Category: Autumn

Updated 11.13.23 @ 1:50p

Good afternoon, Clients! As additional seasonal guidance updates, we wanted to take a moment to review the latest trends with you as that data becomes available. Today, the latest JMA monthly product updated and “doubles down” on the idea of an overall mild, but active December morphing into a colder, stormy eastern US regime come January and February. Overall, the model is very consistent from October’s update.

December

Highlights

I. A milder than normal open to meteorological winter, but quite an active pattern on a widespread level- centered Central and Southern tier.

II. Lets keep an eye on the potential of a colder pattern to evolve the last 10 days, or so, of December.

January

Highlights

I. Ridge pulls back into the “sweet spot” and subsequent trough develops across the East. (Would watch for potential of cold to grow more widespread in the next update should this 500mb be accurate, and we think it is).

II. Active Nino southern stream delivers a hectic and busy pattern across the southern tier and up the eastern seaboard. Ripe pattern for eastern winter storm threat(s).

February

Highlights

I. Persistent pattern from January. If anything, ‘mean’ trough/ ridge positions only become that much more prominent. Cold becomes more widespread across the East, compared to January. Again, should the upper air pattern be correct, I’d lean that the model will have to grow colder in time for this period.

II. Very stormy southern and eastern seaboard. Likely multiple attempts at wintry “fun and games,” including deep into the south with this pattern.