Summer Like Now, But Cooler Times Loom…

Highlights:

Storm potential north
Hot Labor Day weekend
Cold front delivers storms and cooler air next week

We’re off to another steamy one this morning with many neighborhoods already between 65-70 as we type this predawn Friday. We’ll zoom up yet again to around 90 this afternoon with only isolated storm coverage. Better chances of rain and storms can be expected across northeastern portions of the state due to a little “weakness” in the atmosphere.

The story for the long holiday weekend is one of heat and humidity, with little, if any, storm threat (very isolated coverage). Highs Saturday though Monday should reach around 90.

However, changes are coming down the road as a significant cold front sweeps the region Wednesday into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage followed by a MUCH cooler, fall-like, air mass arriving by the end of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1″

Bill McMillan September 4, 2015 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Labor Day Weekend, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Cooler Times Ahead By Mid Month?

Summer sure doesn’t appear to be letting go anytime soon as our recent 7-day outlook suggests, but there are indications that our unseasonably hot and humid regime may take a back seat to the refreshing taste of fall in about 10 days. The big “tip of the cap” towards the cooler pattern? The PNA, or Pacific North American pattern, shifting from negative to positive. As shown below, both the European (top) and GFS (bottom) highlight the PNA shift to positive.

A positive PNA favors eastern troughiness and an associated cooler than normal regime over our neck of the woods.

Sure enough, models are trending towards a much cooler direction for week 2.

It’ll be fun to watch things unfold. For now, if you’re a fan of summer weather, be sure to enjoy the next week, or so, as things appear to be changing for the much cooler side of things around the 10th (give or take a day or two).

Bill McMillan September 2, 2015 No Comments Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, PNA, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Tuesday Weather Notebook…

Tuesday Storms: A small, but vigorous upper level disturbance is overhead this morning and will serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development. The disturbance shows up very nicely…

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Bill McMillan September 1, 2015 No Comments Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Early Fall-Like Now, But Heat Builds…

Highlights:

Taste of early fall continues (for now)
Moisture slowly returns this weekend
Heat builds this weekend and grows hotter next week

After a couple days of variably cloudy skies, we should see more in the way of sunshine as we get set to wrap up the work week. Conditions will remain unseasonably pleasant to be outdoors.

We’ll begin to transition to warmer and more humid times this weekend and with a disturbance nearby, an isolated to widely scattered shower or thunderstorm has to be included in our forecast. Most should remain rain-free, however.

Overall dry and increasingly hot conditions will be the rule next week as ridging develops over the Great Lakes region. Folks longing for more summer before fall truly sets in look to have their wish granted over the upcoming couple weeks ahead.

In the tropics, all eyes remain on Erika. Though many questions remain, folks from the east coast of Florida up along the Southeast coast should remain abreast of the latest developments. It’s likely Erika will go through a strengthening process over the next couple days.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Bill McMillan August 26, 2015 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Wednesday Weather Notebook….

Refreshing: We’re off to another pleasantly cool start this morning. Also note the cooler air has been able to ooze into the southeast. Speaking of cool, it’s been a…