Category: ClientBrief

Stripe Of Accumulating Wet Snow Falls Tonight; Blustery Sunday To Follow…

Updated 01.27.24 @ 1:46p

An area of low pressure continues to organize in northeastern MS this afternoon and will move northeast into the lower Ohio Valley before transferring energy off to a secondary (and eventually “primary”) low that will take control Sunday off the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast.

Rain will lift north into central Indiana through the late afternoon and evening, falling moderately at times tonight. As just enough cold air pours into the backside of the low, rain will transition to a wet snow after midnight. We note high resolution guidance is also becoming more “excited” about the potential of a narrow deformation band of precipitation that may setup shop across portions of central Indiana into northeastern parts of the state Sunday morning. If this does, indeed, take place, a wet “thump” of snow to the tune of 1″ to 2″ can be expected by 9a Sunday. That said, even hours away from this event, “bust potential” is still much higher than normal. Should we not realize the narrow band of heavier precipitation rates, it’ll be difficult if not impossible to get the column to cool enough to generate a band of accumulating snow.

All in all, still a far cry from anything significant, but this could surprise a few folks Sunday morning all the same. Most, if not all of this wet snow will be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces, but there could also be a few slick spots early Sunday morning during periods of heavier snowfall rates.

Speaking of Sunday, we turn quite blustery with northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30+ MPH and highs in the middle 30s. Dry conditions will return after the early morning snow departs.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stripe-of-accumulating-wet-snow-falls-tonight-blustery-sunday-to-follow/

Rain Returns; Wet Snow Accumulation For Some Sunday Morning…

Saturday will once again dawn on a gloomy note, with cloudy skies, areas of dense fog, and drizzle, but we’re not looking at measurable rainfall across central Indiana until we…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rain-returns-wet-snow-accumulation-for-some-sunday-morning/

Client Brief: Rain To Snow? Yes, But Bigger Deal Damaging Wind Potential And Bitter Cold…

Updated 01.10.24 @ 5:33p

Type: Severe Winter Weather

A prolonged period of strong, gusty, and potentially damaging winds will develop Friday into Saturday.
Expected maximum wind gusts

What: Rain changing to snow; prolonged period of strong winds, and bitter cold

When: Friday, 1/12/24 and Saturday, 1/13/24

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Temperatures: Middle 40s Friday falling below freezing Friday night and below zero by Sunday morning.

Pavement Impacts: Salting will be required Friday night through the weekend.

Summary: A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will track through central Indiana Friday. What will likely be a SLP in the low 990s (millibars) Friday morning is liable to be in the low 970mb range by Friday night in southern Michigan. This will undoubtedly lead to a “big blow” across all of the region as we close out the work week and head into the weekend and that’s where we want to start with the headlines. A prolonged period of 20-30 MPH winds with gusts close to 50 MPH can be expected during this time frame.

As far as precipitation goes, rain is forecast to move into central Indiana Friday morning, falling heavy at times. If you have travel plans up north across northern Indiana, more in the way of wet snow is forecast during this time period. We’re not expecting to transition to snow until after sunset Friday (from west to east) as colder air pours in on the backside of the strengthening low. Snow showers will continue to fall into Saturday morning and with the strong and gusty northwest winds in place, lowered visibility and some slick spots can be expected across the region. Only light snow amounts are forecast, locally, to the tune of 0.50″ to 1.50″, but good luck measuring that in all of the wind. Scattered snow showers (arctic haze) will continue into Sunday as brutal arctic air oozes into the region.

Confidence: High

Next update: 7:30a Thr

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-rain-to-snow-yes-but-bigger-deal-damaging-wind-potential-and-bitter-cold/

Client Brief: Thursday Evening Update…

Updated 03.02.23 @ 11:03p

Type: Flooding and Severe Weather; North-Central IN Wet Snow

What: Heavy rain and severe weather; north-central Indiana heavy wet snow

When: Friday, 3/3/23

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Summary: A deepening area of low pressure will track into the central Ohio Valley as we close the work week. This will lead to an expanding area of heavy precipitation through the overnight and into Friday morning. Precipitation will fall in the form of heavy rain across central portions of the region, including the Indianapolis area, along with a flood threat. Further north, heavy wet snow will develop across northern IN, into the greater CHI area and into central MI. Note: Early 00z guidance is shifting this area of low pressure further southeast which puts more of north-central parts of the state in play for wet snow accumulation Friday afternoon. We’ll continue to monitor overnight trends but the possibility is there that the rain-snow line will have to shift south compared to what most of the data has been showing the past couple of days. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2”+ can be expected into central IN along with non-thunderstorm gusts of 50+ MPH.

We bracket the 1p to 4p window for the threat of severe storms. This risk lies from Indianapolis proper and points south. We anticipate a line of storms to “bow” out, leading to an elevated damaging wind threat across southern IN during this time period but we also note the potential of a couple of quick spin-up tornadoes within this line of storms, as well. It’ll be important to have a means of getting any and all warnings Friday. Keep tuned to local media or have a way to receive the latest National Weather Service updates. All of the “action,” including the heavy rain threat is expected to wind down Friday evening, including much calmer and quieter conditions returning Friday night.

We’ll be back with a fresh video discussion no later than 7:30a Friday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-thursday-evening-update/

Client Brief: Heavy Snow Storm Rolls Into Town Overnight…

Updated 01.24.23 @ 6p

Type: Winter Storm

What: Heavy snow and gusty winds

When: Overnight tonight through Wednesday afternoon

Temperatures: Lower 30s

Wind: E 10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH across southeastern IN. Shifting to the north Wednesday PM.

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal due to the wet nature of the snow

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.

Summary: Central Indiana remains on deck for a heavy snow storm that will begin late tonight across southern IN, reaching the city itself, between 1a and 2a. Snow will quickly become heavy at times, including rates of over 1″ per hour. Needless to say, area roadways, including primary roads, will quickly become snow covered. Latest guidance is also suggesting embedded convective snow bands (thunder snow is not out of the question) will pivot into the city and surrounding areas, especially just west and north, mid and late morning. This “deformation band” will likely lead to jackpot totals approaching double-digits, and we’ve beefed our snowfall forecast up to account for these bands. “System” snow will end from southwest to northeast as we progress through the afternoon. We’ll then await on upper level energy to deliver additional light to moderate snow at times Thursday (additional light accumulation can be expected). Buckle up, there’s additional winter weather to follow…

Confidence: High

Next Update: 7:30a Wed.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-heavy-snow-storm-rolls-into-town-overnight/