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Category: Christmas/ Thanksgiving
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/changes-are-brewing-friends/
Dec 07
Patience Required…
Ironically, the only area of normal to below normal air (with the exception of the Rockies and southern Plains) is located over our region, month-to-date.
From a winter lover’s perspective, this December has been one to forget this far, and it’ll only grow more frustrating in the days ahead (we still forecast mid to upper 60s over the weekend).
The basic drivers of our pattern remain generally unchanged from ideas in October when we posted our Winter Outlook. Our complete Winter Outlook can be found here. We feel the need to remind some that we thought we would get off to warmer than normal and relatively quiet start:
- “We feel this model best represents the likely milder than average start to winter before colder conditions mid and late winter.”
- “We think the winter opens warmer than normal and relatively dry before shifting towards a colder than average pattern for mid and late winter.”
- “The word “volatile” comes to mind at times.”
In short, there’s nothing out there that would suggest any reasons we should deviate from our current winter outlook that’s out there. Despite the warm start, we still feel the winter, when all totaled up, will end up slightly colder than normal. Additionally, though still falling short of normal snowfall, we also feel there will be plenty of winter weather potential come mid and late winter.
That leads us to the shorter term and what happens after the near record warmth of the upcoming weekend.
To sum it up:
- A very active pattern develops this weekend with storms to track every 3-4 days.
- Despite a storm or two that may have a favorable storm track for winter potential, it’s important to note sufficient cold air is tough to come by in the more immediate term.
- Last week’s crashing SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) will lead to poor run-to-run consistency.
- We do see a way the pattern could get cold enough for more interesting times the closer we get to Christmas. Does this mean we’re guaranteeing a snow storm? No, but, as mentioned this morning, the teleconnections will at least make an attempt to transition closer towards a state that could offer up wintry mischief at some point during the last (10) days of the month.
Bottom line is that the overall pattern is one that favors more in the way of warmer than average conditions through the next couple weeks before we begin transitioning towards more sustained wintry conditions mid and late winter. The idea here is that with each successive storm that comes through, it’ll cut into the mean ridge position and the heights will continue to lift further and further north with time over the upcoming 10-14 days. The GFS ensembles show this.
Is it an ideal set up for “lock and load” winter? Not at all. Is it an improvement that can at least offer up a couple attempts of wintry potential around Christmas? Yes.
As stated above, in the longer term, based off current data and seasonal modeling, there’s no reason to walk away from the idea the slow start to winter continues for the duration. Patience friends. 🙂
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Dec 05
Warm Late Next Week; Active Times Loom For The 2nd Half Of December…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-late-next-week-active-times-loom-for-the-2nd-half-of-december/
Dec 03
Constructed Analog Model Holds Steady…
The updated constructed analog model is in the house and holds steady with the on-going idea from previous months.
Upper air pattern for Jan., Feb., and March
Temperature anomalies for Jan., Feb., and March
Precipitation anomalies for Jan., Feb., and March
Based on this update, we really don’t see anything that would suggest we need to change our ongoing thinking this winter.
While the mainstream national media seems to continue to push the warmth this winter, we just don’t see it that way. It doesn’t mean that we’re guaranteed to be correct, but at least we’ve outlined our reasoning behind why we disagree with that idea in countless previous posts (that can be found in the archives).
As it stands now, we are really becoming bullish on the possibility we turn much more active for mid and late month. This will come after a relatively quiet and mild first two weeks of December. The SOI has been tanking for several days, but has gone into an all-out tail spin today.
A couple things that come to mind right off the bat with that kind of daily negative value? Poor model performance in the mid range, and an active pattern 10-14 days out. Let’s see how things unfold.
Additionally, latest model data suggests our teleconnections may begin to align in a better fashion for central and eastern cold. Latest runs take the AO slightly negative, the NAO neutral, and trend the PNA back positive towards late month. Not perfect, but we’ll take it.
I heard one prominent national weather source today say December looks warm, quiet, and feature reduced chances of a White Christmas for most compared to normal. Perhaps that will, indeed, be the case. We’re, however, in the camp (small as it may be :-)) that believes a colder and more active period looms leading up to Christmas. We shall see what we shall see…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/constructed-analog-model-holds-steady/
Dec 02
Hang In There You Lovers Of Winter…
As I sit here in the good ole weather office, snow is falling and the Christmas lights are shining at the McMillan household. Just doesn’t get any better! Unfortunately, for winter lovers out there, the overall weather pattern over the upcoming couple weeks won’t offer up much in the way of wintry precipitation, as strong ridging results in a rather prolonged period of uneventful and mild weather across these parts (at least compared to normals).
The GFS ensembles show ridging expanding over our region this weekend into early next week. Source: Weatherbell.com
That said, there are indications that our weather pattern may be changing enough to at least put us on the playing field for wintry potential as we rumble into the back half of the month, including the all-important Christmas period.
The SOI continues to tank and while the impacts (storminess) of a tanking SOI are delayed, we’re in the time frame now where this may result in busy times, or an active storm track, come mid and late December.
Right on schedule, we see the GFS ensembles going towards a much different look around mid month. Note the heights (ridging) pulling further and further north while the southern stream energizes. This is likely a byproduct of that tanking SOI that we see now.
GFS ensembles. It’s a “night and day” difference out at mid month. Source: Weatherbell.com
We also note the AO, or Arctic Oscillation, trending more in a negative to neutral direction. While still not significantly negative, this is an improvement from a winter lover’s perspective from the positive values we’ve seen of late.
We’re only two days into meteorological winter and still feel very confident about our winter outlook, focusing on the back half of winter for the worst conditions, relative to averages. That said, even though the first couple of weeks of December, as a whole, may not be as cold or snowy as you’d like, it doesn’t mean we can’t reverse things enough to put us in a position to make for more “interesting” times around these parts leading up to Christmas….
Could this be the scene this Christmas across central IN? Much more later!
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