Mar 06
After tomorrow’s accumulating snow event, we’re tracking 2 storm systems and a temporary warm-up over the weekend into next week. Don’t get used to the warmer air, as a positive…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hectic-march-pattern-rumbles-along/
Mar 04
This evening’s long range video update discusses the pattern drivers behind the late-March weather pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-all-access-long-range-update/
Mar 03
Snow will overspread central Indiana through the late morning hours into the afternoon.
While the overall idea where the accumulating snow would fall was a good one from early week, our initial expected amounts won’t come to fruition. The reason? The storm system is much weaker and faster moving than originally modeled.
Accordingly, this is a 1″ to 2″ type event for most of the area. The majority of the snow will fall from noon to 5p.
This same storm system will be responsible for a severe weather outbreak, including the possibility of a couple of strong tornadoes, across the Deep South this afternoon.
Back here on the home front, MUCH colder air will pour into the region this evening, remaining in place into the new work week. Back-to-back nights with lows in the upper 0s to lower 10s can be expected across central Indiana Monday and Tuesday mornings.
This is all part of the overall colder than normal first half of March, powered by the SOI crash (several week ago), deeply negative EPO, and MJO rumbling through the cold phases.
Additional storm dates to keep note off include Thursday night into Friday (more of a wintry threat with the 3/7-3/8 system) and Saturday into Sunday (potential strong thunderstorms with the system on 3/9-3/10).
Looking ahead, it still appears the mid-March warm-up is on track as the EPO flips to positive.
With that warm-up will also come a return of heavier precipitation events and a continued overall active storm track across the region. Precipitation looks to run above average for the mid-month stretch.
We’ll dig deeper early week on what lies ahead as we close the month of March and look ahead towards April…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snow-update-and-looking-ahead-towards-mid-march/
Feb 25
Average temperatures through the 1st (5) days of the month include highs of 46 F and a low of 29 F at Indianapolis. Instead, a frigid pattern will grip the region as we move through early March, including highs that will likely only top out in the lower to middle 20s and lows in the upper single digits to lower 10s as we move through the first week of the month (coldest centered on Sunday through next Wednesday).
Should we get any sort of snow down during the period (still up for debate as of this evening), lows will likely approach 0 F. The best opportunity for accumulating snow over the upcoming week would come Friday night into Saturday, but confidence remains low. Thereafter, we prefer the “suppressed” ideas currently portrayed by modeling as more meaningful winter storm threats impact the lower Ohio/ TN Valley and southern Appalachian region- especially with such an anomalously cold pattern in place.
Speaking of cold, the deep and expansive snowpack across the central and northern Plains won’t allow the late season taste from the arctic to modify as much as it may otherwise. As the frigid air mass settles southeast, below zero wind chill values are a good bet early next week across the northern half of the state. “Tap the breaks” on meteorological winter kicking off March 1st…
With that said, the NAO and AO are expected to remain positive and while initially “trumped” by the significantly negative EPO, this will trend positive by mid-month. These all suggest the cold is limited and that there shouldn’t be any change to the idea that we really begin to feel more spring-like by the middle of March. This is backed up by the continued idea that the MJO rumbles into Phase 4 by mid-March, as well (again argues for warmth).
Sure enough, longer range models show the ridging and associated warmer times ahead:
It should be noted that with the mean trough position taking up shop across the western portion of the country mid-March, not only should we moderate, but we should also see a return of wetter/ stormier times. With the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) running above normal, early season severe weather outbreaks will have to be closely monitored…
The new European Weeklies in this evening also back up the idea of an unseasonably cold 1st half of the month giving way to milder conditions by mid month. The model paints a drier than normal pattern over the Ohio Valley and Mid West over the next couple of weeks before wetter signals return by the middle of March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/frigid-open-to-march-and-late-month-musings-reviewing-the-new-european-weeklies/
Feb 24
Top wind gusts today have reached 66 MPH at IND with numerous reports of downed trees and power lines throughout the northern half of Indiana.
As we look ahead through the upcoming week, a couple of rather minor systems may deal light precipitation to the area, but it’s what lies ahead next weekend that’s already drawing interest. Unfortunately, modeling is trying it’s best for a “repeat” high wind event next Saturday.
The overall setup is eerily similar as a rapidly strengthening surface low tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region. This setup would once again support 50+ MPH gusts.
With the pattern change underway at this point, colder air will be more readily available and backside snow may be more “meaningful” next weekend. That’s something we’ll be keeping a close eye on.
Winter weather enthusiasts will have a couple of weeks of at least being on the playing field for the possibility of late season accumulating snow, but it continues to look like that window closes quickly by mid-March as a true spring pattern takes hold.
For those who watch the operational data with each and every update (sometimes as much as 4 times per day)- tread with caution. While significant late season winter storms can result from such a pattern change that’s underway, it’s impossible to worry about specifics in this type of regime until within 4-6 days.
It would appear the pattern would support potential “fun and games” next Saturday, the 2nd, and possibly again in the March 5th-6th time frame.
Enjoy it while you have it, lovers of winter… Signals continue to point towards a significant shift to warmer times for the 2nd half of March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/potential-wintry-mischief-through-early-march-late-month-changes/