Category: AG Report

Aug 06

Long Range Update: Changes Loom For Mid-Late August…

August has opened unseasonably cool and refreshing. There’s even been a hint of fall to the air the past couple of mornings. The refreshing feel will continue as we wrap up the week, but changes for the warmer and muggier loom.

The first (5) days of the month are running more than 5° below normal for Indianapolis.

Even before we look at the respective model data for mid-late August, it’s important to note we’re basing our long range forecast (this was a byproduct in building our August Outlook) on the MJO heading into Phases 8 and 1 over the next couple of weeks. These are considerably warmer and wetter phases for our region and that fits our idea. Perhaps of interest beyond the next couple of weeks is that the amplitude should continue into Phases 2-3 as we wrap the month and head into early September. That, combined with other factors, will likely serve to re-ignite the tropics to close the month and head into the 1st month of meteorological fall.

Note the warmer, wetter look associated with Phases 8 and 1:

The CFSv2 is following this trend in the latest Weeks 1-2 outlook:

The latest European Weeklies are also in and paint a similar picture:

The JMA Weeklies follow a like path, but not as wet as we believe Week 2 will be:

The thinking here is that while we’re certain to warm in the mid-late month period, we still aren’t talking about any sort of prolonged periods of excessive heat. The more active upper air pattern will result in multiple frontal boundaries and disturbances scooting through the region to serve up more widespread, organized rain and storm chances. In short, we feel good about the rebound coming that should result in a month, as a whole, close to average in the temperature department with above to well above normal rainfall.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-changes-loom-for-mid-late-august/

Jul 25

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

I. Tracking (2) cold fronts this week

II. Tropics remain a topic for the foreseeable future.

Well below normal temperatures will descend into the central while the coasts maintain the heat.
Wetter than normal conditions are expected from the central Plains into the Southeast and western Gulf.
We forecast around 1″ of rain for immediate central Indiana through the forecast period (with locally heavier totals).
A few strong to severe storms are possible Monday PM as a cold front moves through the region.

Forecast Period: 07.25.20 through 08.01.20

High pressure will remain in control of our short-term weather resulting in dry conditions prevailing for most through the weekend. As we move into the new work week, the 1st of (2) cold fronts will sweep through the state. Accordingly, rain chances will increase Monday, including the potential of a couple strong storms ahead of the cold front. The front will move through the region relatively quickly and we forecast dry (and cooler) conditions to return by Tuesday. The pattern gets much “murkier” by the middle to latter portions of the week as guidance continues to waffle on handling a second feature in what’ll be an anomalous pattern by late July-early August standards. While data struggles on handling the specifics, we’ll remain consistent with a more unsettled time of things by Thursday into Friday (and potentially next weekend based on how things play out). Stay tuned.

One additional note, the quick start to the tropical season is not without good reason. Unfortunately, all indications continue to point towards a hyperactive season (byproduct of favorable MJO and SST configuration). Next up will likely be a threat to the SE US coast (too early to say between the Gulf or Atl) just after Day 10.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-15/

Jul 24

Long Range Update; Initial August Forecast…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-initial-august-forecast/

Jul 19

More Thoughts On August…

The last month of meteorological summer is on our doorstep and while we’re still several days from having our finalized forecast built, here are some early ideas on where the pattern is going for August. First, let’s start with some modeling:

European

The Euro features the ‘mean’ ridge axis across the inner-mountain West with a northwesterly flow aloft into the Ohio Valley and eastern Lakes. Given the 500mb pattern, one would think the model would have the heat and wet areas shifted west to better correlate with the ridge placement, but that’s not the case. One item of note is that the model may be seeing tropical influences with the wet area across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic.

JMA

The JMA is similar with the handling of the 500mb pattern, but better aligns the temperature and precipitation pattern with this look at the upper levels. Brunt of the heat (relative to normal) is across the West with a wet Southeast and Ohio Valley.

CFSv2

While a bit chaotic with the precipitation idea, the CFSv2 seems to be locking the warmer anomalies into the Central and East for August.

As has been the case, the MJO will likely have a big say in the August pattern (and continuing into the fall and winter). Despite modeled attempts in the past to swing things into Phases 4-7, we’ve been stuck in the 8,1,2, and 3 cycles over the past several months, and in Phases 1-2 over the past 40 days.

The EPO and PNA are in warm phases and this looks to continue overall into early August.

The early lean with our August forecast will feature a large area of above normal temperatures, including across the Ohio Valley (slightly so), along with near average precipitation. We’ll continue to look through the data and present our official August Outlook week after next.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-thoughts-on-august/

Jul 18

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

I. New heat wave gets underway.

II. Keeping eyes to the sky for periods of gusty storms.

Temperatures will run above average across the eastern half of the country through the period.
Above average rainfall is expected from the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the period. The Southeast will run drier than normal.
Specific to central Indiana, we expect 7-day rainfall numbers to be very close to 1″ with locally heavier amounts.
A threat of severe weather is present Sunday (damaging winds are the greatest concern).

Forecast Period: 07.18.20 through 07.25.20

A hot and humid stretch of weather will dominate the upcoming forecast period, including another multi-day stretch with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s. The saving grace? Timely rains. After a mostly dry Saturday (only isolated storm coverage expected), more widespread storms are expected Sunday. Some of these could become strong to severe Sunday afternoon, including the threat of damaging winds as a complex moves south through the state. This unsettled theme will continue into the 1st half of the work week with each day offering up scattered showers and storms. Drier air will briefly nudge into the Ohio Valley Thursday and Friday before storm chances return next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-14/