Category: Arctic Cold

Dec 10

Busy Winter Pattern Continues…

screen-shot-2016-12-10-at-8-24-08-amHighlights:

  • Snow arrives tonight for central; northern parts of the state
  • Even colder air coming
  • Pattern of storms and rumors of storms

Snow Develops Tonight…Today is mostly dry and cold, including a mostly cloudy sky.  Clouds will lower and thicken this afternoon and give way to light snow late tonight across north-central Indiana and points north.  As milder air is pulled north Sunday, snow will transition to a wintry mix and eventually a cold light rain across central Indiana.  Further north, this will remain mostly snow before transitioning to a wintry mix.  Precipitation will end for everyone Sunday night.

Here’s the current thinking on storm total snowfall with this event. (Click to enlarge).

snowfallmap121116We’ll open the work week with dry and cold conditions, but all eyes will be on the next arctic front by this time.  It’ll blast through here the middle of the week with even colder air than what we’re currently “enjoying.” 🙂  Expect sub-zero wind chills mid week.  Snow showers and gusty winds remain in the mid week forecast and will require fine tuning as we draw closer.  A quick note, medium range modeling and beyond will really struggle in run-to-run consistency with such a pattern.  The slightest difference in handling respected upper air energy will lead to dramatic changes in the sensible weather the modeling paints.  There’s no sense in changing the forecast daily (or, in some cases, multiple times per day, only to change it back to where we began as time draws closer).

Finally, yet another winter weather maker awaits for the end of the week.  Clouds will be on the increase Friday with snow (or a wintry mix) developing at night.  It’s a busy, cold pattern…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/busy-winter-pattern-continues/

Dec 09

Buckle Up; Active Winter Pattern Is Only Beginning…

screen-shot-2016-12-09-at-7-32-12-amHighlights:

  • Very cold with snow showers diminishing
  • Messy second half of the weekend
  • Awaiting our next storm mid week
  • Frigid air awaits

Wintry Hits Are Lining Up…Fresh arctic air combined with even the slightest bit of upper energy can produce an overachieving snow shower event. As was the case overnight with many neighborhoods through central IN accumulating a coating to around 1″ of snow.  Take it slow this morning and leave extra time to reach your destination.  Bitterly cold air continues to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend (keep in mind our average high and low are in the lower 40s and middle 20s, respectfully).  As we look through the upcoming 7-day period, temperatures will run significantly below average throughout.

Our next storm system is dialed up this weekend.  Clouds will increase as we progress through the second half of the day Saturday and light snow will develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  As the area of low pressure tracks from northern MO into the Great Lakes, we’ll get into a milder southerly flow Sunday.  This will help bring in enough warm air to transition snow to rain during the day Sunday.  Beforehand, a light accumulation of snow is possible in and around Indianapolis (more on potential amounts this time tomorrow).  Heavier snow will pile up across northern Indiana.  Precipitation should shut off rather quickly Sunday night and we’ll be in between systems Monday.

By Tuesday, our attention will turn northwest as we await the arrival of another arctic cold front.  As the front moves in, modeling suggests multiple waves of energy move along the boundary, throwing moisture into the cold air and creating a rather snowy scenario as we progress through mid week.  We need to get through the weekend first, but this could also be an impactful event.  Very windy and frigid conditions move in Wednesday into Thursday, including sub-zero wind chills.  Additional snow chances await next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″- 5″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/buckle-up-active-winter-pattern-is-only-beginning/

Dec 08

Quick Word On The Weekend Storm…

It’s been a ridiculously busy day and a longer post will arrive late tonight, including the updated 7-day. Models continue to struggle on the evolution of things this weekend. The…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quick-word-on-the-weekend-storm/

Dec 07

Busy Winter Pattern…

screen-shot-2016-12-07-at-7-59-56-amHighlights:

  • Arctic air blows in tonight
  • Winter storm potential this weekend
  • Another blast of arctic air next week

Busy Times Ahead…The fun and active winter pattern has arrived and will keep us forecasters on our toes as we go through the next couple weeks.  Early sunshine will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky this afternoon and a couple snow flurries or scattered light snow showers may precede the arctic plunge this evening.  Snow lovers, unfortunately the arctic wave didn’t materialize as we once thought.  (Hang in there, you have many more snow opportunities ahead).  We’ll turn windy tonight and wind chills will fall into the single digits by Thursday morning.  We’ll stay dry, but cold to wrap up the work week.

Eyes will then shift to the weekend as a developing storm system pushes snow into the region Saturday night.  Snow and/ or a wintry mix will continue Sunday.  Where this remains all snow, it’s likely to be a “plowable” event.  We still need to fine tune the details over the next couple of days to hone in on just where the mixing line will set up.  Thinking now is that from Indianapolis and points north, this is mostly a snow event, but stay tuned.

Another round of snow and wind will blow into town early next week.  This will likely be ahead of an even colder push of air by the middle part of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 3″ – 5″
  • Rainfall:  0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/busy-winter-pattern/

Dec 06

Would You Rather Be In The Game Fighting To Win, Or Sitting On The Bench?

The pattern over the upcoming 10-15 days presents a whole slew of challenges, but has the potential to be one winter enthusiasts remember for a long time.  Arctic air is beginning to press and will eventually overwhelm the pattern by the end of the week.  Additionally, a second and third surge of arctic air will be inbound next week.  Each arctic plunge may become more severe as we go, especially if we can get a snowpack down.  The potential is on the table for sub-zero temperatures (not even counting wind chills) by mid-month.  That, my friends, is not normal for December, and is in stark contrast from Decembers of recent memory.  Whether or not we get one “big ticket” event, or deal with a parade of storms that lay snow down is up for debate and will require burning the midnight oil in the good ole weather office as we progress through the next couple weeks.

mid-dec2016The overall set-up is certainly an intriguing one.  Cross-polar flow seeds pressing arctic air into the pattern (again, it comes in “waves” over the next couple weeks, each subsequently stronger).  What’s of particular interest is the battle that develops between a tag-team of ridges- SW and SE (at times these will put up more resistance than the other).  Long-time Hoosiers know that when cross-polar flow gets involved it can “suppress” storms, but rest easy in knowing that the SE ridge will provide resistance.  In fact, some across the lower Ohio and TN Valleys may eventually complain that the southeast ridge is providing too much resistance.

As confident as we are in the overall dramatic flip in the pattern to one capable of producing severe winter weather over the next couple weeks, per usual, the devil is in the details.  Expect a tight gradient between areas where heavy snow begins to stack up and little to nothing- at least initially.  Additionally, depending how things evolve, icing events may eventually require attention for portions of the lower Ohio Valley and TN Valley as that shallow arctic air “oozes” south over what may become quite the impressive snowpack north.  This will require further attention in week 2.

At the end of the day, there will be “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to storms (always are) and each will require our attention and fine tuning.  However, if you’re a lover of winter weather, it’s hard not to sit back and smile at what’s in front of us over the upcoming couple weeks, especially compared to the past couple Decembers.

Needless to say, we’re on the field and in the game…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/would-you-rather-be-in-the-game-fighting-to-win-or-sitting-on-the-bench/