Category: Ensemble Discussion

Aug 23

The Shift Begins…

Every year is a bit different, but typically at some point between late August and early September we get that 1st cold frontal passage that serves as a reminder a new season is upon us. This year, that frontal passage is today.

As the front continues to sink south, we’ll notice increasingly dry air building in to close the work week. Dew points will fall into the 50s by this afternoon.

Cooler air will accommodate the drier air mass. Lows across central Indiana will fall into the lower and middle 50s (not totally out of the question a few communities fall into the 40s) both Saturday and Sunday mornings.

Dry conditions will prevail today and Saturday, and most of Sunday, too, for that matter. Our next storm system will lead to an increase in cloudiness Sunday PM and a couple of showers could follow. More widespread rain is anticipated to arrive Monday into Tuesday, and could be accompanied by a few storms. Early indications would suggest we’re looking at 0.50″ to 1″ with this system.

This will be ahead of a stronger trough that will serve to reinforce the unseasonably cool air as we head into the Labor Day weekend. If you’re a fan of this weekend, you’ll absolutely love what’s on tap next weekend (shave off a few more degrees both for lows and highs)!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/23/the-shift-begins/

Aug 20

Meteorological Fall Set To Kick-Off Cooler Than Normal?

With only (11) days left in meteorological summer, thoughts continue to focus more on the upcoming fall season.

This was a photo I snapped in the Eagle Creek community back in October of 2013!

While fall foliage is still 5-6 weeks away from “prime time,” medium range computer models continue to suggest the new season will kick off on an unseasonably cool note.

Meteorological fall begins Sept. 1st and runs through the end of November. With that said, you don’t need me to tell you that Labor Day can still produce “summer-like” heat around these parts. On average across central Indiana, we’d expect Labor Day weekend to produce highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s.

That might be a different story this year as a negative EPO pattern dominates. The end result will likely feature a rather anomalous trough digging into our portion of the country to open up the new season. This is supported with solid agreement between the GEFS and EPS as shown below:

This will likely result in temperatures around 10 degrees (F) below average and most certainly serve as notice that a new season is upon us.

Now will this be an official end to summer-like warmth? Likely not, as there are reasons to believe unseasonably warm weather will build back into the region behind this cool blast. While we don’t want to use this post as our official fall outlook, despite it likely feeling very much like fall as the 1st full weekend of college football kicks off, we think there’s likely more warmth in the tank before we can signal the “all clear” on Summer ’19…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/20/meteorological-fall-set-to-kick-off-cooler-than-normal/

Aug 20

VIDEO: Severe Storm Threat Later This Afternoon; Reinforcing Cool Period Around Labor Day, And More Winter Chatter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/20/video-severe-storm-threat-later-this-afternoon-reinforcing-cool-period-around-labor-day-and-more-winter-chatter/

Aug 14

Changes Afoot…

Month-to-date, a negative EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) has dominated. The result has been for a cooler regime across the central into the interior Northeast.

Negative EPO temperature profile.
Month-to-date temperature anomalies.

That said, big changes are taking place with the EPO and it’s set to swing strongly positive as we head into the 3rd and 4th week of the month.

This correlates to a MUCH warmer/ hotter pattern across not only our portion of the country, but a large chunk of the Lower 48.

To no surprise, we see a building heat wave showing up on the medium to long range models with more consistency beginning this weekend, continuing into next week. This is the type regime that can lead to lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s for several consecutive days.

How long does the warmer pattern last? It’s all up to the EPO. As long as that baby stays positive, bet on the warmth.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/14/changes-afoot/

Aug 13

VIDEO: Trending Less Humid For Mid-Late Week; Consistency Developing In The Medium Range…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/13/video-trending-less-humid-for-mid-late-week-consistency-developing-in-the-medium-range/

Aug 03

VIDEO: Changes On The Horizon…

While the weekend will remain quiet and very pleasant by early-August standards, there are significant changes on the horizon that will help drive a cooler and increasingly active pattern as we rumble into next week and beyond.

With that said, high pressure will dominate our weekend weather- supplying plentiful sunshine, warm temperatures, and low humidity.

This morning’s video link has the details on the changes that loom:

https://youtu.be/cybWSolRluQ

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/03/video-changes-on-the-horizon/

Aug 02

VIDEO: “Hint” Of Fall Served Up Later Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/02/video-hint-of-fall-served-up-later-next-week/

Aug 01

VIDEO: Quiet Open To August Turns More Active Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/01/video-quiet-open-to-august-turns-more-active-next-week/

Jul 31

Dry Open To August, But Then What?

There’s no question that August will open dry, quiet, and downright pleasant. A lot of this is thanks to a dominating ridge of high pressure that will essentially park itself over the Ohio Valley into the early part of next week. While we continue to keep eyes on the potential of a shower or storm Sunday (especially across northern IN), the pattern overall through the upcoming week looks bone dry.

There’s no reason to disagree with the latest ensemble/ climate data and associated dry pattern depicted on the latest runs into the middle of next week.

That said, there are some key changes that take place between the current upper air pattern and what awaits in the Weeks 2-3 time period shown below.

Note the placement of the upper ridge across the 4-corners region and the prevailing northwest flow aloft across the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. This is the type pattern that should result in a rather significant “uptick” in storm systems traversing the region beginning late next week into the following week.

The latest Weeks 2-3 data is considerably different from present with respect to the overall precipitation pattern and we would agree this wetter idea has merit…

Moral of the story is that if you need to tend to significant outdoor projects over the upcoming 6-7 days, you’re in luck with an extended period of dry weather. However, we should thankfully avoid the prolonged hot, dry stretch that August can be notorious for around these parts with a significant shift towards a wetter pattern by Week 2.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/31/dry-open-to-august-but-then-what/

Jul 26

VIDEO: Dry Weekend; Looking Ahead To The Cool Pattern That Will Return Early-August…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/26/video-dry-weekend-looking-ahead-to-the-cool-pattern-that-will-return-early-august/

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