Category: ClientBrief

Mar 14

Client Brief: Severe Weather Episode On Track Tonight…

Updated 03.14.24 @ 4:16p

Type: Severe Weather Outbreak

What: Severe weather outbreak

When: Tonight between 6p and midnight

Wind: Potential of straight line winds in excess of 60 MPH

Temperatures: Lower 70s falling into the 40s after midnight

Summary: While all is quiet on the radar as we type this, things will change quickly through the next hour, or so. We anticipate storms to initialize across the region around 6p and quickly intensify. Downstream radar and satellite trends pose a concerning look this afternoon, including several super cells and this activity is expected to expand into central IN through the evening. All modes of severe weather are possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Please heed all warnings and have your severe weather safety plan activated through the evening. Thankfully, we still anticipate rapidly improving conditions north to south towards 11p to midnight.

Confidence: High

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/14/client-brief-severe-weather-episode-on-track-tonight/

Jan 27

Stripe Of Accumulating Wet Snow Falls Tonight; Blustery Sunday To Follow…

Updated 01.27.24 @ 1:46p

An area of low pressure continues to organize in northeastern MS this afternoon and will move northeast into the lower Ohio Valley before transferring energy off to a secondary (and eventually “primary”) low that will take control Sunday off the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast.

Rain will lift north into central Indiana through the late afternoon and evening, falling moderately at times tonight. As just enough cold air pours into the backside of the low, rain will transition to a wet snow after midnight. We note high resolution guidance is also becoming more “excited” about the potential of a narrow deformation band of precipitation that may setup shop across portions of central Indiana into northeastern parts of the state Sunday morning. If this does, indeed, take place, a wet “thump” of snow to the tune of 1″ to 2″ can be expected by 9a Sunday. That said, even hours away from this event, “bust potential” is still much higher than normal. Should we not realize the narrow band of heavier precipitation rates, it’ll be difficult if not impossible to get the column to cool enough to generate a band of accumulating snow.

All in all, still a far cry from anything significant, but this could surprise a few folks Sunday morning all the same. Most, if not all of this wet snow will be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces, but there could also be a few slick spots early Sunday morning during periods of heavier snowfall rates.

Speaking of Sunday, we turn quite blustery with northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30+ MPH and highs in the middle 30s. Dry conditions will return after the early morning snow departs.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/27/stripe-of-accumulating-wet-snow-falls-tonight-blustery-sunday-to-follow/

Jan 26

Rain Returns; Wet Snow Accumulation For Some Sunday Morning…

Saturday will once again dawn on a gloomy note, with cloudy skies, areas of dense fog, and drizzle, but we’re not looking at measurable rainfall across central Indiana until we…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/26/rain-returns-wet-snow-accumulation-for-some-sunday-morning/

Jan 10

Client Brief: Rain To Snow? Yes, But Bigger Deal Damaging Wind Potential And Bitter Cold…

Updated 01.10.24 @ 5:33p

Type: Severe Winter Weather

A prolonged period of strong, gusty, and potentially damaging winds will develop Friday into Saturday.
Expected maximum wind gusts

What: Rain changing to snow; prolonged period of strong winds, and bitter cold

When: Friday, 1/12/24 and Saturday, 1/13/24

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Temperatures: Middle 40s Friday falling below freezing Friday night and below zero by Sunday morning.

Pavement Impacts: Salting will be required Friday night through the weekend.

Summary: A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will track through central Indiana Friday. What will likely be a SLP in the low 990s (millibars) Friday morning is liable to be in the low 970mb range by Friday night in southern Michigan. This will undoubtedly lead to a “big blow” across all of the region as we close out the work week and head into the weekend and that’s where we want to start with the headlines. A prolonged period of 20-30 MPH winds with gusts close to 50 MPH can be expected during this time frame.

As far as precipitation goes, rain is forecast to move into central Indiana Friday morning, falling heavy at times. If you have travel plans up north across northern Indiana, more in the way of wet snow is forecast during this time period. We’re not expecting to transition to snow until after sunset Friday (from west to east) as colder air pours in on the backside of the strengthening low. Snow showers will continue to fall into Saturday morning and with the strong and gusty northwest winds in place, lowered visibility and some slick spots can be expected across the region. Only light snow amounts are forecast, locally, to the tune of 0.50″ to 1.50″, but good luck measuring that in all of the wind. Scattered snow showers (arctic haze) will continue into Sunday as brutal arctic air oozes into the region.

Confidence: High

Next update: 7:30a Thr

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/10/client-brief-rain-to-snow-yes-but-bigger-deal-damaging-wind-potential-and-bitter-cold/

Mar 02

Client Brief: Thursday Evening Update…

Updated 03.02.23 @ 11:03p

Type: Flooding and Severe Weather; North-Central IN Wet Snow

What: Heavy rain and severe weather; north-central Indiana heavy wet snow

When: Friday, 3/3/23

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Summary: A deepening area of low pressure will track into the central Ohio Valley as we close the work week. This will lead to an expanding area of heavy precipitation through the overnight and into Friday morning. Precipitation will fall in the form of heavy rain across central portions of the region, including the Indianapolis area, along with a flood threat. Further north, heavy wet snow will develop across northern IN, into the greater CHI area and into central MI. Note: Early 00z guidance is shifting this area of low pressure further southeast which puts more of north-central parts of the state in play for wet snow accumulation Friday afternoon. We’ll continue to monitor overnight trends but the possibility is there that the rain-snow line will have to shift south compared to what most of the data has been showing the past couple of days. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2”+ can be expected into central IN along with non-thunderstorm gusts of 50+ MPH.

We bracket the 1p to 4p window for the threat of severe storms. This risk lies from Indianapolis proper and points south. We anticipate a line of storms to “bow” out, leading to an elevated damaging wind threat across southern IN during this time period but we also note the potential of a couple of quick spin-up tornadoes within this line of storms, as well. It’ll be important to have a means of getting any and all warnings Friday. Keep tuned to local media or have a way to receive the latest National Weather Service updates. All of the “action,” including the heavy rain threat is expected to wind down Friday evening, including much calmer and quieter conditions returning Friday night.

We’ll be back with a fresh video discussion no later than 7:30a Friday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/02/client-brief-thursday-evening-update/

Jan 24

Client Brief: Heavy Snow Storm Rolls Into Town Overnight…

Updated 01.24.23 @ 6p

Type: Winter Storm

What: Heavy snow and gusty winds

When: Overnight tonight through Wednesday afternoon

Temperatures: Lower 30s

Wind: E 10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH across southeastern IN. Shifting to the north Wednesday PM.

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal due to the wet nature of the snow

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.

Summary: Central Indiana remains on deck for a heavy snow storm that will begin late tonight across southern IN, reaching the city itself, between 1a and 2a. Snow will quickly become heavy at times, including rates of over 1″ per hour. Needless to say, area roadways, including primary roads, will quickly become snow covered. Latest guidance is also suggesting embedded convective snow bands (thunder snow is not out of the question) will pivot into the city and surrounding areas, especially just west and north, mid and late morning. This “deformation band” will likely lead to jackpot totals approaching double-digits, and we’ve beefed our snowfall forecast up to account for these bands. “System” snow will end from southwest to northeast as we progress through the afternoon. We’ll then await on upper level energy to deliver additional light to moderate snow at times Thursday (additional light accumulation can be expected). Buckle up, there’s additional winter weather to follow…

Confidence: High

Next Update: 7:30a Wed.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/24/client-brief-heavy-snow-storm-rolls-into-town-overnight/

Dec 22

Client Brief: Use This Morning To Finalize Prep For Blizzard Conditions And Dangerous Cold Tonight – Christmas Eve…

Updated 12.22.22 @ 7:40a

Type: Severe Winter Weather

What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures

When: Late this afternoon through Christmas Eve

Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).

Wind: NW 15-25 MPH, shifting to the WSW and increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Severe

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.

Summary: Light rain is overspreading central Indiana this morning as moisture is slowly pulled northward ahead of the approaching arctic cold front. That arctic front is still expected to plow across the state this afternoon (just after lunchtime across western IN, between 3p and 4p for Indianapolis, and by 7p – 8p for our far eastern IN neighbors). Once the front hits, you’ll notice a dramatic wind shift to the northwest and increase to 20-30 MPH with higher gusts, along with a temperature plummet. We’ll likely see temperatures fall more than 20° in less than 90 minutes once the arctic front passes.

As all of this is taking shape, a wave of low pressure will move from southwest IN late afternoon into eastern MI by Friday morning. Long time Hoosiers know that’s a classic track to deposit a nice snowstorm around these parts. Rain will change to snow in the city around, or just after, 4p and we’ll notice the swath of snow growing in overall coverage and intensity as the low pressure system deepens. Periods of heavy snow can be expected at times tonight.

Meanwhile, winds will continue to increase to 25-35 MPH sustained with gusts to 50 MPH tonight, continuing through the day Friday and into the first portion of Christmas Eve morning. These persistent strong winds won’t only potentially lead to power outages, but continuous blowing and drifting issues through the aforementioned period. Blizzard and whiteout conditions will continue at times. Snow removal efforts will likely have to continue into Christmas Eve to account for the severe blowing and drifting on area roadways, especially north-south roadways. While the heavy snow will come to an end early Friday morning, light snow and blowing snow will persist through the day Friday and into early Christmas Eve morning.

Finally, the dangerous cold is going to be a big problem with this multi-faceted winter storm. After we fall to below zero Friday morning, highs on Friday likely won’t make it back much above 0°. Add in the wind and wind chill values of more than 30° below zero can be expected.

Confidence: High

Next Update: This evening (video discussion)


Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/22/client-brief-use-this-morning-to-finalize-prep-for-blizzard-conditions-and-dangerous-cold-tonight-christmas-eve/

Dec 21

Client Brief: Dangerous Cold & Blizzard Conditions Arrive Thursday Night Into Friday…

Updated 12.21.22 @ 1:31p

Type: Severe Winter Weather

What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures

When: Thursday PM through Christmas Eve

Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).

Wind: WSW 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Severe

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.

Summary: Precipitation is anticipated to overspread central IN Thursday morning in the form of a light cold rain. Light rain will continue into the early afternoon hours with temperatures ranging anywhere from the mid to upper 30s. The arctic front will arrive into the city, itself around 4p to 5p and this is when we expect rain to quickly change to snow. As this takes place, surface low pressure is expected to ride northeast from southwest IN into northwester/ north-central Ohio, allowing a blossoming area of more widespread, heavier snow to fall across the region Thursday evening, continuing through the overnight period. To make matters more hazardous, temperatures will fall from the aforementioned mid-upper 30s early afternoon into the single digits by 9p to 10p. The rapid temperature fall will allow any/ all moisture to freeze and further complicate travel with the increasing snowfall rates.

Forecast models this afternoon are split between (2) camps: the weaker and more progressive NAM and European, and the more “revved up” GFS and Canadian guidance. With that said, we’ll lean towards the European/ NAM blend to build our snowfall forecast below (good luck measuring whatever falls ;-)), but will continue to keep a close eye on trends through the evening and tonight. Side note: We’ll have a more detailed video discussion posted this evening that will dive into the very latest data trends with our current storm, look ahead to another snow maker on deck early next week, a significant warm-up, and subsequent return of cold, wintry conditions. 

If all of this wasn’t enough, winds will increase in speed and turn gusty through the evening Thursday, continuing into and through the day on Friday, as well as Christmas Eve. Periodic gusts upwards of 40 to 50 MPH will lead to severe blowing and drifting snow, whiteout and blizzard conditions during this period. We strongly advise against traveling Thursday evening through Friday. “Wrap around” lighter snow and snow showers are expected to continue through the day Friday with temperatures struggling to make it much above the 0° mark. Severe blowing and drifting snow and blizzard conditions will continue Friday to combine with the dangerous cold.

The prolonged nature of such strong winds, combined with expected snowfall amounts will continue to lead to hazardous travel through Christmas Eve. Unfortunately, winds aren’t expected to diminish until Christmas morning. By this point, all eyes will be focused on the next snow maker due in here late Christmas night or early Monday in the form of a clipper system.

More on all of this later this evening in our updated video discussion.

Confidence: High

Next Update: By 7p Wednesday (video discussion)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/21/client-brief-dangerous-cold-blizzard-conditions-arrive-thursday-night-into-friday/

Dec 19

Client Brief: Blizzard Conditions Develop Friday Into Christmas Eve…

Updated 12.19.22 @ 5:46p

Type: Severe Winter Weather

What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures

When: Thursday PM through Saturday

Temperatures: Falling from the lower 40s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).

Wind: WSW 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 55-60 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Severe

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.

Summary: Normally, we wait another 24 hours closer to the onset of the storm before we initiate our official Client Briefs, but the combination of the intensity of this storm along with the timeframe when many folks will have travel plans, we wanted to get this product out earlier than normal. We strongly encourage having travel completed by Thursday evening.

In short, a severe winter storm continues to look like it’ll take aim on the region as we navigate the day Thursday. Rain is expected to develop during the day before mixing with and transitioning to snow Thursday night. Snow will become heavy at times Thursday night into the day Friday. Initially, this will be a heavy, wet snow, but as the arctic airmass engulfs the area, the “paste-like” snow will quickly transition to powder. Needless to say, the standard 10:1 measurements won’t work with this storm as the fluff factor kicks into high gear.

Unfortunately as this transition in snow type is taking place, winds will begin to increase. We anticipate major problems from severe blowing and drifting of snow by Friday, continuing through Christmas Eve. During the aforementioned time period, wind gusts in excess of 55 MPH will be possible. This will lead to impassable roadways across many areas, especially within the heavier snow zones below. Speaking of snow, we need another 24 – 36 hours before we can get more specific than included below. Areas across southern and eastern IN not currently within the “heavy snow zones” will still see several inches of accumulation and their own blowing/ drifting issues. Blizzard conditions can be expected across the entire area from a combination of the falling snow, snow already on the ground, and damaging wind gusts Friday into Christmas Eve. Drifts will be measured in feet, especially in the “open country.”

I’d like to encourage everyone to prepare for the bitterly cold airmass that will also grab headlines. Be thinking of ways to keep warm should you lose power. Unfortunately, with the expected wind, power outages will become an issue across the region. Please take the time now to inspect your winter storm safety kit and heed all products from the National Weather Service.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Tuesday morning (video discussion)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/19/client-brief-blizzard-conditions-develop-friday-into-christmas-eve/

Feb 23

Client Brief: (2) Waves Of Wintry Precipitation Set To Impact Area…

Updated 02.23.22 @ 5:15p

Type: Impactful wintry weather

A light mixture of snow and freezing rain will overspread the region during the evening, continuing into the overnight hours.

What: Impactful wintry weather

When: Tonight and Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon through predawn Friday 

Temperatures: Middle 20s to lower 30s

Wind: East Northeast 10-20 MPH, shifting to the north late Thursday

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal across n-central Indiana

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required across n-central Indiana and points north. Salting required across southern and central Indiana.

Summary: (2) waves of moisture will stream over central Indiana between this evening and predawn Friday. The initial, lead wave of precipitation will feature a mixture of light snow, light sleet, and light freezing rain. “Light” is the key word, but area roadways will likely become slick through the evening and into tonight- including in and around Indianapolis-proper. In and around the I-70 corridor and points north, this precipitation is expected to primarily fall in the form of snow. Further south, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain is anticipated. While this will be light in nature, precipitation should be rather persistent, lasting up until, or just after, sunrise. By sunrise, areas in and around Indy and points north can expect between 0.50″ and 1.50″ of snow (should sleet mix in, amounts will be closer to the lighter end of the spectrum vs. if we stay mostly snow, amounts closer to 1.5″ can be expected). Further south, a light glaze (up to 0.1″) and light sleet is expected to be the predominant precipitation type with this initial wave of moisture.

We’ll then undergo a “lull” in the action mid morning into the early afternoon hours, but low pressure will be organizing off to our southwest and have eyes set on a northeast trek into the southern portion of the state Thursday evening. This will be when we anticipate the heavier precipitation to move across the region. Across southern IN, this should primarily fall in the form of a cold rain, but further north the same can’t be said: a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to redevelop Thursday afternoon and continue into the night before ending as light snow. Across n-central IN and points to the MI/ IL state line, all snow is anticipated.

Precipitation will diminish from southwest to northeast predawn Friday with high pressure regaining control of our weather to close out the work week (just a few light lingering snow showers are expected Friday). Please see our updated snow and ice forecast below that includes total amounts for both parts of this event.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 7:30a Thursday

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/23/client-brief-2-waves-of-wintry-precipitation-set-to-impact-area/

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