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Category: Autumn
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/10/video-a-cold-weekend-is-on-tap-looking-ahead-to-thanksgiving-week/
Nov 09
“Block Ready To Rock?” Cold Pattern Developing Around Thanksgiving…
Model data continues to suggest a Greenland block will develop as we progress into late-November. This kind of pattern creates a “log jam” of sorts in the weather pattern and is the type pattern notorious for unseasonably cold regimes across our region. The overall agreement between various models raises our confidence in this pattern unfolding as Thanksgiving nears.
Such a pattern illustrated above, per the European ensemble (image 1) and the GFS ensemble (image 2), would help drill a tongue of unseasonably cold air through the northern Plains, into the Mid West, and across the East.
A look at the 00z teleconnections this morning shows 3/4 “big boy” drivers going to that cold look for late-November, as well:
We’ve been discussing early snow cover across Canada and the northern tier for weeks and how models would have to “correct” colder as they realize the air masses traveling over the snowpack won’t be able to modify as they normally would without that snowpack. The differences between this November and last are startling and show how the early snowpack is beginning to “feedback” on itself leading to early-season cold air.
2016 snowpack and temperatures anomalies through the first week of November:
2017 snowpack and temperatures anomalies through the first week of November:
Given the overall look to the pattern downstream, I anticipate the cold will continue to “press” and eventually overwhelm the pattern east as we progress through the second half of the month.
To close, we expect a developing Greenland Block to help drive an unseasonably cold late-November, including the Thanksgiving holiday. This is the type pattern that can also help generate early season wintry “fun and games,” however it’s far too early to be specific with any sorts of potential wintry events that may eventually come in this pattern. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/09/block-ready-to-rock-cold-pattern-developing-around-thanksgiving/
Nov 08
Sunshine Returns; Coldest Air Of The Season Awaits…
Highlights:
- Sunshine returns
- Coldest air of the season blows into town
- Wet and cold close to the weekend
Coldest Air Of The Fall On Deck…High pressure is building in and will dominate our midweek weather, including sunshine and unseasonably cool temperatures. We’ll add a gusty breeze into the mix Thursday afternoon as an early season arctic front approaches. Once that front passes by Thursday night, a much colder air mass will plunge into the region. If your travels take you north Friday, snowbelt regions can expect snow showers and embedded squalls as the early season arctic air helps ignite the lake effect machine. Our first average high of 37° is on December 20th, so we’ll be running well ahead of schedule Friday. Bundle up!
After a bright and sunny start Saturday, clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon and thicken up overnight as our next storm system approaches. That storm system will deliver light rain Sunday. Sunshine returns to kick off the new work week along with slightly below normal temperatures.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/08/sunshine-returns-coldest-air-of-the-season-awaits/
Nov 06
Unseasonably Chilly Pattern…
Highlights:
- Sunshine works in today
- Weak weather maker Tuesday
- Chilly pattern turns downright cold to close the week
Have The Jackets And Coats Handy…After a rough Sunday filled with flooding and severe weather, we’re opening the work week on a much quieter, albeit much colder, note! An overcast start to the day should gradually give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. We’ve already experienced our high for the day (at midnight) and temperatures for most will remain in the 40s today, coupled with a brisk north breeze.
Our next weather maker will pass to our south Tuesday and this could spread a light shower as far north as central Indiana early Tuesday morning. Better rain chances will remain across southern portions of the state, but even here rainfall amounts will remain light.
Dry, unseasonably chilly conditions will prevail for midweek before a stronger blast of chill pushes in to close the week. This air mass will be of arctic origin and deliver the coldest temperatures so far this autumn. A hard freeze is expected Friday and Saturday mornings. Moisture will return over the weekend with light rain possible Saturday night into Sunday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.30″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/06/unseasonably-chilly-pattern/
Nov 05
VIDEO: Severe Weather Sunday; Wintry Push In The Week Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/05/video-severe-weather-sunday-wintry-push-in-the-week-ahead/
Nov 04
Severe Weather Sunday; Much Colder Next Week…
Highlights:
- Clouds more bark than bite today
- Stormy setup Sunday
- Trending colder next week
All Eyes On Sunday…The cold front that passed through the region Thursday night and setup the gorgeous close to the work week is lifting back north this morning as a warm front. This will result in overcast conditions today, areas of sprinkles or drizzle later in the day, and rising nighttime temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across central Indiana late tonight with a warmer and increasingly moist environment.
Sunday will certainly be a day to remain weather-aware. The overall setup hasn’t changed from what was discussed yesterday with a warm and moist southwesterly air flow in place ahead of an approaching cold front and associated area of low pressure. Additional ingredients in play suggest we need to monitor the threat of large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially tornadoes. Individual storms (potential super cells) are expected to fire across central and northern portions of the state Sunday afternoon into early evening. These will be capable of quickly pulsing to severe levels and include potential of large hail, as well as tornadoes (particularly in the vicinity of the warm front which is expected to be draped across north-central parts of the state). Individual cells are anticipated to “morph” into a squall line Sunday evening, including potential of a quick spin-up tornado, as well as damaging straight line winds. With a moisture-rich air mass in place (precipitable water values are expected to approach 2″ Sunday evening), locally heavy rainfall is also expected.
All of our “excitement” will come to an end overnight Sunday and we’ll trend much colder (and calmer) during the new work week ahead. Our next storm system will pass by to our south Tuesday, but may be close enough to spark a light shower across central portions of the state. Drier and colder conditions build in later in the week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/04/severe-weather-sunday-much-colder-next-week/
Nov 02
Not Much Sunshine In This Forecast…
Highlights:
- Milder times
- Unsettled heading into the weekend
- Colder next week and remaining unsettled
Vitamin D Needed…While we’re going through a milder stretch of weather between now and the end of the weekend, it’ll come with considerable cloudiness and periods of rain at times.
Most of today will only feature light passing showers and mist, but a clap or two of thunder can be expected tonight as a cold front passes through the state. The air mass behind the front won’t be particularly cold and a seasonable day is on tap to wrap up our work week Friday.
A warmer southwesterly air flow will return this weekend and this will help boost temperatures to levels as much as 15° above average Sunday. Scattered showers can be expected Saturday into Sunday and we’re monitoring the potential of a stronger storm Sunday afternoon and evening. You’ll want to stay tuned for future updates on Sunday’s storm threat.
As we rumble into a new work week, the active and wet pattern will continue and we’ll add a colder feel to the equation, as well. Monday through Wednesday will feature a “step down” regime: seasonable conditions Monday before turning colder than normal Tuesday and Wednesday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/02/not-much-sunshine-in-this-forecast/
Oct 31
VIDEO: Wet Snow For Some Early Wednesday…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/31/video-wet-snow-for-some-early-wednesday/
Oct 31
A Cold Halloween On Tap…
Highlights:
- Cold and blustery Halloween
- Unsettled, milder weather builds in
- Stronger cold front arrives early next week
Spooky Winds…Northerly breezes are strong and gusty and leading to wind chills in the lower-middle 20s across central Indiana this morning. Heavier winter coats will be a smart choice out the door! Otherwise, we’re a state divided from a cloud perspective: the southern half of Indiana will get in on the sunny act much sooner than the northern half of the state. As we look towards the all-important trick-or-treat weather tonight, anticipate dry conditions, lighter winds, and unseasonably chilly conditions continuing.
Our next storm system will approach Wednesday with showers. Rain may be mixed with wet snow or sleet Wednesday morning, but with temperatures above freezing, don’t look for any accumulation. Periods of showers and light rain will continue Thursday into Friday morning. Heavy rain won’t occur, but it’ll be damp at times. Saturday is a bit tricky- some solutions keep rain around, but we’re choosing the more “optimistic” approach for the purpose of this forecast update. Stay tuned.
Saturday will feature considerable cloudiness, slightly cooler air, and breezy conditions before a warmer close to the weekend. A southwesterly flow will help boost highs into the upper 60s Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. That cold front will slide through here with showers and a couple claps of thunder Monday. Much colder air returns Monday night into Tuesday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Trace
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/31/a-cold-halloween-on-tap/
Oct 30
Cold Turn After A Warm Month; Unsettled Week Ahead…
The past (7) days has featured a cold turn through the central in the face of a warm October up to this point.
The upcoming few days will feature additional unseasonably chilly conditions before moderating through the second half of the week.
This will feature a hard freeze for central Indiana tonight. We dipped to the first 32° temperature of the season here at IndyWx.com HQ this morning and will likely beat that Halloween morning. Widespread upper 20s to around 30° can be expected.
This cold air is thanks to a cold front and reinforcing chill that will feature a band of showers that scoots through the state late morning into the early afternoon.
Rainfall amounts won’t be significant and feature totals between 0.10″ to 0.20″ through most of central Indiana.
Unsettled weather will return late week and through the upcoming weekend, but temperatures will moderate and return to levels that are above average. There are indications cold will push again in the 8-10 day period, but a warmer pattern will engulf our region during the medium range period and feature temperatures that will reach the 60s by Thursday and Friday.
The warmer conditions will also come with rain. A “wavy” cold front will approach late week with showers before returning north as a warm front late in the weekend. Finally, this frontal boundary will push southeast early next week with cold air returning. With the movement and stubborn nature of the front, expect a prolonged duration of unsettled conditions. It won’t rain the entire time, but we’ll keep showers in our forecast beginning Wednesday into the weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/30/cold-turn-after-a-warm-month-unsettled-week-ahead/