Category: Arctic Cold

Jan 01

Happy New Year; All Is Calm (For Now)…

Updated 01.01.24 @ 7:40a

From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a joyous and prosperous 2024, filled with health and happiness!

The weather pattern through Friday is simply about as quiet as one could ask for by early January standards. High pressure will keep us dry and seasonably chilly. A weak disturbance will drift across the northern Great Lakes Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and could set off a few light snow showers, but even if this does take place, we’ve already wasted more pixels than needed. 🙂

A calm, quiet start to the new year is on tap.

Things begin to change this weekend as low pressure organizes in the western Gulf of Mexico with a trough extending north into the central Plains. Both features will move east and then head up the eastern seaboard over the weekend. The all-important question here has to do with the northern energy. Do we get a reflection of a surface low into the Ohio Valley and associated heavier precipitation, or are we mostly bypassed off to the south (thanks to the primary low taking control)? Stay tuned. This picture should become much clearer over the upcoming 24-48 hours. Sensible weekend weather here ranges from an all out winter storm to nothing more than light snow.

Another storm will follow early next week. Finally, a big ole batch of arctic air will likely expand into the region in the 10-15 day period. By that point the question will become just how cold can we go? A lot of that will have to do with what, if any, snowpack we have down by that time. Are we just colder than average by mid January standards or talking sub-zero stuff?

Needless to say, enjoy the quiet times while we have them. A fresh Client video will be posted first thing in the morning with more details on this and more.

Happy new year!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/01/happy-new-year-all-is-calm-for-now/

Dec 31

Potential Is Mighty, But Can It Turn To Reality?

Updated 12.31.23 @ 4:13p

We’re heading towards a “special” pattern over the next couple weeks, especially for winter weather enthusiasts. The potential in the said pattern is mighty, but can potential become reality? Thankfully, we have a quiet open to the month to track all of the possibilities that begin to take their position this upcoming weekend.

It’s easy to become enamored with the expansive trough and coast to coast cold that follows in the 10-15 day range (by the way, truly bitter air should arrive during this period), but what’s more interesting to me is the building Greenland Block. That kind of block usually promotes all sorts of wintry “fun and games” here and across a large chunk of the country. It’s also note worthy as it tends to lead to more sustainable wintry conditions. Perhaps the “extreme and nothing in between” cold solution/ lean for the latter part of January may have merit?

While far too early for specific details, the stormy shift appears to be a good call with the initial storm taking aim on the region this upcoming weekend, followed by a second system that also has the potential of producing wintry weather the early and middle part of the following week. Simply put, the threat of winter storm(s) is growing over the course of the upcoming 10 days.

Details to follow in the week ahead!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/potential-is-mighty-but-can-it-turn-to-reality/

Dec 31

Thoughts On The First Couple Weeks Of The Year (And Beyond)…

Updated 12.31.23 @ 8:40a

The MJO is rolling right into the notorious cold (for this time of year) phase 3 as we open up the new year.

The composite analog for phase 3 in January from an upper air and surface temperature anomaly standpoint:

Ensemble guidance shows the widespread colder than normal temperatures overspreading the country. Like clockwork, this is almost identical to the Phase 3 analog above.

After a quiet week, we’ll watch 2 storms in the 5-10 day period. The first comes along next weekend. While still far too early to get detailed, this one does have potential to serve up some wintry mischief to the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.

The second storm follows and it’s behind this feature that more of a truly arctic air mass will get involved in our pattern.

The pattern will stay busy as the arctic air presses in. At the same time, note the Greenland block beginning to form. Winter weather enthusiasts have to be chomping at the bit by that 10-15 day look. Needless to say, we can expect a rapidly expanding snow pack across the Lower 48 over the next couple weeks.

Thereafter, all eyes will remain on the MJO. Do we roll into the “null phase,” such as what the European suggests or swing through the traditionally mild/ warm phases such as the American guidance portrays? Stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/thoughts-on-the-first-couple-weeks-of-the-year-and-beyond/

Dec 23

A Tale Of 2 Potential Extremes For Late January And An Early Lean…

Updated 12.23.23 @ 3:04p

The stage has been set for some time concerning late December and the first week to 10 days of January. There are no changes on our ideas concerning that timeframe. In short, a colder (certainly from where we’ve been as of late, and slightly below the average), and stormy evolution sums up that period.

The timeframe now in question has to do with mid and late January, after what sure looks to be a 5-7 day period of moderation. Unlike what we’ve outlined for late December and early January, the second half of January is likely to feature more in the way of a case of “extreme and nothing in between” type pattern. As outlined in Thursday’s long range post, up to this point, modeling has a couple of different takes on the aforementioned period. The American guidance suggests a repeat of well above normal temperatures and a general lack of winter weather looms with an MJO look poised for the classic warm phases.

You likely don’t need us to remind you of January and February last year. Indianapolis ran a whopping 8.1° above normal through the first couple months of the year.

The reason? An amplified MJO rolling slowly through the Phases 3, 4, and 5 before getting into the colder phases late February and into March.

Back to present day, the American guidance, though slowly backing off from the aggressive idea from a couple days ago, suggests this is once again on the table. Should that come to fruition, mid January would feature well above normal temperatures yet again.

As the great Lee Corso famously coined, “not so fast, my friend.” The European guidance collapses the MJO into the null, or neural phase, before getting into the warm phases. While a period of moderation still will likely follow the chilly open to January, should the Euro idea be correct (and we suspect it is- more on that below), an eventual recycling through the cold phases would likely ensue late January into early February.

By this point, guidance is also beginning to align on other important pattern drivers. Remember, by mid January, we really start to lean in on what the NAO and AO are doing. That’s certainly not to say we don’t pay attention to the PNA and EPO- just that the AO/ NAO can have greater influence on the regime into early spring. Of course, the MJO remains king.

What’s interesting is that each respective “driver” positions itself in a manner that argues cold should rule during the late January and early February period.

Should that MJO circle back into the traditional cold phases, look out. The window will open for a period of true arctic air getting involved with the pattern given the other pattern drivers above. – Target period would be late January (after Jan. 15th) and into early February.

Given what’s out there for the taking, it’s certainly not a pattern for the faint of heart. Buckle up!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/23/a-tale-of-2-potential-extremes-for-late-january-and-an-early-lean/

Dec 20

VIDEO: A Wet Christmas On Deck; MJO From The Past Shows Clues To The Future…

Updated 12.20.23 @ 7:50a Today is the pick of the week, weather-wise, as partly cloudy skies dominate and a moderating trend takes hold with a south to southwesterly breeze. After…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/20/video-a-wet-christmas-on-deck-mjo-from-the-past-shows-clues-to-the-future/

Dec 19

VIDEO: Pattern Drivers Align For Late Month/ Early January Evolution; Periods Of Wet Weather Returns For Christmas…

Updated 12.19.23 @ 6:55a “Number busting” cold is greeting us out the door this morning. Heavier cold weather gear will be required today, despite sunshine returning. An unsettled, but milder…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/19/video-pattern-drivers-align-for-late-month-early-january-evolution-periods-of-wet-weather-returns-for-christmas/

Dec 18

VIDEO: Snow Squalls Inbound; Gloomy Christmas Weather And A Look Ahead To A Pattern Shift To Close The Year…

Updated 12.18.23 @ 7:49a Snow squalls will become widespread in the coming hours along with gusty winds and falling temperatures. Allow extra time when traveling today as we anticipate road…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/18/video-snow-squalls-inbound-gloomy-christmas-weather-and-a-look-ahead-to-a-pattern-shift-to-close-the-year/

Dec 16

Turning Wet This Evening; Taste Of Arctic Air Accompanied By Snow Squalls Monday…

Update 12.16.23 @ 11:53a A cold front and associated upper level low will move through the Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours. Rain becomes most widespread and heaviest tonight,…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/16/turning-wet-this-evening-taste-of-arctic-air-accompanied-by-snow-squalls-monday/

Dec 14

“The Trend Is Your Friend:” Long Range Discussion Into Mid-January…

Updated 12.14.23 @ 7:22a

Right out of the gate, let’s look at the pattern drivers over the course of the next couple of weeks. By now, you know this starts with the MJO. One has to love the alignment of at least quickly moving out of the current warm phases and into the colder phases. By the 28th, both the GFS and European show us emerging into those colder phases.

The thought here is that we sneak into Phase 8 prior to month’s end and then roll into Phase 1 as we get into early January. The respective temperature composites are below.

MJO: Phase 8 December
MJO: Phase 1 January

That leads us to the PNA and EPO. (Remember, we’ll put more weight into the influence the NAO and AO can have on the regime after mid-January).

The PNA, or Pacific North American pattern, remains in a favorable state for eastern cold.

“Positive” PNA composite pattern

However, the EPO doesn’t want to play nice and will put pressure on any sort of sustained, meaningful cold getting involved over the next 10 days- that is until the MJO gets into the cold phases.

The JMA Weeklies show the progression of the upper pattern best, in my opinion, from any of the long range data that’s currently available for the late December-1st half of January timeframe.

Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3-4

We’ve had several new subscribers of IndyWx.com All-Access over the past couple of weeks so I wanted to take time to drop a direct link to our annual Winter Outlook. As we get set to put a bow on the first month of meteorological winter, there’s no change to our ongoing idea of the winter as a whole here.

I originally thought the shift to a colder pattern would take shape around 12/20 (give or take a couple of days). While that idea appears to be too aggressive, there’s certainly no backing away from the colder pattern progression as a whole, at least from my perspective. The expectation is that we do, indeed, get into the colder phases of the MJO and that sets off the larger global signal that will likely shift the EPO into a colder phase. It’s interesting that the European Weeklies show this exact thing taking shape down the road (once past 1/1).

While we’re not of the thought this evolves into anything frigid (some sort of overwhelming arctic air mass, for example), we do want to double down on the idea of a slightly colder than normal regime taking hold as we get into the new year. The thought here is that this slightly colder than normal pattern will also have staying power through a good chunk of January, given where I believe the MJO will spend the majority of time. What’s also of interest is the energized southern stream beginning to show itself (going to be one heck of a storm roaring out of the Gulf this weekend). I’d imagine we’re only just beginning to see the active pattern take hold and it won’t take much to get a storm or two to try and phase with northern stream energy if we see the evolution take hold that I envision down the road. At the very least, it’s certainly not a boring pattern.

We’ll have more detailed thoughts on the weekend and next week’s pattern in our updated Client video that will be posted a bit later today!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/14/the-trend-is-your-friend-long-range-discussion-into-mid-january/

Dec 08

LR Discussion To Close The Year And Head Into The 1st Half Of January…

Updated 12.08.23 @ 7:22a

As we hone in on the late December and early January pattern, there remains little if any change in the thought here that a more widespread cold pattern will evolve across the eastern 1/3 of the country. We note the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is still showing that it wants to progress out of the traditionally warm December phases we’re in now into the colder phases post 12/20.

Temperature Anomalies: MJO Phase 7 December
Temperatures Anomalies: MJO Phase 8 December
Temperatures Anomalies: MJO Phase 1 January

While we fully anticipate a more sustained colder than normal pattern to evolve in the 12/20 to 1/10 timeframe, I think this should be more of a situation that’s slightly colder than normal versus some sort of major arctic blast. All the same, as we get into the time of year when averages are close to their lowest, that will speak volumes given where we’ve been up to that point through the majority of December.

From a precipitation standpoint, these respective phases usually produce below normal precipitation across our neck of the woods, at least until we get into Phase 1 in January (interesting with the expected colder regime in place by that time period, heh?).

When we go look at the latest European ensemble precipitation anomalies over the next couple weeks (ending Dec. 22nd), the dry theme is alive and kicking. Frankly, it a very El Nino-like look (drier here while wetter across the Southeast and eastern seaboard) and shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Also of interest is the way the longer range weekly modeling shows the trough becoming more prevalent and sustained out in that post December 20th timeframe, continuing into early January.

European Weeklies: Winter wx fans also have to like all of the high latitude blocking on this run while the trough expands and sustains itself. Immediate take-away from yesterday’s run? Chilly and stormy close to the year and open to ’24.

JMA Weeklies: In similar fashion to the Euro, the model really expands and deepens the eastern trough Weeks 3-4. Again, it’s a chilly and stormy look.

In closing, we see no reason to deviate from our long standing idea of a pattern shift to chillier than normal around Christmas that should carry us into the first couple weeks of January. By that point, we’ll have to start monitoring other teleconnections (along with the MJO, of course), such as the NAO, to gain more clarity on the regime as we push into the 2nd half of meteorological winter.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/08/lr-discussion-to-close-the-year-and-head-into-the-1st-half-of-january/

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