Updated 10.03.23 @ 7:18a
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Category: Autumn
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/03/video-last-couple-really-warm-days-until-next-spring/
Oct 02
What Goes Up Must Come Down…
Updated 10.02.23 @ 7:44a
“Severe” clear dominates weather headlines in the short-term. This and the unseasonably warm pattern we’re currently enjoying is a byproduct of an omega blocking pattern. Look for plentiful sunshine and afternoon highs 10° to 15° + above average through Wednesday. The combination of our dry airmass and longer nights will still allow for comfortably cool lows (mid to upper 50s).
A game changing cold front will come plowing through the region Thursday morning. Models have upped the ante a bit with respect to moisture return. We now believe scattered to numerous showers (embedded thunder) will arrive Thursday morning, continuing into the afternoon and early evening hours. Rainfall totals of 0.25″ to 0.75″ seem like a good bet now with this FROPA, with local amounts to 1″. A secondary front will pass Friday night and Saturday morning with even chillier air behind the boundary. Winds will also turn gusty as we open the weekend. By early next week, patchy frost is possible for areas outside of the city, itself.
The bigger “shock” to the system will likely come from the swing in daytime highs. Those unseasonably warm readings will take a nose dive and result in temperatures close to 10° below normal over the weekend into early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/02/what-goes-up-must-come-down/
Sep 30
Toasty Open To October Takes A Back Seat Late Next Week…
Updated 09.30.23 @ 7:44a
There’s no reason to waste a bunch of pixels on our weather over the next 5 days. Despite morning fog in spots (a byproduct of just enough lingering moisture from rain earlier this week along with the longer nights) we’re talking about a “rinse and repeat” regime with plentiful sunshine and seasonably cool mornings warming quickly to well above normal levels during the afternoon.
High pressure will dominate our weather through Wednesday with dry skies.
2 cold fronts will have eyes on our region late week. The 1st boundary will increase our cloud cover and offer up a passing shower Thursday. The 2nd cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley around a week from today and provide a shot of much cooler air to close the weekend and open the following week.
Moisture levels don’t look impressive with either frontal passage at this point. If we can squeak out 0.10″ we’ll have to count ourselves lucky.
The coolest air of the young autumn season will filter into our region next weekend. A total reversal of the upper air pattern we open the period with…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/30/toasty-open-to-october-takes-a-back-seat-late-next-week/
Sep 29
VIDEO: Warm Days With Plentiful Sunshine Into Early Next Week; True Fall Feel Takes Hold Late Next Week…
Updated 09.29.23 @ 7:42a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/29/video-warm-days-with-plentiful-sunshine-into-early-next-week-true-fall-feel-takes-hold-late-next-week/
Sep 28
VIDEO: Dry Times Return; “Jailbreak” Pattern Next Week…
Updated 09.28.23 @ 7:50a Our warm open to October will reverse in big time fashion week after next. In other exciting news, our annual winter outlook will be posted Sunday…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/28/video-dry-times-return-jailbreak-pattern-next-week/
Sep 27
VIDEO: Another Unsettled Day; Page Turns To Extended Dry And Unseasonably Warm Stretch To Open October…
Updated 09.27.23 @ 7:41a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/27/video-another-unsettled-day-page-turns-to-extended-dry-and-unseasonably-warm-stretch-to-open-october/
Sep 26
Storms Fire This Evening; Early October Blow Torch…
Updated 09.26.23 @ 7a
A closed upper low will pivot across the Ohio Valley over the next couple days. Our quiet start this morning will give way to “bumpy” times by evening. We expect scattered, but strong to severe storms to fire up after 5p. A couple of these could produce hail/ wind and we can’t rule out a quick spin up tornado with this setup.
The Storm Prediction Center highlights most of the area in a “marginal” risk of severe weather today, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this area (particularly western and central IN) is upgraded to a “slight” risk at some point.
Storms should become most widespread just before sunset and continue into the overnight hours.
As we transition into Wednesday, morning convection will likely still linger before greatest concentration of rain and storms pivots to eastern and southeastern parts of the state by afternoon.
By the time all is said and done, many central Indiana rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.50” and 0.75” of rain but there will be a few lucky folks that accumulate much more (type setup capable of 1”-2”+ in localized areas).
As we get set to rumble into the weekend, drier air will return and plentiful sunshine is expected. We still expect an unseasonably warm open to October with an extended stretch of days in the lower to middle 80s- good for 10° to 15° above the norm.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/26/storms-fire-this-evening-early-october-blow-torch/
Sep 25
VIDEO: Rain And Embedded Thunder Returns; Warm Open To October…
Updated 09.25.23 @ 7:48a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/25/video-rain-and-embedded-thunder-returns-warm-open-to-october/
Sep 24
VIDEO: Better Rain Chances Return And Doubling Down On The Colder Mid-Oct Pattern Shift…
Updated 09.24.23 @ 10:44a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/24/video-better-rain-chances-return-and-doubling-down-on-the-colder-mid-oct-pattern-shift/
Sep 23
Cruising Into A Warm Close To September/ Open To October; Mid-Month Changes Brewing?
Updated 09.23.23 @ 7:50a
Dry conditions will prevail through 99.9% of the weekend and for most, 100% of the time. A few very light showers may sneak into western counties Sunday night, but light is the key word. With such a dry airmass in place, most of this activity is expected to arrive in a weakening state.
The temperature pattern is “easy peasy” this week as unseasonably mild temperatures dominate. An extended stretch of highs around 80° can be expected in the week ahead.
An upper low will pivot out of the Mid West and through the Ohio Valley midweek. This will deliver more in the way of unsettled weather for our neck of the woods, but we’re still not overly excited about rain chances.
Scattered showers will build into the picture Wednesday and Thursday, courtesy of the aforementioned upper low pressure system. From this distance, rainfall totals are expected to be light (mostly in the 0.10″ to 0.25″ range) and certainly not uniform in nature.
As we head into next weekend and the beginning of October (can you believe it?!), the ridge will expand overhead and lead to a return of quiet and milder times.
Down the road, as mentioned in this week’s long range report, I still would be very suspicious of the warm paint blob shown on most modeling towards mid-October. The thinking here is the negative EPO and positive PNA will begin to do work, leading to a fairly sizable shift in the ‘mean’ pattern…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/23/cruising-into-a-warm-close-to-september-open-to-october-mid-month-changes-brewing/