Sep 24
Updated 09.24.24 @ 2:04p Now that we officially have Helene, concern is present that she will go through a period of rapid strengthening over the next couple of days. This…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/09/24/early-afternoon-thoughts-on-helene-and-impacts-up-this-way/
Aug 11
Updated 08.11.24 @ 8:50a We couldn’t ask for better weather (at least by mid-August standards) to wrap up the weekend! Get out and enjoy it, friends! A weakening disturbance will…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/08/11/all-is-quiet-to-open-the-week-before-changes-take-place-late-week/
Apr 04
Updated 04.04.24 @ 7:40a A big ole upper low will move only sluggishly over the next day or two, keeping clouds, light precipitation, and chilly temperatures around. The good news?…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/04/video-trending-in-the-right-direction-as-we-open-the-weekend-but-still-have-to-get-through-a-couple-damp-chilly-days/
Dec 27
Updated 12.27.23 @ 6:55a
A big ole slow moving cut off upper level low pressure system will pinwheel out of the upper Midwest this morning into the TN Valley and Southeast by the weekend.
These features are always known for “surprises” and it’s up to forecasters, including yours truly, to eliminate those surprises over the next couple days. The challenging part with this particular setup is that colder air will be arriving into the region as the more organized bands of precipitation are pivoting south. Precipitation intensity will also be a big player in this event. The heavier, or more intense, precipitation rates will be able to cool the column of air perhaps a bit quicker than most short term model guidance may currently see.
So what does this all mean to me? Today is quiet. After patchy fog burns off, we’re looking at more in the way of sunshine building in. The initial band of precipitation will likely setup tonight across southwestern Indiana. While this will start out as a cold rain, precipitation should switch over to snow prior to sunrise and some localized wet accumulation of snow is likely across Southwest Indiana by daybreak Thursday.
Meanwhile, back up this way, after a dry start to the day, precipitation is expected to become more widespread by early to mid afternoon. As nightfall sets in, rain will likely turn to wet snow showers. Admittedly tricky trying to determine where the steadiest band of precipitation will prevail, the best idea at this point will be across west-central Indiana, including places like Frankfort, Lafayette, Crawfordsville, and Terre Haute. Here, light wet snow accumulation of 1” to 2” seems like a good bet by Friday morning.
Precipitation will diminish from north to south across western Indiana Friday morning. Dry conditions will return until a reinforcing jab of cold air arrives New Year’s Day with scattered snow showers.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/27/cut-off-upper-low-weathermans-woe/
Dec 26
Updated 12.26.23 @ 6:16a We begin to turn cooler through the day and this sets the tone for a more seasonable close to the year. We’ll continue to watch the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/26/video-turning-cooler-couple-chances-of-light-precipitation/
Dec 25
Updated 12.25.23 @ 6:58a
From our family to yours, we wish you warmest Christmas blessings and a joyous holiday season!
After a dry start to the day, rain will lift north and overspread central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon. A few moderate showers are likely at times. Rainfall coverage and intensity will diminish significantly as we move through mid and late evening. Though there will be a few exceptions, generally 0.50” to 0.75” will fall south of the I-70 corridor with amounts of 0.25” to 0.50” north of I-70.
Strong southeasterly winds and unseasonably mild temperatures can also be expected today. Gusts will approach 40 MPH this afternoon across all of the region.
Our weather will dry out Tuesday and Wednesday but by this time all eyes will be poised to our west as we wait in the cold core upper level low to pivot across the region. While there won’t be a lot of cold air readily available for this system to tap into, we’ll have to see if it can manufacture its own cold air to create some potential localized winter weather “issues” for portions of the southern Ohio Valley and especially the Appalachians prior to the New Year’s weekend. For now, we’ll forecast a mix of rain and snow here Thursday- just know that we’ll likely have to firm that up once the details become clearer regarding the exact track of the upper low. As the ole saying goes, “cold core upper low, weatherman’s woe.” Solutions range from a cold rain to a localized accumulating wet snow event…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/25/wishing-you-a-very-merry-christmas-and-a-blessed-holiday-season/
Oct 14
Updated 10.14.23 @ 7:43a I. An upper low and trough of low pressure will lead to a return of cloudiness, additional nuisance variety showers along with gusty winds and falling…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/14/saturday-morning-rambles-12/
Oct 13
Updated 10.13.23 @ 7:25a
I’ve had the opportunity this week to spend time with family and loved ones in the gorgeous western NC and eastern TN mountains. Fall foliage is starting to pop above 2,000 feet, especially after the cooler air this week.
At any rate, thank you for your patience and flexibility this week as posts have been a bit off schedule. We’ll resume “normal programming” Saturday.
When we look ahead to this week, there are 2 storms of note. The easy and obvious first system will deliver a round of storms this evening. A few of these will have gusty winds and a few leftover “backlash” showers will continue through the weekend as the upper low swirls overhead. Once again, we’ll turn much cooler tonight and continue into the new week.
Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be common for central and southern Indiana with heavier amounts of 1” to 1.5” across the northern 1/3 of the state.
Our second system is much more complex and will come into the picture late week (next Friday/ Saturday time frame). Guidance agrees on the energy becoming cut off from the main steering flow but is far from etched in stone with the specifics at this distance. It’ll certainly be a topic of discussion in the days ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/13/tracking-2-storms-in-the-week-ahead/
Sep 20
Updated 09.20.23 @ 7:33a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/20/video-case-of-the-haves-and-have-nots/
Sep 05
Updated 09.05.23 @ 7:55a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/05/video-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year-where-things-can-get-busy-quickly-trending-unsettled-and-cooler-to-close-the-week/