Category: Dew points

Meteorological Fall Begins With A Fall-Like Feel…

Meteorological fall runs from Sept. 1st through Nov. 30th. With that said, it’s only fitting we feel more fall-like on this the first day of meteorological fall.  We note 24 hour dew point changes below.  The browns indicate much drier air pressing south over the next 24-36 hours.

DryAirYou’ll definitely notice the drier, crisp feel to the air upon stepping outside this morning.  If you try hard enough, you can almost smell fall!  🙂

That drier air will support multiple nights with low temperatures into the lower and middle 50s tonight through Sunday morning.  We may even have a few neighborhoods dip into the upper 40s Friday or Saturday morning.

hires_t2m_indy_55We know this is the beginning of the transitional time of the year.  Eventually, these cold fronts will back more and more of a punch as we rumble deeper into fall.  On the flip side, summer isn’t ready to go away without a fight.  In fact, temperatures well above normal will return for Labor Day, itself, and continue into the majority of next week.  A string of highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common next week.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6Longer term, there are indications that continue to support the idea of a potentially more significant cool down around mid September.  Stay tuned…

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Wednesday Morning Weather Notebook…

1.)  Humidity is on the rise this morning and scattered showers and thunderstorms will follow late morning into the early afternoon.

CODNEXLAB-1km-C_Illinois-rad-ani24-201608241115-100-100-022.)  HRRR futurecast radar delivers thunderstorms into central IN around the lunchtime hour.

13.) Scattered thunderstorms remain Thursday (some strong to severe), but drier air will briefly push in across the northern half of the region Friday.  We think from Indianapolis and points north, it’ll be a very pleasant end to the work week.  That said, “briefly” is the key word.  Moisture will surge north again Saturday and Sunday and isolated to scattered storms will follow suit.

DryMoist4.)  Attention next week will shift to the tropics.  There are many more questions than answers at this point, but understand the potential is there for significant tropical troubles next week.  Intensity and track are far from etched in stone, but if your travels take you to the Gulf Coast, we suggest you remain abreast of the latest developments- particularly the southeastern FL coast and the north-central Gulf Coast.

Here on the home front, it’s not entirely out of the equation our region deals with tropical remnants in the Week 2 time period.

Patience is required as we sort through the data in the coming days…

AL99_current

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VIDEO: So Long Pleasant Air; Storm Chances Return…

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A Wet Weekend In Store…

Screen Shot 2016-08-11 at 7.22.58 AMHighlights:

  • Tropical feel
  • Heavy weekend rains
  • Unsettled early next week

Zoning In On Heaviest Rains…It’s about as humid as it can get across central IN.  “Air you can wear” is the appropriate way to describe this humidity and overall sultry feel.  As we’d expect with this tropical air mass, isolated to widely scattered strong storms could pop at any point and result in locally heavy rain.  We’ll “rinse and repeat” today’s forecast to wrap up the work week.

Attention then shifts to a widespread soaking rain event this weekend as two main players “team up” to produce a localized flood threat.  A cold front will sag into central IN while remnant tropical moisture slowly moves north and eventually curls northeast.  Precisely where the front stalls in response to the tropical low moving north will be where heaviest (4″+) rains set up.  Thinking this morning places the greatest risk somewhere between Indianapolis and Louisville, but we caution that we still want to see a couple more model runs before settling on a given area.  Unsettled weather will likely continue into early next week as tropical moisture slowly exits stage right.

Longer term, indications point towards an overall cooler, wetter, back half of August. Times- they are ‘a changing!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″-4.00″

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Monday Evening Video Update…

Cooler, more refreshing times are building in.  Temperatures come mid week will have you asking “Is this late June?!”

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