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Category: Autumn
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/12/video-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year-pattern-turns-busier-to-close-october/
Oct 10
Saturday Morning Rambles: Time To Pull Out The Heavier Cold Weather Gear…
Delta– the remnants of one time powerful Hurricane Delta will curl northeast into the TN Valley today and cross the southern Appalachians Sunday. Central Indiana will miss out on any…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/10/saturday-morning-rambles-time-to-pull-out-the-heavier-cold-weather-gear/
Oct 08
Long Range Update: 2nd Half Of October And Open To November…
As the fall season “matures” the same MJO phase last month can lead to a much different weather pattern this month (November and so on). Note how the latest European monthly MJO model takes things through 5, 6, 7, and 8 by early November.
With greater amplitude, I’d say this would take the driver seat behind the pattern evolution into early November, but that’s not the case. Instead, we’ll want to continue to closely monitor the happenings with the EPO and PNA.
Both are pegged to move into favorable phases to bring the chill back into the East as we move through late October.
We think next week will feature a “step-down” process to a much chillier following week (Oct. 17th-23rd).
The new JMA Weeklies into the office this morning show a similar pattern evolution:
If anything, I’d expect this model to cool further over time in that Weeks 3-4 period. It’s also interesting to see the high latitude blocking shown to remain intact (that can really begin to have more of an impact downstream once to November).
Unfortunately, it’s a continued dry pattern. We’ll have more frequent frontal passages as we move through the back half of the month, but these will likely be moisture starved for the most part. It still doesn’t look like a wholesale wetter pattern will kick in until later in November.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/08/long-range-update-2nd-half-of-october-and-open-to-november/
Oct 07
VIDEO: Tracking Delta; Pattern Turns Chilly Again Down The Road…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/07/video-tracking-delta-pattern-turns-chilly-again-down-the-road/
Oct 05
Soon-To-Be “Delta” Makes For A Busy Week Along The Gulf Coast; 3-Week Outlook For Central IN…
Before we talk tropics, frost is widespread this morning across the state. We note some are even at the freezing mark as we start the new work week.
This is right around average, or just a few days early, for our first 32° freeze of the year across central Indiana.
Expect bright sunshine and another classic fall sky this afternoon which will help warm us to around 60°.
The week ahead will feature quiet conditions across the region. We’ll watch a couple of cold fronts scoot by to our northeast and, of course, soon-to-be Delta in the Gulf of Mexico. Delta will likely strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the north-central Gulf Coast late week. There are ingredients in place that may result in rapid intensification later this week and the potential of Delta strengthening into a major hurricane is on the table, IMHO. Thankfully, the combination of increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures right along the coast (thanks to the early fall fronts that have made it unusually far south) should help lead to weakening prior to landfall. The problem with that, however, is if the system is coming in as a major, storm surge will still be quite significant.
If you have plans to travel to the northern Gulf Coast, please pay particularly close attention to the develops over the coming hours and days. As of this morning, it appears as if we’ll be looking at a Friday landfall.
Back here on the home front, quiet conditions are expected this week- and for the most part over the next few weeks. Perhaps the next item of excitement will be a cold front pegged to move through the region in the 8-10 day period. We’ll need to keep close eyes on the EPO/ PNA trends in the Week 2 period for the possibility of a sharp jab of colder air behind that cold front. This would come after a nice surge of warmth (Indian Summer) compared to normal. Additionally, looking even further ahead, longer range guidance is beginning to get excited around the potential of unseasonably cold (wintry like) air to open November.
Week 1
Week 2
As expected, the pattern should continue to run quite dry through the better part of the period:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/05/soon-to-be-delta-makes-for-a-busy-week-along-the-gulf-coast-3-week-outlook-for-central-in/
Oct 04
VIDEO: Frosty Start Monday Gives Way To Moderating Temperatures This Week; Keeping Close Eyes On The Gulf…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/04/video-frosty-start-monday-gives-way-to-moderating-temperatures-this-week-keeping-close-eyes-on-the-gulf/
Oct 03
VIDEO: Looking Ahead Over The Next Couple Weeks…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/03/video-looking-ahead-over-the-next-couple-weeks/
Oct 02
VIDEO: Frosty Start Ahead Saturday For Some; Looking Ahead To Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/02/video-frosty-start-ahead-saturday-for-some-looking-ahead-to-next-week/
Oct 01
October 2020 Outlook…
Average temperatures for the month of October fall from 71° and 50° on the 1st to 60° and 41° by Halloween. Indianapolis averages 3.12″ of rain this month and 0.40″ of snow.
We expect the MJO to remain in Phase 5 for the better part of the first half of the month. This, in conjunction with the positive PNA and negative EPO, will help drive the early cool pattern into the East. Note how that begins to change next week (the PNA goes negative and the EPO goes positive). This will likely erode a lot of the cool air and slowly, but surely allow warmer temperatures to penetrate east into the Ohio Valley beyond the 10th (give or take a day).
Note how the upper pattern follows suit:
The end result should be an unusually chilly start to the month that moderates towards mid and late month. Based on the MJO movement, there’s the potential of chill making a comeback just before Halloween (and into November), but this is a lower confidence call at this point. We’ll keep an eye on that as we move through the next few weeks. From a precipitation perspective, another very dry month is ahead. We’ll end up wetter than September, but still several weeks away from truly changing the precipitation pattern up from a holistic standpoint.
Here’s our official October Outlook. For central Indiana in particular, we expect an average to slightly above average temperature month (less than 1° above average) with well below normal rainfall.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/10/01/october-2020-outlook/
Sep 30
VIDEO: Today’s Gusty Winds Offer Up Chilly Reinforcements Heading Into The Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/30/video-todays-gusty-winds-offer-up-chilly-reinforcements-heading-into-the-weekend/