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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-here-comes-that-summer-like-feel-timing-out-storm-chances-into-next-week/
May 14
Watching From Afar: Summer-Like Warmth, But Heaviest Rain/ Severe Threat Remains NW Of Immediate Region…
An expanding upper level ridge will drive the warmest air so far this season into the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana, as we get set to close the work week and head into next week.

This will not only deliver mid to upper 80s, but the first truly “oppressive” feel of the season as moist Gulf of Mexico air flows northward into the Ohio Valley. At times, dew points will approach the 70 degree mark.
Though the pattern will turn warm and humid, the worst of the heavy rain events are expected to remain to our west-northwest. (Unfortunately, this pattern is one that will lead to a multi-day severe weather and eventual flood threat for the Plains into the upper Midwest).
That isn’t to say we won’t see rain and storms at times (most numerous Thursday night across northern and east-central Indiana, Sunday afternoon across all of the state, and again Tuesday), but instead the most concentrated heavy rain and severe potential will be focused from OK, MO, IA, and into MN and WI over the upcoming 7-day period. Instead of us looking at widespread 2″ to 4″ totals, we’re instead looking at 7-day rainfall amounts around an inch, with locally heavier amounts.

From a severe perspective, similar to the heavy rain events, this, too, is expected to remain to our west for the better part of the upcoming 7-day period. While storm chasers coverage on the Plains this weekend into next week, we’ll, thankfully, be watching the bulk of the action from afar for the better part of the period.
Days 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook, courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), can be found below:





Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/watching-from-afar-summer-like-warmth-but-heaviest-rain-severe-threat-remains-nw-of-immediate-region/
May 14
VIDEO: Summer-Like Feel Develops; Talking Storm Chances In The Days Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-summer-like-feel-develops-talking-storm-chances-in-the-days-ahead/
May 13
“Transition” Is The Name Of The Game…
As we look ahead to late-May and early June, “transition” is the word that comes to mind when describing the overall weather pattern.
We’re going to begin pulling out of this unseasonably chilly pattern late-week and we’ll replace it with a true summer-like regime. Note the differences at 500mb between now and this weekend:


Not only will the 80s return, but oppressive dew points can be expected as well by Friday (65-70 degrees). The sweat factor will be back in full effect!

With that said, there’s reason for concern that the flip to summer may not last.
Not only do we continue to see high-latitude blocking in place, but the MJO is showing signs of rotating into Phase 1 as we inch closer to early-June. That Phase 1 this time of year is a cool one for the eastern portion of the country. Note the tendency for eastern troughiness illustrated in Image 2 below.


Perhaps ensemble data is seeing this cooler transition in the pattern on today’s 12z run:

Bottom line, confidence is high on a summer-like flip as we welcome in the weekend, continuing into early parts of Week 2, but we don’t think it’s a “stick and hold” variety of warmth. There’s growing reason to believe a flip back to cooler conditions looms before we close out the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/transition-is-the-name-of-the-game/
May 13
VIDEO: Pattern Transition Takes Place Late Week; Early Thoughts On The Indy 500 & Memorial Day Weekend…
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