While a period of unsettled weather looms late Monday and Tuesday, the majority of the upcoming week will feature quiet conditions across our neck of the woods. We’re watching Tuesday afternoon for the potential of severe weather across the state.
The ‘mean’ trough will settle into the western CONUS and that’s where the coldest anomalies will setup shop.
A trough will take up residence across the West with only glancing blows of cooler air, locally.
A chilly week is in store for the West with the temperature swings balancing out very close to average across our area this week.
Rainfall will run average to slightly below average in the week ahead south and east.
Forecast period: 03.24.24 – 03.31.24
We’ll close the weekend with quiet conditions in place. Anticipate gusty winds to kick up Monday as our next storm system approaches from the west. This will also deliver a few showers Monday night before heavier rain and embedded thunder arrives Tuesday predawn. An additional round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe (damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out).
A cold front will sweep east and end the rain/ storm threat Tuesday night with calmer weather returning for mid and late week. The next chance of rain will arrive next weekend. Speaking of next weekend, though early, model guidance is suggestive that we may be looking at a heavy rain event around the time that we close out March and open April. Just something we’ll be keeping an eye on in the days ahead.
Updated 03.17.24 @ 8:10a The theme for the bulk of the week ahead will be both cooler and drier. A few mornings will feature a hard freeze, including overnight lows…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Indianapolis is running right at average month to date from a rainfall perspective (1.78”).
We’re transitioning to a much drier pattern in the week ahead as a cooler, Canadian airmass dominates (for a change).
Several hard freezes (mid-upper 20s) are on tap in the upcoming 7-10 day period: Monday/ Tuesday morning and again late next week/ next weekend.
Cooler? Yes, but I still don’t see anything overly cold on the horizon as we navigate the next couple of weeks.
What’s more notable is the shift in the precipitation pattern over the next few weeks. The dry Week 1 (now) transitions to a significantly wetter and more active look Week 2 (below).
The JMA also sees the wetter regime.
This is forecast to continue in the Weeks 3/4 timeframe.
Continues to back up the idea of an active (wet) and stormy (more in the way of severe weather) spring as a whole.
Down the road, an eventual move into a hot, dry (compared to normal) summer may loom. (Yet one that is very active from a tropical perspective, continuing into the fall). More on that in the coming weeks…
An unseasonably mild week is on tap with a couple chances of rain and embedded thunder. Widespread, organized severe weather isn’t anticipated in the upcoming week.
An anomalous upper air pattern will drive an unseasonably mild and at times wet regime, locally. Temperatures will run well above average in the week ahead across the Central and Eastern portion of the country with unseasonably cold conditions across the West. Plenty of 60s and even 70s are in store for daytime highs in the week ahead. Greatest deviations from normal in the rainfall department will come along the Southeast and Eastern seaboard. Slightly above normal rains are anticipated through the central Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes region.
Forecast Period: 03.02.24 – 03.09.24
After a quiet weekend (including a progressively brighter sky :-)), unsettled weather will come at us in 2 waves in the week ahead: Monday evening into Tuesday morning and again Friday evening into Saturday. In both cases, we expect widespread precipitation. In the case of our early week system, embedded thunder (non-severe) can’t be ruled out. With our late week storm system, the early call now is for more of an organized general rain to fall. Colder air will return to the region by the latter part of next weekend, potentially including some snow showers by Sunday.
Though a bit earlier than usual this year, it’s time to “dust off” our dedicated weekly post aimed solely at looking at the potential of severe weather in the week ahead. You can expect this to be posted each Sunday morning moving forward through the spring and summer before sunsetting for another year come late September.
An anomalous pattern will dominate the period as we close February and open March. The eastern ridge will become stronger in response to a digging trough across the Western CONUS.
Well above average temperatures can be expected for the Plains and Eastern CONUS through the upcoming week. Cooling behind our midweek frontal passage will be brief before another significant warm-up late week.
The upcoming 2-week period should yield above average precipitation to the majority of the forecast area (to well above average across the Southeast).
Forecast period: 02.25.24 through 03.03.24
The “headliner” system in the forecast period is an area of low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday (02.27 and 02.28). This will drag a trailing cold front through the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning into the afternoon (west to east).
The Storm Prediction Center includes most of the region in some sort of risk of severe weather Tuesday. The greatest risk of severe appears to include an area north and west of a rough line from Evansville northeast to Bloomington and Toledo, OH. While all modes of severe weather are in play, we remain most concerned for the threat of damaging straight line winds Tuesday PM.
Ingredients aren’t off the charts (rarely are this time of year), but parameters are sufficient enough to warrant the chance of strong to severe storms Tuesday into very early Wednesday morning before the cold front moves through the region and results in falling temperatures and a much more stable airmass engulfing the entire OHV through the day. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune specific timing of storms.
Beyond this point, an area of high pressure will settle overhead, resulting in a much more stable pattern to close the week and head through the weekend. Expect sunshine to return and another quick warm-up to get underway during this period. Highs will zoom back into the 60s next weekend.
Looking ahead, we’ll need to monitor the threat of another potential strong-severe storm window during the early to middle stages of next week. Far too early for specifics, but similar ingredients appear in play which isn’t shocking given the ‘mean’ upper air pattern shown to open this post. We also want to reiterate the above to well above average precipitation expected throughout meteorological spring. Image 3 above highlights the wet look over the upcoming couple weeks.
