday actually isn’t looking bad with the opportunity of sun and pleasant temperatures ahead of a colder push of air Sunday night. Speaking of that, temperatures should grow cold enough to allow snow to fly across the region by Monday morning. Despite the recent stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures, we can’t rule out heavier snow bursts creating a quick coating to dusting of wet snow on grassy surfaces.

Ah, storms to snow- March at its finest in the Hoosier state.

As we look ahead to the remainder of March, the pattern appears to be in position to lead to a colder than normal regime for a change. It should be noted that we don’t see any significant cold during the late month time frame, rather a setup that should drive a slightly cooler than normal pattern (overall) over the last 10 days, or so of the month.

More on how we think April opens later this week in our long range report.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/13/wednesday-morning-rambles-talking-storms-and-a-cooler-pattern-to-close-out-march/

Mar 12

VIDEO: High And Dry Now, But Changes Loom As Early As Tomorrow; Colder Pattern Takes Shape Next Week…

Updated 03.12.24 @ 5:44a High pressure will remain in control of our weather today with plentiful sunshine and unseasonably mild temperatures. More in the way of unsettled weather builds in…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/12/video-high-and-dry-now-but-changes-loom-as-early-as-tomorrow-colder-pattern-takes-shape-next-week/

Mar 11

VIDEO: Warm Times This Week Give Way To A Colder Pattern; Unsettled Late Week And Potential Of Snow By Early Next Week…

Updated 03.11.24 @ 7:51a It’s more of the same this week as unseasonably warm temperatures dominate the headlines. We’ll turn unsettled by late week and this will signal a pattern…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/11/video-warm-times-this-week-give-way-to-a-colder-pattern-unsettled-late-week-and-potential-of-snow-by-early-next-week/

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