Jun 26
This evening’s video update discusses the building heat and humidity into the holiday week, but also hits on the need to include daily storm chances in our extended forecast, as…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-heat-and-humidity-build-this-weekend-cant-rule-out-storms-either/
Jun 07
Slow moving thunderstorms are currently producing small hail and torrential rainfall north of Lafayette (as of 5:45p Thursday). We have reports of 1″ to as much as 1.5″ of rain falling near Battle Ground in less than an hour.
Eventually these storms should pick up momentum and head off to the southeast later tonight.
This is only the beginning of daily rain and storm chances in a warm and humid air mass through the weekend and on into early next week. The culprit? An upper level ridge centered over the southern Plains and “spokes” of energy, or upper level disturbances, rotating around the periphery of the hot dome to our southwest.
An increasingly muggy air mass will take hold of the region as we close the work week, with dew points approaching 70° at times. The term “air you can wear” comes to mind. As impulses of energy interact with this tropical air mass, thunderstorms will blossom- particularly in the afternoon and evening hours.
We’ll have to nail down specifics with storm coverage and timing within our short-term forecast products and updates, but each day into early next week will feature coverage of storms across central Indiana. Future forecast radar products show scattered to numerous storms around Friday evening and again Saturday. Get used to this look.
Looking down the road, a “sticky” summer feel will remain intact through next week, but changes are brewing in the longer range. These changes would support a cooler regime developing just past mid-June (in the 10 to 15 day time frame). While the duration is up for debate, it’ll be nice for at least a few days of cooler air…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tropical-feel-with-daily-storm-chances/
Jun 05
Models have been suggesting that the middle of June (roughly June 10th-20th) would turn increasingly stormy and wet. The JMA led the charge several weeks ago with this idea. The GFS and it’s ensemble data has, for the most part, been on board with this line of thought, as well. On the flip side, more times than not, the powerful European forecast model has suggested we shouldn’t “hold our breath” on the prospects of a wetter shift. With the target period now only a few days out, it’s time to “put up or shut up.” I was chatting with a good friend of mine Tuesday evening concerning the recent dry conditions for the heart of central Indiana and that we’re heading into a “telling time” starting as early as this weekend. Should the wetter scenarios pan out I think it’ll be enough to keep the worst of the heat and droughty conditions west of Indiana for the balance of the summer. (Please know that’s not us saying it won’t turn dry at times, but instead just that the worst of the heat and dry conditions would be placed to our west).
While the all-important surface results differ, it’s encouraging to see that at least from the perspective of an upper air pattern standpoint, both models are rather similar. More significantly, this pattern would support rounds of thunderstorm complexes tracking southeast into the Ohio Valley this weekend and into early next week.
While impossible to nail down exactly which back yards would see beneficial rainfall, it would be an overall more conducive pattern for widespread showers and thunderstorms for our general region. We’ll have to lean on high resolution, shorter-term models as time draws closer to gain more insight around more precise timing and track details, but we continue to trend our forecast wetter Friday through Sunday than we’ve been over the past couple weeks- Alberto remnants excluded.
Come this time next week we’ll have a much better idea of where the balance of the summer is going, locally. Should beneficial rains fall, it’s still not too late in the season to have a significant longer term impact on summer as a whole. In fact, if we can get water in the ground, it would be easier to buy into the cooler regime the models are currently showing late-June. At the very least, an interesting weekend lies ahead…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/telling-time-ahead/
May 29
In our JMA Weekly recap from last week, we noted the model was transitioning towards a wetter pattern for early and mid June.
It’s encouraging to see the latest ensemble data from the American GFS and European (courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com) support this idea, as well.
In addition to a wetter pattern, we would also want to pay attention to the potential of a gusty storm complex or two riding southeast around the hot dome off to our southwest.
After an unusually dry May (- 3.44″ as of this post), Alberto’s remnant moisture will help us, at the very least, cut into the rainfall deficit tomorrow. Longer term, it sure is nice to see the medium range guidance in agreement on a wetter time of things. As we’re all aware, this is a crucial time to determine the overall long-standing summer pattern. Dry ground and early warmth can easily “feedback” on itself, and it’s easy to understand some of the concern, particularly AG-related over the past few weeks. With that said, it’s certainly not too late to try and at least ease some of the worry a bit.
When we look at the MJO, we note the amplitude and it’s forecast to swing through the wetter phases, at least locally, (4,5,6) through the month of June:
In closing, the JMA Weeklies led the charge in the idea of more active times returning in June, and the combination of GFS and European ensemble data suggests they had merit. With the added bonus of having the MJO on our side, it’ll be hard to avoid a change of the guard towards an overall wetter pattern in the weeks ahead. Perhaps Alberto’s remnant moisture is only the beginning…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-from-the-recent-dry-regime/
May 18
An upper level low pressure system will track northeast today into tonight, and as it does, look for more numerous showers and embedded thunder to develop. Some localized heavier downpours are a good bet this evening across central Indiana.
Otherwise, look for considerable cloudiness and highs topping out in the lower 70s today.
While we’ll have to contend with a few showers Saturday, overall, the day should be drier compared to today and what lies ahead Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, we’re monitoring the potential of a couple of storms reaching strong to severe levels to close the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center includes central portions of the state in a “marginal” risk of severe with their update Friday morning. It wouldn’t surprise us if a portion of the marginal risk is upgraded to a “slight” risk in future updates. We’ll fine tune storm timing over the next 24 hours.
As we look ahead to the end of May, there really aren’t any significant changes to the overall warmer than normal theme we’ve enjoyed so far this month. Longer range guidance off of the European ensemble continues to support broad scale upper ridging across the Mid West and Ohio Valley and a corresponding warmer than average regime. From a precipitation perspective, the next couple of weeks do look more active compared to the dry start to the month. Case in point, the balance of the upcoming week will be dominated by a stalled frontal boundary. While we’ll have to fine tune exactly where the front stalls, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (scattered fashion) can be expected.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-unsettled-weekend-ahead-and-closing-out-may/