Category: Ensemble Discussion

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Oct 17

Pattern Evolution Through Late October…

• Filed under AO, Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, EPO, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Halloween, Harvest19, Long Range Discussion, MJO, NAO, PNA, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather

• October 17, 2019

The teleconnections are aligning in a manner that favors a colder than average period of weather by late-October standards. Note the PNA trend positive while the EPO heads negative. The AO and NAO also follow suit.

The sum of all of the above should feature a predominant western ridge for late month with a persistent eastern trough- at times deeper than others.

Add in the fact that the MJO is anticipated to swing into Phase 2 and this further serves to increase confidence in the colder shift.

The models are focusing in on the colder close to the month and though specifics will continue to vary from run-to-run, the primary message that we want to convey is to expect a colder than average 2nd half of the month with an active storm track. As pops of more “winter-like” air get involved behind one or two of the late month storms, pre-Halloween flakes may fly across a portion of the Ohio Valley.

Given the pattern progression and anticipated teleconnection states, we think it’s wise to ensure the kiddos have a warm Halloween costume this year!

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Oct 10

Cool 6-10 Day Period Ahead, But Then What?

• Filed under Autumn, Canadian Model, Client, Ensemble Discussion, EPO, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Harvest19, PNA, Typhoon Rule, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

• October 10, 2019

A strong cold front will sweep through the area tomorrow and help usher in the coolest air so far this autumn. This will set the tone, combined with the recurving WPAC typhoon, for a chilly upcoming 6-10 day period, but what lies beyond this period later in the month?

We turn to a couple of our more trusted teleconnections for advice.

Note the PNA “bobbing” up and down through the medium range period, with more of a negative look around the 20th. This argues for a milder stretch of weather around that time. (Further out, we’ll keep close eyes on the PNA to see if a more consistent positive signal develops as we inch closer to November).

The EPO pops strongly positive mid month which, too, argues for milder times, locally. That said, similar to the PNA above, the EPO is trending towards a scenario that would present colder times as we rumble towards November. We’ll monitor for consistency.

To no surprise, given the two primary teleconnection drivers above (remember these can change as the seasons evolve), we see the pattern set to turn milder just beyond Day 10. Note the strong agreement between the European, Canadian, and GFS ensemble data below.

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