Updated 12.12.22 @ 2:50p
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Category: Arctic Cold
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-monday-afternoon-update-on-the-2nd-half-of-december/
Dec 11
Stormy First Then The Arctic Hounds Come Barking…
Updated 12.11.22 @ 6:45a
For fans of cold, wintry weather, we’re heading towards a truly special pattern. Add in the timing of this taking place just before the holidays and that will create additional excitement for many.
A midweek frontal system will usher in the much colder changes. Unlike several of the FROPAs over the past couple weeks, the airmass behind this front will be significantly colder and have staying power. Wrap around moisture and upper level energy will likely generate snow showers/ squalls through the weekend with light snow accumulation.
That then takes us to Christmas week (where is time going?!). While still a bit too far out for specifics, it’s been several years from seeing the kind of setup between an active OHV storm track with the cold air in place. A couple of systems will likely be on the playing field, both of which, will have the potential of delivering accumulating snow. Chances of a White Christmas remain well above normal.
By the end of the Week 2 period, truly bitter cold air will likely get involved with the pattern, especially with an expanding snow pack. This is a classic look for nasty arctic air (below zero type stuff) by late Week 2/ early Week 3.
Buckle up, we’ve got a wild and fun wintry ride on our hands into and through the holidays.
I will be on the road Monday morning so expect delayed posting. I’ll have a client video discussion online by mid to late afternoon.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stormy-first-then-the-arctic-hounds-come-barking/
Nov 30
Trying To Remain “Grounded” With The December Pattern…
Updated 11.30.22 @ 5:46p We’ll have our weekly long range update tomorrow, but wanted to post some thoughts around the December pattern and respective ideas this evening. First and foremost,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/trying-to-remain-grounded-with-the-december-pattern/
Nov 29
Pre-Dinner Rambles: Overnight Wind & Wintry December Grab The Headlines…
Updated 11.29.22 @ 5:48p There’s no change to the timing of embedded storm/ local damaging wind threat this evening as the cold front roars across the state. Some local 50…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pre-dinner-rambles-overnight-wind-wintry-december-grab-the-headlines/
Nov 26
After November’s Cold “Jab,” Is The Stage Set For Winter To Set In?
Updated 11.26.22 @ 6a
November opened well above normal on the temperature front. The first (11) days of the month featured above to well above average conditions, including multiple days with highs into the 70s. A dramatic change followed, thanks to a strong frontal passage on the 11th. The following (10) days were made up of well below normal temperatures, including a few days that didn’t feature highs getting out of the lower 30s. We’re now back to an overall milder than normal time to close out the month (IND officially is running right at “average” as of this post despite the wild swings).
Wild temperature swings are common in the fall and at times those can continue into December. With that said, despite a relatively mild first few days of the month, we continue to believe December ’22 will be made up of more sustained cold than the majority of the Decembers we’ve come to know over the past decade.
Our research from summer began to highlight reasoning for this idea and now that we’re front and center, we note the important pattern “drivers” aligning in such a manner that will likely lead to cold overwhelming our pattern as we move deeper into the month. The negative EPO, combined with the anticipated MJO movement through the traditionally cold phases ups the ante for a wintry stretch as the holidays kick into high gear. Add in a negative PNA (at least initially) and that should provide enough resistance from storms simply bypassing us to the south. Simply put, we believe the chances are high for 1 or 2 accumulating wintry events in the Dec. 5-15 time period. Thereafter, the thought here is that the cold grows stronger and likely deeper into the south.
It’s hard to argue with the overall look of the GEFS Extended below. If anything, I would anticipate the model (and others) correcting colder for mid and late December, especially with the idea of an expanding snow pack taking shape.
Indianapolis averages 6.4″ of snow each December. We feel that the pattern supports above average snow this December to combine with the anticipated persistent below normal temperatures.
Not sure we can get to the level of December ’00 cold (a chief analog year), but it’s fun to see shades of the past providing hints to the future…
At the very least, fans of wintry weather around the holidays can’t ask for a better pattern setup than the stage that’s being set this year.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/after-novembers-cold-jab-is-the-stage-set-for-winter-to-set-in/