Category: Client

Feb 03

Pre Super Bowl Rambles: Stormy Pattern Shifts To A Return Of Significant Cold?

In the short-term, there’s no getting around the very active pattern in place. As we’ve been discussing, we’ll find ourselves “smack dab” in the middle of a battle ground between a stubborn southeast ridge and building cold to our northwest. The fight in between will yield well above normal precipitation over the next couple of weeks.

Over the upcoming (10) days, expect a roller coaster ride in the temperature department as the battle takes place. While the most anomalous warmth is taking place now (IND is on pace to set a new record high temperature before the end of the day), relative warmth will continue to dominate into midweek before colder air presses and wins out.

After Monday’s light rain, we’re targeting (3) opportunities for significant precipitation across the region:

I. Tuesday night-Wednesday (still may include a risk of freezing rain across north-central communities).

II. Wednesday night-Thursday morning

III. Thursday night-Friday morning (ending as light snow)

When all is said and done, model data is in agreement on significant rainfall totals across central Indiana (2″ to 3″ amounts will be common by Friday).

Thereafter, confidence is high on colder air returning as we close the week and head into next weekend.

Guidance suggests that we still need to remain abreast of the potential of a more widespread wintry event late next weekend and this is something we’ll continue to keep close tabs on as we progress through the upcoming week. As of now, this doesn’t appear to be a major event, but stay tuned.

As we look ahead, we’ll have to continue keeping a close eye on the MJO. Today’s update shows the majority of data swinging things into Phase 8 by mid to late month. Should that come to fruition, prospects of another significant cold spell loom large…

Fun times ahead- no matter how you look at it! 🙂

Enjoy the game!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pre-super-bowl-rambles-stormy-pattern-shifts-to-a-return-of-significant-cold/

Feb 01

6-10 Day Update: Active Times Ahead…

While we’re in the process of pulling out of the bitterly cold air mass, there’s no shortage of action when we look ahead at the upcoming couple of weeks.

Confidence remains high that the upcoming short-term period (Days 2-6) will flip to much warmer than average. A couple days that at least flirt with the 60 degree mark can be expected Sunday and Monday.

While rain will return to the forecast Monday, the milder air sure will be a nice change of pace from the bitterness of the past several days. Enjoy it!

With that said, there are continued indications that the warmth won’t hold.

As we look at the latest medium range ensemble guidance (Days 6-10), the GEFS and EPS are in relatively good agreement.

We note this is a pattern conducive for above normal precipitation during the period. With cold air likely to be “pressing” towards the region, it’s a pattern that has to raise an eyebrow for at least the potential of a wintry threat during this time frame. There should be plenty of low level cold air available late next week and next weekend. With the resistance shown from the SE ridge, potential “fun and games” are on the table during this timeframe as waves of energy likely ride along a slow (at times stalled) frontal boundary.

Keep an eye on the 2/7 through 2/10 window for possible wintry impacts, locally…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/6-10-day-update-active-times-ahead/

Jan 31

Snowy Thursday Night-Early Friday Morning On Tap…

Brief: Accumulating Snow

Forecaster: McMillan


What: Accumulating snow

When: This evening into the predawn hours Friday

Temperatures: 15 to 18 F

Wind: ESE 5-15 MPH

Blowing/ drifting: Minimal

Attention will shift from the dangerous cold to an accumulating snow event across central and north-central Indiana this evening into the predawn hours Friday. We expect snow to begin reaching the surface (may take a little longer than models suggest due to the dry air in place initially) in western portions of the viewing area between 6p-7p and into central Indiana between 8p and 9p. Heaviest snow still looks to fall during the hours of 10p and 3a. Banding may result in periods of moderate to heavy snow during this time frame. Light snow will be ongoing across southeast Indiana around 7a Friday before departing the state shortly thereafter.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 6:30p Thursday

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snowy-thursday-night-early-friday-morning-on-tap/

Jan 24

Launch of IndyWx.com All-Access…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/launch-of-indywx-com-all-access/

Jan 04

Trying to Answer Questions When Winter Will Show Up…

Daily, we’re receiving questions around if and when winter will show up. While admittedly later than originally thought here, we’ve never been in the camp of “throwing the towel” in on winter. Our winter outlook that includes below normal cold and near average snowfall remains unchanged.

Before we get into some of our reasons why we think winter will show up (and likely make up for lost time), the upcoming week will remain much warmer than average.

We’re tracking (3) storm systems that will deal the region rain over the upcoming week:

  1. Southern IN this afternoon and evening
  2. All of the state Monday
  3. All of the state next Friday into Saturday

As a whole, rainfall amounts won’t be particularly impressive for most, with 7-day totals between 0.25″ to 0.75″ for central portions of the state. Heavier amounts can be expected across southern areas.

Now, let’s look ahead to some potentially colder times. Before moving forward, it’s important that we recognize models have attempted once already to drive in a wholesale pattern change to colder (originally thought to be underway now). Perhaps it’s a case of “delayed, but not denied.” There’s a lot going on behind the scenes:

  • Sudden stratospheric warming event and potential polar vortex displacement, etc.
  • SOI flipping from a Niña-like state to one we’d expect to see associated with an El Niño
  • Active MJO remains

There are significant changes brewing in the arctic/ higher latitudes that have to raise an eyebrow at the very least.

Today

Mid-January

Note the higher pressures building over the upcoming 10-14 days in the arctic regions.

Not surprisingly, the models begin to tank the AO.

The PNA rises…

Something that also lends credence to a potential pattern shift is the recent SOI drop.

This would tend to suggest that an active storm track may be in place as the more bonafide cold shift is underway.

The moral of the story? Despite the milder period being extended a couple weeks longer than originally thought, there’s still a lot on the table this winter. It’s far too early to think winter’s over before it’s really even begun for most. We expect to see increasingly wintry conditions show up around the middle of January…

Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/trying-to-answer-questions-when-winter-will-show-up/