1.) We’re running 15°-20° colder this morning than this time yesterday. Wind chills in the upper 20s-lower 30s are being felt as winds remain gusty this morning. 2.)…
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After the wet, windy, and chilly spell of weather this week, we have contradicting signals in model world for what lies ahead as we flip the page into November. With so much “noise,” we don’t think it’s wise buying whole-heartedly into any paticular idea for November just yet.
Here’s the plot line…
The PNA trends negative in the mid range and would argue for eastern ridging, and associated warmth.
Sure enough, we see model data (GFS ensembles shown here, courtesy of Weatherbell) going towards what a negative PNA should promote- eastern ridging and an associated warmer than normal time.
BUT…not so fast, as the latest MJO forecast keeps things in Phase 2 for a while and doesn’t show near the amplitude it did only a week ago in moving into Phase 3.
As shown above, Phase 2 argues for chill across our neck of the woods, with Phase 3 being much milder.
Let’s watch things unfold this week and revisit this post a bit later as a follow-up with what lies ahead. There’s never a dull moment in this business.
Today can be labeled as the so called “calm before the storm,” as sunny skies greet us out the door. It’ll be a very pleasant Monday with highs in the middle 60s. Sunny skies this morning will turn increasingly cloudy later in the day as moisture continues to stream north associated with Patricia’s remnants.
This morning’s satellite picture:
When we look at the weather picture tomorrow we note the remnant moisture of Patricia continuing to lift north while a cold front approaches from the west. The “squeeze play” that will ensue over the region will be just what the doctor ordered as widespread rain develops during the daytime Tuesday before growing heavy Tuesday night.
8a Tuesday Futurecast
8p Tuesday Futurecast
Overnight Tuesday-Wednesday morning Futurecast
Locally heavy rainfall can be expected. When you average (5) computer models at this point then you get the idea rainfall totals will be somewhere in the range of 1.5″-2″ inches, with locally heavier totals.
Modeled rainfall totals by Wednesday morning
The story after the big rain storm moves away? A very windy and much cooler feel as a strong trough moves into the eastern portion of the country. This will keep temperatures significantly below normal for the 2nd half of the week on into the weekend.
As we continue to enjoy peak weekend for fall foliage across central IN, we wanted to share a few photos we snapped out and about in the Zionsville and Eagle Creek area earlier today. Perhaps it was the wet summer followed by the extended stretch of dry, sunny weather late summer into the fall that has led to such vibrant color across the immediate region- some of the best we’ve seen in years. Regardless, be sure to enjoy as the mid week rain storm and very windy conditions that follow will likely take down a lot of the leaves later this week.
Highlights:
A cold front moved through the area Saturday afternoon and evening and high pressure is now in control with dry skies, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions. All in all, a beautiful autumn day is on tap! Enjoy!
Remnant moisture of Patricia will track north and team up with a cold front in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period. Embedded thunderstorms and locally heavy rain can be expected. This, of course, is much needed after what’s been a dry time of things the past couple months.
The cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday night and put an end to the rain. Strong northwest winds will usher in a much cooler air mass to wrap up the work week.
We’ll continue monitoring the goings on for Halloween. Models have varied from run to run over the past few days and timing issues will likely continue.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.25″ – 1.75″