Updated 06.29.24 @ 8:50a Talk about H-U-M-I-D! We’re certainly dealing with “air you can wear” out the door this morning, and this tropical feel is helping power our unsettled start…
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A secondary cold front will drop southeast across the state Tuesday. While we’re not anticipating any sort of widespread significant rain and storms with this frontal passage, it will be the best opportunity for rain over the next 10-14 days, overall. Best chances of precipitation will come after 5p from a weakening line of showers and storms to our northwest.
Best chances of measurable rain will be to the northwest of immediate central Indiana.
Reinforcing dry, cool air will filter into the region as we close the work week and get set to head into the Labor Day weekend. Here’s a bit of advice: please be sure to make time to get outside and enjoy this pleasant airmass as major changes await over the weekend and into next week. Until then, our late week stretch will feature overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
The upper ridge will begin to build back northeast over the holiday weekend and with it will come another round of unseasonably hot, humid conditions. While it might not be quite as miserable as what we dealt with last week, chances are that we’ll have to contend with several days of 100°+ heat indices and “jungle-like” humidity with an extended period of rain-free days deep into the Week 2 timeframe. Buckle up.
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I. We can already feel a difference in the nature of the airmass this morning, but there’s a much bigger push of dry air inbound tonight. By Monday morning, dew points across central Indiana will fall into the 40s and 50s- a far cry from the oppressive “jungle-like” dew points from last week. Talk about a breath of fresh air. The good news in this pleasant airmass will hold through the middle of the week.
A refreshing air mass will filter into the state tonight.
II. While we can’t totally rule out a shower this afternoon, most of the period will remain rain-free between now and Wednesday. Look for plentiful sunshine through this period as well.
Rain and storm chances will return towards the latter part of the week. While we’re not expecting any sort of washout, it’ll be a good idea to have a Plan B in mind from Thursday through the weekend in the event a storm cluster threatens from time to time.
III. Over the next couple weeks, the primary pattern drivers continue to look like a combo of the EPO and PNA- both of which will, for the most part, be in favorable phases to deliver seasonal to slightly cooler than normal conditions across our neck of the woods. At times, it’s appeared like the MJO will start to amplify, but that hasn’t been the case and doesn’t appear to be a big player in our pattern through mid August, at least. Bottom line, our idea is that August features seasonal temperatures, as a whole, with slightly above normal rainfall throughout central Indiana. (For perspective, the average high at IND in August is 84.3° with an average low of 65°. On average, we pick up nearly 3.5″ of rain during any given August).
The most anomalous and long-lasting heat should continue to be featured across Plains and points west with coolest anomalies across the Northeast.
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