Highlights:
- T-storms arrive this afternoon
- Heating up this week
- Stormy periods late-week
Pleasant Start; Stormy Finish…After we got rid of the low level clouds and fog Saturday, it turned out to be a gorgeous day! The balance of our Sunday will also be very pleasant, but a frontal boundary will push through the state this evening and will be sufficient enough to kick up a line of showers and thunderstorms that will impact central IN this afternoon and evening. One or two of the storms could reach severe levels (large hail and damaging wind).
As we look forward, the big weather story this week will be the increasingly hot and muggy feel by late-week. Factor in that highs will approach 90° the second half of the week, along with dew points exceeding 70° and the stage will be set for a truly “oppressive” feel. Prepare to sweat.
Along with the increasingly heat and humidity, we’ll also note an increase in overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the late-week stretch. Individual disturbances will create periods of more widespread storms and with such a moisture rich air mass in place, expect periods of locally heavy rainfall.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″
Highlights:
A quick step outside this morning will tell the story on just how different it feels. Gone is the refreshing air mass we enjoyed over the weekend and in return we’ve transitioned to an oppressive, tropical feel. Dew points will remain in the 70s through the majority of the work week and precipitable water values will reach 2″+ at times. With such a moisture laden air mass in place, flash flooding will likely result for some communities as the storms continue to track over the same areas this week.
Additional waves of thunderstorms will impact the region through mid-and-late week before we advect some drier air into the state Friday evening into the weekend. Despite the lower dew points and cooler air, we still can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm this weekend as a secondary front settles south.
The Gulf of Mexico is boiling warm (running 1°-3° C above normal) and this will aid in transporting moisture-rich air north. As storms eject out of the Rockies and Plains, one would tend to believe anomalously warm dew points and precipitable water values will be available.
The JMA Weeklies show an active stretch developing as we progress through the next few weeks.
As we rumble deeper into the spring months, the mean trough position should be located across the west. The end result should be a mean storm track that runs into the Ohio Valley- courtesy of resistance from an eastern ridge (that warm water in the Gulf and East Coast screams the mean ridge position should be located across the east coast). Confidence is greater than normal on a busy severe weather season.
You’ll definitely notice the drier, crisp feel to the air upon stepping outside this morning. If you try hard enough, you can almost smell fall! 🙂
We know this is the beginning of the transitional time of the year. Eventually, these cold fronts will back more and more of a punch as we rumble deeper into fall. On the flip side, summer isn’t ready to go away without a fight. In fact, temperatures well above normal will return for Labor Day, itself, and continue into the majority of next week. A string of highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common next week.
Longer term, there are indications that continue to support the idea of a potentially more significant cool down around mid September. Stay tuned…