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Category: Autumn
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/16/video-predominantly-colder-than-average-pattern-takes-hold-timing-out-storm-systems-through-the-2nd-half-of-october/
Oct 15
Evening Video: A Tale Of Extended Summer That Gives Way To Sudden Winter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/15/evening-video-a-tale-of-extended-summer-that-gives-way-to-sudden-winter/
Oct 15
VIDEO: Rain Develops By Evening; Potential Of Pre-Halloween Snow?
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/15/video-rain-develops-by-evening-potential-of-pre-halloween-snow/
Oct 14
Taste Of Winter Before Month’s End?
A cold front will whip through central Indiana Tuesday evening. Showers will accompany the frontal passage, but we still don’t anticipate much in the way of significant moisture across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall totals in excess of 0.50″ will likely fall across drought-stricken areas downstate.
Colder and blustery conditions will be with us Wednesday and Thursday, including wind chills in the upper 20s at times Wednesday morning.
A moderating trend will get underway this weekend as a gusty southwesterly breeze takes hold on the backside of retreating high pressure. This will lead to a couple of days of above normal warmth early next week (not quite done with the 70s just yet).
We’ll continue to monitor for a wet and stormy time of things Monday PM into Tuesday. The severe threat is to be determined and will require fine tuning as we push ahead over the next several days.
Once this area of low pressure and associated cold front blow through, colder air will arrive on gusty northwest winds by the middle to latter portions of next week.
This will set the tone for a rather significant colder shift as we get set to put a bow on the month of October. A secondary and more significant trough will descend into the region just after Day 10. With a developing negative EPO, positive PNA, and MJO heading for Phase 2, it’s time to start “beating the cold drum” a bit harder. In fact, latest 500mb charts would indicate there’s the potential of at least a little wintry mischief present to go along with the colder shift.
This should at least kick up the lake effect snow guns for the first time this season, and we’ll have to monitor things for the possibility of “backside” energy digging south at the base of the trough that would present the possibility of a little early season snow across parts of the Ohio Valley region as Halloween week nears…
Times, they are, indeed, ‘a changing…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/14/taste-of-winter-before-months-end/
Oct 14
VIDEO: Frosty Midweek; Colder And Active Stretch Of Weather For Late October?
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/14/video-frosty-midweek-colder-and-active-stretch-of-weather-for-late-october/
Oct 12
VIDEO: Timing Out Storm Systems In The Upcoming Week; Colder Late Month Trends…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/12/video-timing-out-storm-systems-in-the-upcoming-week-colder-late-month-trends/
Oct 11
First Strong Cold Front Of The Season…
Our Friday is starting off with heavy rain and embedded thunder across western portions of the state.
It’ll still be a while before central Indiana gets in on the more concentrated, widespread rain. We think this arrives later this afternoon into the early evening hours. Most can expect to pick up between 0.20” and 0.40” across central parts of the state, but there will be a few locally heavier totals.
Before the rain arrives, a strong southerly wind ahead of the front will send temperatures to around 70°. Meanwhile, note temperatures at the same time already into the 40s across eastern IL.
The temperature crash will continue through the evening hours advancing east. By 7p, temperatures in and around Indianapolis and points west will be in the 40s. A gusty wind will result in “feels like” temperatures into the 30s.
The first freeze of the season is expected Saturday morning for many across central Indiana into western and northern portions of the state. We anticipate wind chill values to fall into the middle 20s.
Another reinforcing shot of chilly air is dialed up next week. More on this and other items a bit later…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/11/first-strong-cold-front-of-the-season/
Oct 10
VIDEO: Friday Will Feature Major Weather Changes Across The Region…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/10/video-friday-will-feature-major-weather-changes-across-the-region/
Oct 10
Cool 6-10 Day Period Ahead, But Then What?
A strong cold front will sweep through the area tomorrow and help usher in the coolest air so far this autumn. This will set the tone, combined with the recurving WPAC typhoon, for a chilly upcoming 6-10 day period, but what lies beyond this period later in the month?
We turn to a couple of our more trusted teleconnections for advice.
Note the PNA “bobbing” up and down through the medium range period, with more of a negative look around the 20th. This argues for a milder stretch of weather around that time. (Further out, we’ll keep close eyes on the PNA to see if a more consistent positive signal develops as we inch closer to November).
The EPO pops strongly positive mid month which, too, argues for milder times, locally. That said, similar to the PNA above, the EPO is trending towards a scenario that would present colder times as we rumble towards November. We’ll monitor for consistency.
To no surprise, given the two primary teleconnection drivers above (remember these can change as the seasons evolve), we see the pattern set to turn milder just beyond Day 10. Note the strong agreement between the European, Canadian, and GFS ensemble data below.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/10/cool-6-10-day-period-ahead-but-then-what/
Oct 09
VIDEO: Pleasant Weather Continues Through Thursday; Sharp Cold Front Delivers Colder Changes For The Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/09/video-pleasant-weather-continues-through-thursday-sharp-cold-front-delivers-colder-changes-for-the-weekend/