Category: Arctic Cold

Dec 22

Dreaming Of A White Christmas?

A busy winter pattern is on our doorsteps and the first of a series of accumulating snow events arrives Saturday morning for central Indiana.  A cold front will settle south across the state this evening, allowing colder air to filter in.  Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure will track northeast from the TN Valley into the lower OH Valley.  This will result in more widespread moisture moving into the region overnight into Saturday morning.  On the northern periphery of this precipitation, a changeover to wet snow is anticipated.  A window of opportunity is present for a narrow, but heavy wet snow band to “thump” for a couple hours and potentially may make roads slick due to the intensity of snow within this narrow zone.  Given the setup and dynamics in play, this type of event has bust potential written all over it, but this is our best idea for a first call.

A more widespread, “uniform” (easier to forecast, as well :-)) snow event will arrive Christmas Eve.  Upper level energy will cross the Ohio Valley and combine with arctic air in place to maximize moisture production.  We expect an expanding area of snow to encompass most of the state Christmas Eve, likely becoming most widespread Christmas Eve afternoon.  With cold air in place, roads will likely get slick in spots so plan accordingly with your travels.

The hits keep coming as we progress into next week.  An additional accumulating snow event may arrive Christmas night into Tuesday, followed by a more widespread and potentially major event late next week…

More later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dreaming-of-a-white-christmas/

Dec 21

VIDEO: Sure Hope You Like Winter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-sure-hope-you-like-winter/

Dec 21

Welcome Back Winter!

Highlights:

  • Mild open to winter
  • Christmas weekend snow
  • Cold returns

Pleasant Open To Winter…It’s a state divided today as clouds dominate across northern portions while the majority of central and southern IN will enjoy plenty of Vitamin D!  It’ll also be unseasonably mild today and Friday as a southerly air flow returns in advance of an approaching cold front.  That cold front will deliver spotty showers Friday and an area of low pressure will track along the boundary Saturday.  This will result in more widespread rain overspreading the region Friday night into the day Saturday. As colder air begins to filter into the region, we’re still thinking a narrow band of wet snow will develop along the northern shield of precipitation Saturday morning.

Turning our attention to Christmas Eve shows upper level energy moving across the Ohio Valley and this will likely result in an expanding area of snow across the region.  If trends continue, we’ll have to bust out the first snowfall map of the season Friday morning.  Are you dreaming of a White Christmas?

A cold pattern will engulf the region next week and we’ll await the middle and latter portions of the week for the potential of additional wintry mischief.  From this distance, it appears this very well may be a significant event.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/welcome-back-winter/

Dec 20

Touching Base On Wednesday Evening: Busy Winter Pattern Awaits…

Before we get into some of the latest thinking concerning the weather around Christmas, we want to reiterate the pending pattern change is one that we haven’t had the pleasure of “enjoying” over the past few winters.  Our idea is that a prolonged significantly colder than normal pattern is with us to close 2017 and continues into (at least) the first few weeks of January.  At times, and especially if we can get a healthy snowpack down, temperatures may become severely cold.  Speaking of snowpack, winter storms and rumors of storms will come fast and furious in this pattern and it’ll be important you keep abreast of the latest forecast as you go about your holiday travels this year.  It’ll be very, very interesting to see how the general public perceives the coming few weeks as winter conditions will be much more impactful when compared to the past few years.  Needless to say, we’ve alerted our snow clients that it’s most certainly time to stock up on the coffee and other energy drinks…some long days (and nights) are likely in this pattern down the road.

Now to the shorter-term:

I.)  Our first winter weather maker will arrive on the scene Saturday.  Guidance today has trended colder, overall, and suggests we need to be on guard for the potential of a narrow, yet possibly heavy, band of wet snow developing on the northern side of the precipitation shield Saturday morning.  As of now, central Indiana into western and central Ohio should keep close tabs on forecast developments.  We’ll have to “hone in” on overall snow placement over the next 24-48 hours, but that’s the best we can do from this distance.

II.)  Additional upper level energy will rotate across the Ohio Valley Christmas Eve and this, combined with arctic air pushing into the region, should maximize moisture production and lead to a period of snow and snow showers Christmas Eve afternoon into early Christmas Day.  This energy should feature some Christmas “magic” and be enough to provide a more widespread light accumulation across the region (when compared to Saturday).

III.)  As we look forward to middle and latter parts of next week, the pattern screams potential is on the table for a more widespread, significant winter storm (Plains to the Northeast).  While obviously early on in the game, the overall pattern does back up the idea presented by modeling.

The wintry hits don’t stop there, but we’ll save those details for later posts.  Make it a great Wednesday evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/touching-base-on-wednesday-evening-busy-winter-pattern-awaits/

Dec 20

Mild Air On Borrowed Time; Turning Wintry…

Highlights:

  • Dry midweek
  • Rain changes to snow
  • Turning bitter

Changes Await…The midweek stretch will feature dry and unseasonably mild conditions.  A storm system will deluge the Tennessee Valley today, but will be too far south to impact our weather.  We’ll shift our air flow around from the northeast today to more of a southerly direction Thursday afternoon.  This is in advance of our next storm system that will deliver showers as we wrap up the last work week before Christmas.

While confidence is beginning to increase in the evolution of things as we head into Christmas weekend, important details are still a bit “iffy” and will require additional fine tuning over the next day, or so.  With that disclaimer, here’s how we see things playing out:

A cold front will slip southeast Friday night and a surface low will move northeast along the boundary Saturday.  The general consensus this morning is that this wave of low pressure will track further southeast when compared to yesterday’s data.  This would yield a colder solution, locally, and subsequent faster changeover to a period of wet snow Saturday.  In fact, if trends continue, we may have to bust out the first snowfall map of the season for Saturday.  Hope for a White Christmas is very much alive and kicking.

MUCH colder air will drill southeast Christmas Eve and with enough upper level energy in place, we forecast an additional period of snow and snow showers Christmas Eve.  Bitterly cold temperatures will take control for Christmas and into early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mild-air-on-borrowed-time-turning-wintry/