Category: Arctic Cold

Feb 21

Agri-Worries: Reason To Be Concerned…

February-to-date is running significantly above average (a whopping 9°+ above average at IND).

The anomalous warmth is impressive enough, but perhaps the most impressive is the duration of the unseasonably warm, April-like, warmth.  By the time all is said and done (Friday night), many communities will set multiple new records for so many consecutive days of 60°+ level warmth in the month of February.  That doesn’t set well for spring vegetation.  Given the look to the overall pattern in the weeks ahead, it’s hard to deny the glaring signs for additional well above normal warmth (speaking in “overall” terms).  Accordingly, vegetation will likely continue to sprout and bloom early with such a pattern- even as far north as here in central IN.

That said, even in the warmest of patterns, “jabs” of late-season arctic air can make it’s presence felt.  Despite our thoughts on being finished with sustained wintry conditions, we’re far from finished with cold “jabs.”  With spring vegetation likely to be well ahead of schedule, concerns are valid for potential damage to early season growth as we move forward over the coming weeks.

Let’s remember, on average, it’s not until we get to mid and late April before we can signal the “all clear” on the last 32° freeze.  Still have a long way to go, friends…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/agri-worries-reason-to-be-concerned/

Feb 09

Bitter Feel Today…

Screen Shot 2017-02-09 at 7.43.52 AMHighlights:

  • Frigid Thursday
  • Milder, but wet this weekend
  • Turning colder next week

Bundle Up…Temperatures are running much colder than this time 24 hours ago with most waking up to the teens.  Throw in a strong and gusty NW wind and the ‘chill factor has fallen to as low as zero for many neighborhoods this morning.  Thankfully, sunshine should be with us this afternoon.

Our wind flow will shift around to the southwest and usher in a milder brand of air by Friday afternoon.  Eventually, that flow will also be an increasingly moist one, as well, and showers will develop Saturday, continuing into Sunday.  We expect the cold front to slip through the state Sunday night and allow colder air to return.

Questions abound early-mid next week.  Whether or not we can get a piece of energy to dig in and create wintry “fun and games” is yet to be determined.  Modeling is going back and forth on that idea, versus, multiple, weaker waves capable of producing scattered snow showers in the colder air mass.  We’ll continue to monitor things.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bitter-feel-today/

Feb 08

Heavy, Wet Snow “Thump” This Afternoon…

The set-up:

A cold front is stalled across TN and lower Ohio Valleys this morning.  Meanwhile, upper level energy is moving out of the north-central Plains.  This upper level energy will continue to slide southeast and “feed” a developing surface low along the stalled front by evening.  Strong frontogenesis is forecast and this will aid in development of localized heavy snow bands and associated intense snowfall rates by afternoon, continuing into the evening.  (If you’re interested in learning more about frontogenesis and it’s impact on winter weather, please read this fantastic paper).  Here’s our updated snowfall forecast.  Please note snow amounts won’t necessarily follow the clean lines below, but this is our best idea as of now.

SnowEvent2.8.17FinalTiming:

We expect initial light to moderate snow to impact northern areas this morning, but it’s not until this afternoon when the “real deal” begins.  The onset of heavy snow will set-up just north of the city and the “bulls eye” with this event from a heavy snow perspective may very well paint itself across Indy’s northern suburbs, including several hours of heavy, wet snow from 12p-5p.  Moderate to heavy snow will then shift south to encompass the city, itself, mid to late afternoon, including the rush hour.  We highly recommend getting home early today if at all possible as the heaviest snowfall rates for the city, itself, will likely center on the evening rush.  Things will likely be very, very messy for travel as heavy wet snow falls.  In periods of heaviest snow, visibility near zero can be expected, especially just north of the city.

Forecast radar 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 4p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 4p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 6p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 6p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Snowfall should begin to diminish and pull east between 7p-8p for most of central Indiana.  Cold air will follow as lows tonight dip into the middle teens for most with a significant snowpack down.  Highs Thursday will only top out around 20.

As always, be sure to follow us on social media (Twitter: @indywx, Facebook: IndyWx.com, Instagram: IndyWxCom) for more updates on the go!  Be safe and happy snow to all!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/heavy-wet-snow-thump-this-afternoon/

Feb 07

Attention Turns To Wednesday Snow…

After a day of spring-like warmth and thunder, Old Man Winter will stage a comeback Wednesday.  Let’s get right to our snowfall forecast:

SnowEvent28171stCallTiming:

Snow will overspread north-central parts of the state Wednesday morning.  Most of this “initial round” of snow will remain north of the city, itself.

hires_ref_indy_21It’s not until we push into Wednesday afternoon and evening that more widespread snow will move through central Indiana, including Indianapolis.

hires_ref_indy_29

hires_ref_indy_31Periods of moderate to locally heavy snow can be expected through central and north-central parts of the state Wednesday evening, especially between the hours of 3p-7p.  This will be a wet snow and though the snowfall intensity should be impressive at times, it’ll have a hard time accumulating from what it otherwise could be if the ground was cold.  With that said, we do anticipate snowfall rates to overcome initially marginally cold air and “warm” surface temperatures.  Our forecast calls for a dusting to 1″ for the city, itself, increasing to 1″-3″ north of the city- encompassing most of north-central Indiana.  Roadways will likely become slushy with wet snow accumulation Wednesday evening.

Brief Shot Of Arctic Air:

Temperatures will fall into the middle-upper 10s for most of central Indiana by Thursday morning with highs Thursday only topping out in the lower to middle 20s.  The arctic air won’t stick around as we zoom back into the lower 40s Friday after a very cold start (upper 10s).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/attention-turns-to-wednesday-snow/

Feb 03

February Tug Of War…

With data only encompassing the first couple days of the month, February has gotten off to a warm start.  As we know, the trend over the past 24 hours has been colder and this will continue as we open up the weekend.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2017However the cold air won’t last and milder times will return by the second half of the weekend.  This back and forth “tug of war” type regime will remain as cold and warmth (relative to average) continue to battle over the upcoming couple weeks.  The latest European ensemble shows this nicely.

EPS2317This also favors a rather active pattern and confidence is high on a wetter than average period upcoming over the next couple weeks.  See the GFS ensembles support this idea.  A couple strong storms are also possible Tuesday.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_4Unfortunately for snow lovers, the majority of significant moisture should fall as rain.  Best snow chances appear to come with “backlash” wrap around snow showers and squalls Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Accumulating snow is possible, but most amounts should be light.  We’ll keep an eye on it.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_19Longer-term, the fight continues deeper into the month.  As mentioned this morning, teleconnections and analogs would suggest cold and wintry conditions, but modeling sure isn’t going in that direction as of yet.  The battle rages on and given the trends of the winter, it’s hard to bet against the warmer solutions, albeit with lower confidence than we’d like to have from this distance.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/february-tug-of-war/