Feb 15
* Your full, updated, 7-Day Forecast will be published later tonight. 1.) In the long range, credit the Canadian model for being spot on with yesterday’s snow storm. It was…
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Feb 13
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Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
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19/ 27 |
6/ 26 |
14/ 30 |
23/ 40 |
22/ 43 |
32/ 50 |
38/ 62 |
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2-5″ |
1″ |
0.00” |
0.40″ |
0.00″ |
0.00″ |
0.50″ |
Forecast Updated 02.14.14 @ 11:00a
Accumulating Valentine’s Day Snow…The Canadian led the charge and other modeling has followed suit. The region will deal with accumulating snow Valentines Day as low pressure moves southeast out of Missouri into the Tennessee Valley. We think snow will fall at a good clip, periodically heavy, and begin around mid morning around the city. In fact, a strip of 2-5″ of snow is likely to be laid down between Indianapolis and Louisville later today. Latest radar trends from upstream and banding features suggest snowfall amounts may reach 6″ along the I-70 corridor. Needless to say, if you have travel plans this afternoon plan for snow covered roads and slick travel.
A fresh shot of arctic air will drill south into the region tonight and result in Saturday “wake up” temperatures in the single digits with a biting northwest wind.
Another Fast Moving Clipper…After a mostly dry Saturday, we forecast light snow to build back into the region Saturday night into early Sunday. This will only be a light snow event and most amounts will be in the dusting to 1″ category. The sun should quickly return Sunday afternoon, though it’ll remain colder than normal.
Foggy Start To The Week…As a southerly air flow transports milder air north and over the snow pack across central Indiana fog will develop. It’s possible some freezing drizzle is dealt with Monday morning before temperatures rise above freezing. Prepare for a downright gloomy start to the work week. A cold front will push through the region Monday evening and lead to a period of showers, potentially transitioning to light snow or a light wintry mix Monday night as cold air sweeps back in.
A Spring Tease…A spring tease will have many Hoosiers wanting to break out the shorts by the mid week period. In fact, highs will zoom into the 60s Thursday, courtesy of a strong and gusty southwest breeze. The downside? A line of showers and gusty thunderstorms later in the day. While we still have a week to monitor this situation, the possibility is there for a few storms to reach severe levels across the Ohio Valley region. Stay tuned as we monitor this developing weather situation.
Looking longer term, we anticipate the briefly milder spring “tease” to be just that. Signals are increasingly favorable for a prolonged period of cold, wintry conditions building back into the region as we put a wrap on February and head into March.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/valentines-day-snow/
Feb 12
There’s no doubt we’re looking at a brief pattern change next week that will result in air temperatures that will have many of you craving spring. That said, the key word in that sentence is “brief” and a colder, more wintry pattern looks to return to wrap up February and head into March.
Before we discuss the return of the cold and potentially wintry regime for late month, let’s focus on the milder conditions. Data suggests we may be looking at highs zooming all the way into the lower to middle 60s towards the 20th-23rd time period. The spring tease is likely to come at a cost as the milder southerly breezes likely result in lots of dense fog and areas of drizzle as a deep snowpack remains locked in place. Flooding concerns may also become a concern next week, especially if we inject moderate to heavy rain into the region. 10-day rainfall numbers do have to make us a little nervous as a blend of model data suggests 1″-1.5″ down between now and the 22nd. We’ll continue to monitor things.
Finally, it should be noted that while a brief “relaxation” of the seemingly unending winter is on the way, the long term pattern continues to suggest a cold and wintry time of things continues overall. Next week appears to be an “island of warmth in a sea of cold” type pattern. Latest ensemble data continues to back this idea up. That’s not saying we’re going to deal with the type of severe cold we’ve seen over the past several weeks, but instead means we’re going to go back below normal as we get set to wrap up February and head into March.
The latest GFS ensembles show the evolution of things well. The “double secret probation” European model also shows something similar.
Note the ridge and associated spring “tease” is replaced with a cold and more wintry looking eastern trough rather quickly. Circle the 24th on your calendar for the potential of a widespread storm system. Far too early for details or questions, but the pattern looks to produce some busy times around this point. Before that we have plenty of weather in front of us to deal with… weekend snow opportunities, foggy/ drizzly weather to accompany the initial surge of milder air next week, and a spring tease by late next week!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/next-weeks-spring-tease-is-just-that-a-tease/
Feb 12
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Thr. |
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0/ 27 |
9/ 36 |
21/ 28 |
8/ 27 |
17/ 32 |
24/ 42 |
28/ 46 |
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0.00” |
0.00″ |
1-3″ |
1-2″ |
0.00″ |
0.50″ |
0.20″ |
Forecast Updated 02.12.14 @ 7:50a
Midweek Moderation…While still cold (and still below normal), temperatures will begin to moderate from the frigid readings of the past few days. Additionally, we’ll continue to enjoy sunny skies both today and Thursday, though we’ll add a gusty southwest breeze into the mix Thursday.
Accumulating Late Week Snow…We’re eyeing two fast moving clipper systems that will deliver accumulating snow for late week. The first snow event moves in Friday followed by a second snow maker Saturday. Both have the potential to produce a couple inches of snow across the region and we’ll be able to fine tune these amounts over the next day, or so.
Rainy And Milder…A push of milder air will move in early next week. Unfortunately, the milder air will come at a cost. With the heavy snow pack on the ground combined with the warmer air moving in from the southwest we’ll be looking at a gloomy period, including a couple waves of rain.
A push of colder air will swoosh back in here Tuesday night and could lead to a wintry mix before precipitation end. Looking longer term, we’re still expecting a “taste of spring” late next week!
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/accumulating-valentines-day-snow/
Feb 12
With today’s latest forecast model runs in house, we have excellent run-to-run consistency, the only problem is, that run-to-run consistency amongst each model continues to disagree with one another. We…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snowy-weekend-ahead-or-not/
