Category: Autumn

Nov 01

Beautiful Weather…

Screen Shot 2015-11-01 at 8.24.24 AMHighlights:

  • Lots of sunshine to open November
  • Unseasonably warm weather
  • Late week storms with a cold front

We couldn’t ask for better weather to open November.  Look for an extended stretch of unseasonably warm, tranquil conditions.  It’ll be perfect to finish last minute yard clean up or get an early start on putting those Christmas decorations up.  Enjoy!

The next weather system of note will arrive Friday in the form of a cold front.  While timing issues are present, we’re keeping an eye on the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms (some strong).  A drier and cooler air mass will build in next weekend.  An early look at weather next Sunday would suggest frosty conditions for many…

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/beautiful-weather-2/

Oct 31

Unseasonably Warm Open To November…

Screen Shot 2015-10-31 at 8.56.22 AMHighlights:

  • Windy and showery Halloween
  • Dry time returns with warmth
  • Watching a more substantial storm at the end of the week

Good morning and happy Halloween, friends!  We’re off to a cold and blustery start.  Temperatures in the 40s, along with a stiff east breeze is presenting a chill in the air!  A rather gloomy day is on deck with “showery” conditions at times, but there will be more dry time than not.

The second half of the weekend will turn brighter and very pleasant, and this will really set the tone for what will be a very tranquil first few days of November (where is time going)?!  Unseasonably warm conditions will be with us for the balance of the upcoming work week and provide a great opportunity to get those yard chores taken care of or Christmas lights put up.

A more substantial storm system will arrive late week with showers and thunderstorms followed by colder air next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-warm-open-to-november/

Oct 30

Closer Look At Halloween Weather…

As we scan the latest computer models this morning we really see no reason to deviate from our forecast already out there on Halloween. While it shouldn’t be a complete…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/closer-look-at-halloween-weather/

Oct 29

Thursday Morning Weather Rambles…

1.) We’re running 15°-20° colder this morning than this time yesterday. Wind chills in the upper 20s-lower 30s are being felt as winds remain gusty this morning.         2.)…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-morning-weather-rambles-3/

Oct 26

Contradiction In Model World…

After the wet, windy, and chilly spell of weather this week, we have contradicting signals in model world for what lies ahead as we flip the page into November. With so much “noise,” we don’t think it’s wise buying whole-heartedly into any paticular idea for November just yet.

Here’s the plot line…

The PNA trends negative in the mid range and would argue for eastern ridging, and associated warmth.

NegativePNA

Sure enough, we see model data (GFS ensembles shown here, courtesy of Weatherbell) going towards what a negative PNA should promote- eastern ridging and an associated warmer than normal time.


BUT…not so fast, as the latest MJO forecast keeps things in Phase 2 for a while and doesn’t show near the amplitude it did only a week ago in moving into Phase 3.



As shown above, Phase 2 argues for chill across our neck of the woods, with Phase 3 being much milder.

Let’s watch things unfold this week and revisit this post a bit later as a follow-up with what lies ahead. There’s never a dull moment in this business.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/contradiction-in-model-world/