Category: Christmas/ Thanksgiving

Nov 20

Dinnertime Rambles: Talking Thanksgiving Weekend And December…

Updated 11.20.23 @ 5:30p

I. The weather pattern will turn progressively colder as we move through the Thanksgiving holiday. This isn’t anything earth-shattering by any stretch, but temperatures running 4° to 8° below normal is pretty stout. There’s also still the potential of an early season arctic “jab” prior to us getting out of the first 3-5 days of December, but that likely comes after this weekend- if at all.

As a whole, it’s a dry pattern that will accompany the chill, but we will want to continue keeping an eye on energy that will eject off the Rockies over the weekend. At times models can underplay these features only to have to correct stronger as we grow closer to the potential event. Will that be the case this time? Impossible to say from this distance- just something we’ll continue to monitor with such a busy travel period. As it is today, modeling wants to “string” the energy out which would essentially be a light or non-event.

II. While the pattern drivers all are aligned for a cold open (first few days) of December, there’s reason to believe a period of milder than normal air will take foot just after- say sometime between 12/5 and 12/8, or so. That said, we’re in a bit of a fork in the road so to speak.

The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is going to pop positive at least for a period of time prior to mid-December. This strongly argues for a relaxation of the cold regime that we’ll endure to open the month. Guidance differs on the handling of the MJO, however. Should the American guidance be correct in taking things into Phase 4, when combined with what we see transpiring with the EPO, then we’re off to the races for at least a 7-10 day period of much warmer than normal temperatures. That said, European guidance collapses the MJO into the “null” phase and even hints at things emerging again in the colder phases come mid December. While we still have time to sort through this “mess,” the idea here is that the cold open to the month will moderate to slightly to moderately above normal for a 7-10 day period leading us into mid-month. Thereafter, I’m becoming increasingly bullish for a renewed cold pattern developing towards the Christmas and New Years holidays…

It’ll be important to closely monitor the MJO as we head into early-mid December as this will have big impacts on our overall weather pattern.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dinnertime-rambles-talking-thanksgiving-weekend-and-early-december/

Nov 12

Sunday Morning Rambles: Thanksgiving Week Continues To Trend Active…

Updated 11.12.23 @ 11:13a

As quiet as this week will be, overall, it continues to look like Thanksgiving week won’t provide the same fortune. As mentioned yesterday, there’s no reason to waste time describing the day to day “rinse and repeat” regime up until Thursday. That’s when a frontal boundary will sweep through the Ohio Valley with gusty winds (30-40 MPH) and an opportunity of showers Thursday night into Friday. Moisture return continues to look unimpressive. Best chances of measurable rain (0.10” – 0.25”) will come from Indianapolis and points east during this timeframe.

The next couple weeks will run milder to much milder than normal.

Week 1

Week 2

The quiet week we will enjoy this week will be replaced with a much more active time of things in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. Look for a potentially potent and large scale storm system impacting our weather with rain and gusty winds early to mid next week. Note the significant change between Week 1 and Week 2 precipitation below. More details to come as we go through this week.

Week 1 precipitation anomalies


Week 2 precipitation anomalies

We watch the EPO trends closely for the threat of potentially colder changes longer term.

Until the PNA and MJO follow suit, “tread with caution” on any wholesale big colder shifts. All in all, this predominant regime should hold firm into the 1st half of December.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-rambles-thanksgiving-week-continues-to-trend-active/

Nov 10

An Incredibly Quiet Week Ahead Of A Potentially Busy Thanksgiving Week…

Updated 11.10.23 @ 6:54a

Simply put, for this time of year, the upcoming 5-7 days is as quiet as it can be around these parts. Look for much more sunshine than we typically see this time of year along with moderating temperatures after a seasonably chilly weekend. Highs will return into the lower 60s for a good chunk of the work week ahead. All in all it’ll be a perfect week to get a jump on that exterior Christmas decorating or any end of year yard work. Enjoy!

An area of high pressure will keep our region quiet in the week ahead while the “action” shifts to the south and east.

As we look ahead to Thanksgiving week, there are growing indications of a much more active pattern that will emerge. While still too early for specifics, there are likely to be some weather-related impacts to holiday travel (both going and coming home) from a couple of stronger storm systems.

One more quick note before closing, the NEW European Weeklies are in and present an “intriguing” signal as we get closer to Christmas. Note the model see the early December ridge get washed away and a trough beginning to emerge south-central. I’d watch for the model to grow stronger and more expansive (colder impacts) in time. . .

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/an-incredibly-quiet-week-ahead-of-a-potentially-busy-thanksgiving-week/

Nov 03

VIDEO: The Roller Coaster Ride Of Autumn; Checking In On The New European Weeklies…

Updated 11.03.23 @ 6:34a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-the-roller-coaster-ride-of-autumn-checking-in-on-the-new-european-weeklies/

Oct 07

Trend Hasn’t Been Our Friend As Of Late Around The Holidays; Reason To Believe This Year Is Different?

Updated 10.07.23 @ 6:09a

Though officially, we’re only a couple weeks into autumn, attention here has begun to shift towards the potential predominant pattern as we push into the holiday season.

A quick, simple look back over the most recent November and December patterns is a sight that generates anxiety for most winter lovers. At a time when the majority of even non-winter lovers would like snow (i.e. the holidays), well above normal temperatures, and almost record warmth has become all too common over the years.

November 2015-2022

December 2015-2022

Is there reason to believe that could be different this year, especially with our base transition to El Nino? Simply put, not so fast my friend. El Nino winters are notorious for getting off to slower, warm starts. Our research shows that many times November can start cold but that the December pattern flips warmer around these parts. That’s, obviously, not to say it “has” to be that way. Many other factors contribute to the overall regime, but just that when you simply bundle all 1st year Nino events together, it’s more typical than not to find things play out such as illustrated above.

Let’s take a more specific look at our analog package (’82-’83, ’91-’92, ’02-’03, ’09-’10, and ’15-’16) and see what that suggests may be in store as we begin to set our eyes on the holidays.

November: Slightly above normal, locally. Unseasonably cold west and unseasonably warm New England are the headliners.

December: Greatest warm anomalies are centered over the Ohio Valley, in what otherwise is a large-scale warmer than normal regime from the Plains east.

January: The pattern begins to really flip around with cold bleeding southeast as the northern Plains and Northwest turn warmer than normal.

What does this all mean to me? While there’s only one that knows the future, if I was a betting man, I’d lean towards another holiday season that features above normal temperatures and most likely a greater than normal chance of below average December snowfall. I’d anticipate a few cold shots in November and the possibility of one or 2 accumulating snow events that gives way to the overall warmer idea in December. There’s always the chance the pattern begins to shift that last week of December for the colder January look… That’s the hope we’ll leave you with in this post in what otherwise will likely be a warmer than normal month as a whole.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/trend-hasnt-been-our-friend-as-of-late-around-the-holidays-reason-to-believe-this-year-is-different/