Category: Arctic Cold

Dec 25

Looking at the Holiday Week and Ahead to January…

Tomorrow will be a rather uneventful weather day across central Indiana, but things will begin to change as we head into Thursday.

An area of low pressure will track out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes by Friday. The end result will be increasing coverage of showers Thursday afternoon and perhaps even a rumble of thunder Thursday evening.

Most of the concentrated rain should come to an end around dark Thursday. By that time we forecast a general 1/2″ to 1″ to fall in area rain gauges.

More seasonable air will blow in here behind the storm system and we’ll have to keep an eye on energy “attacking” from behind over the weekend. With colder weather in place, snow is possible next weekend.

Looking ahead, a combination of ingredients appears to be coming together to create a rather significant transition in the pattern as we head into January. Note the developing positive PNA…

This will result in more sustained below normal temperatures making a return early January to our neck of the woods…

Additionally, it also appears an active storm track will continue. While impossible to say this far in advance, prospects for above average snowfall (average is 8.6″) appear likely through the month of January.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-at-the-holiday-week-and-ahead-to-january/

Dec 22

Pre-Christmas Weather Rambles…

I. While we certainly aren’t talking about significant weather events between now and Christmas Day, there will be a couple of impulses of upper level energy that may be just strong enough to produce snow showers and flurries at times.  We’re tracking (2) weak disturbances that stand a chance to get a couple of snow showers going Sunday evening and again Christmas Day.  The one on Christmas, itself, will be a bit stronger and may have a shield of more organized precipitation- likely that would start as wet snow before transitioning to rain before ending.

II. A much stronger storm system will wrap up to our northwest Wednesday night and Thursday.  We’ll notice an increasingly strong southerly breeze during this time period and rain will be on the increase as we progress through the day Thursday.  The trade-off?  Highs between 55° and 60° to close the week- though those temperatures may actually come Thursday evening before cooler air begins to slip in here during the day Friday.

As things stand now, both the GFS and European models, courtesy of Weathermodels.com, aren’t overly excited on rainfall amounts with this storm system, but I think they’ll trend wetter as time goes on.  We’ll continue to forecast amounts between 0.50″ and 1″.

III. All attention is squarely focused on a significant pattern change that takes shape as we head into the new year.  As mentioned in previous posts and discussions, the transition is likely to be a stormy one, but it’s far too early to talk precipitation types.  A combination of ingredients appears to be aligning to create a colder than normal (and potentially significantly so) pattern at the traditionally coldest time of year (mid-Jan).

In the more immediate term, we note the latest GEFS showcases a classic “horse shoe” block that will favor a wintry regime across the east to open the new year- thanks to Tropicaltidbits.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pre-christmas-weather-rambles/

Dec 20

Deeper Look Into The Long Range…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/deeper-look-into-the-long-range/

Dec 08

Cold And Quiet; Big Winter Storm To Our Southeast…

Highlights:

  • Prolonged stretch of cold, quiet weather
  • Major winter storm for the southern Appalachians
  • Next storm delivers rain late next week

Brrrrrrr…It’s another frigid early December morning across central Indiana, but there really isn’t any “exciting” weather to discuss through the early part of next week.  High pressure will supply quiet conditions through the daytime Wednesday.  We’ll notice some mid and high level cloudiness today from a winter storm that will drop historic snow amounts across the southern Appalachians tonight into Monday.  Otherwise, plentiful sunshine can be expected with slowly moderating temperatures into the new work week.

Clouds will lower and thicken Wednesday afternoon and light rain will likely arrive after dark.  Our next storm system will deliver rain and gusty winds in here late week.  Though we haven’t “taken the bait” just yet, there’s the chance of some wind-whipped wrap-around snow Friday.  We’ll give it another couple model runs before building that into the forecast…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-and-quiet-big-winter-storm-to-our-southeast/

Dec 07

Cold, But A Good Supply Of Vitamin D…

Highlights:

  • Frigid start
  • Prolonged stretch of sunny weather
  • Next storm holds off until mid to late next week

Bundle Up…“Number-busting” cold has settled into many Mid West communities this morning as just enough snow cover combined with clearing overnight skies.  The result is a 5º to as much as a 10º difference in actual low temperatures this morning when compared to the majority of guidance yesterday.  Bundle up, as many across central Indiana are waking up to temperatures in the upper single digits to middle 10s.  Thankfully, dry conditions are expected not only today, but straight through the weekend and on into early next week- along with plentiful sunshine!

Temperatures will gradually turn “less cold” early next week and we’re eyeing our next storm system for a Wednesday night to Thursday arrival.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-but-a-good-supply-of-vitamin-d/