Nov 19
Updated 11.19.24 @ 7:37p Before we talk snow, there will be a period of a chilly light rain to deal with mid-to-late morning Wednesday, continuing into the early afternoon (especially…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/11/19/tuesday-night-musings-latest-thinking-on-thursday-evening-and-looking-towards-favorable-period-for-early-season-mischief/
Feb 17
Updated 02.17.24 @ 8:43a
Yesterday’s snow storm was a sight for sore eyes, especially for my snow-starved central Indiana friends (you know who you are).
I took a couple of these pictures outside a cozy dinner at the Loft at Traders Point Creamery last night. “Serene” doesn’t begin to describe the evening.
Low clouds and lingering lake-driven snow flurries this morning should give way to a brightening afternoon sky. We’ll stay bitter today with the fresh heavier snowpack. Highs will struggle to make it into the middle 20s. Winds will remain gusty this morning before a bit of a “lull” and then pick up yet again overnight into Sunday morning.
Those southwest winds will indicate a flip to milder times into midweek and overall dry conditions. Rain will return overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but doesn’t appear to be overly heavy from this distance.
After spring-like highs in the 60s midweek, another cold “jab” will take aim on the region going into next weekend. We use the term “jab” as this once again won’t be a cold air mass with staying power. We likely will quickly return back into the 50s and 60s next week after a day or two in the 30s over the weekend. Timing the cold and moisture may yet again produce a round of snow late next week and we’ll continue to keep an eye on that in the days ahead.
Overall, this will likely prove to reinforce the idea that any cold over the course of the coming couple weeks will be transient in nature. “Islands of cold in a sea of milder times.” We note ensemble guidance is particularly bullish on a spring-like pattern taking foot as we close February and open March. Far too early for details, but we may need to watch for the potential of an active severe weather setup during this time period, as well.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/17/islands-of-cold-in-a-sea-of-milder-times/
Feb 16
Updated 02.16.24 @ 12:14p Snow will continue to overspread the remainder of central Indiana through the afternoon and fall moderately at times. Localized banding should develop this afternoon and these…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/16/lunchtime-rambles-snow-becomes-more-widespread-and-thoughts-on-next-week/
Feb 16
Updated 02.16.24 @ 6:40a
A widespread accumulating snow event will get underway over the coming few hours across all of central IN. At times, localized moderate to heavy snow intensity is anticipated this afternoon before diminishing this evening. A brief, but bitter jab of arctic air will flow into the region tonight and Saturday, including wind chill values that fall into the single digits. Sunshine returns over the weekend.
Snowfall forecast- most of which will accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces. Slushy pavement conditions will develop during times of more intense snow this afternoon. Salting and plowing will be required throughout most of central IN today.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/16/video-snow-overspreads-the-region-and-becomes-moderate-heavy-at-times-bitter-open-to-the-weekend-gives-way-to-a-milder-week-ahead/
Feb 15
Updated 02.15.24 @ 9:42p
Evening update: Looks like we’ll need to “beef” totals up a bit tmrw. We’ll watch overnight guidance but wouldn’t be surprised if we need to build in banding potential that may generate local 3”-4” amounts by Friday evening with tomorrow morning’s update.
A fast moving band of light rain will scoot across central IN mid-morning, but the bigger deal today will be the strong and gusty winds. Gusts upwards of 40 MPH can be expected at times. Hold onto your hats! Attention then will quickly shift to an area of light snow that will overspread the region Friday morning. While the unseasonably mild surface temperatures of late will prevent some of this snow from accumulating, a general 0.50″ to 2″ area-wide snow is expected.
More on the snow, a brief “jab” of arctic air and a look into the updated long range guidance in this morning’s Client video below:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/15/video-snow-overspreads-the-region-friday-fresh-medium-long-range-thoughts/
Feb 14
Updated 02.14.24 @ 7:51a Plentiful sunshine will be with us as we move through our Valentine’s Day along with unseasonably mild temperatures. A brief “jab” of arctic air will be…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/14/video-valentine-sunshine-brief-jab-of-arctic-air-and-snow-to-close-the-week/
Feb 13
Updated 02.13.24 @ 5:32a Quiet weather will be with us as we move through the next couple of days before a fast moving and weak disturbance delivers a few showers…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/13/video-keeping-an-eye-on-friday-brief-jab-of-arctic-air-to-follow/
Feb 12
Updated 02.12.24 @ 7:50a The feature we were watching for the potential of southern IN snow later tonight now appears to be even further south- dropping snow on our friends…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/12/video-tracking-2-systems-in-the-week-ahead-mild-signals-continue-to-mount-longer-term/
Feb 11
Updated 02.11.24 @ 3:31p
I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing and fun Super Bowl Sunday afternoon! Before we talk longer range, trends this afternoon have been to shove the heavier snow banding potential further south tomorrow night. We’ll keep an eye on overnight model trends but the threat of accumulating wet snow is looking more likely to impact far downstate into portions of northern KY and even western and portions of north-central TN now.
While we’ll trend at least closer to seasonal levels in the upcoming 10-day period (also need to keep an eye on the potential of late week snow and a brief arctic “jab”), the impact of a lack of MJO amplitude into the colder phases (8, 1) and the positive trends on the EPO late month suggest the once cold idea during the period here will be a fail.
In fact, latest ensemble guidance in today shows a milder than normal pattern to return during the last week, or so, of February.
Just a couple quick updates prior to the big game! Enjoy, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/11/pre-super-bowl-rambles-cooler-week-ahead-but-milder-late-month-trends/
Feb 06
Updated 02.06.24 @ 5:27a
We’re pushing 6 days now since our last measurable precipitation and that unusually calm, boring stretch of weather will continue for a couple more days. Despite some low clouds at times, expect our quiet and unseasonably mild weather pattern to continue. A late week frontal passage (FROPA) will pull a true taste of spring north into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. We still don’t anticipate this being a significant precipitation maker for central Indiana.
A secondary (much stronger) low pressure system will ride along this pressing boundary and impact areas to our east (and south) with heavier precipitation over the weekend into early next week. The southern Appalachians once again may “cash in” on a hefty snow event.
This more active period comes as a wholesale pattern change gets underway with a significantly colder air mass aimed to overwhelm much of the Lower 48 as we push into next week.
We note longer range models showing cross polar flow setting up late February. To no surprise, the ante is upped for the threat of a period of significant cold prior to month’s end.
We’ll watch for the threat of new winter weather opportunities to emerge during this colder pattern down the road.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/06/tuesday-morning-rambles-opportunity-for-cross-polar-flow-late-month-and-looking-ahead-to-a-renewed-active-pattern/