Category: 7-Day Outlook
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Perfect Close To The Work Week…Canadian high pressure will remain in control of our weather to wrap up the work week and supply dry skies and unseasonably cool temperatures. The cool, crisp, autumn like start to the day (most are awaking to temperatures in the 40s) will only warm into the upper 70s this afternoon with lots of sunshine.
Unsettled; More Humid…Multiple disturbances will move through the region over the weekend into next week. While we target a chance of showers Saturday, better chances of rain are ahead Sunday. Rain that tries moving in here Saturday will initially have a difficult time and weaken (not totally dissipate) due to dry air in place on the front end of the weekend.
Temperatures Going Up…It’ll feel very much like summer around these parts late next week as temperatures warm to above normal levels and flirt with the polarizing 90 degree mark.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″-2.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/15/crisp-chilly-start/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, NAM Model, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
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August 14, 2014
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Reinforcing Cool Air Blowing In…A reinforcing push of cool air is blowing into town today and will result in a downright chilly night ahead (especially considering the time of year). A couple showers can still be expected across south-central parts of the state, but won’t amount to much. The big news will be the chilly temperatures tonight as we forecast upper 40s officially in the city and low to mid 40s across northeastern suburbs. Highs will only climb into the middle 70s with lots of sunshine Friday.
Warmer And More Unsettled…Temperatures will moderate into the weekend, but we’re also going to introduce rain chances back into the picture. Most of Saturday will remain rain-free, but we can’t rule out scattered showers and thunderstorms as the first in a series of disturbances tries to overcome initial dry air in place. Better rain and storm chances will prevail Sunday.
Heavy Rain Next Week…Forecast rainfall numbers continue to rise next week as a series of weather makers impacts central Indiana. A good consensus would place 1.5″ to 2″ of rain down, with locally heavier totals. Stay tuned as we fine tune timing.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.5″-2″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
We’re enjoying another colorful sunrise across central Indiana this morning. John Salewicz snapped this scenic photo earlier this morning. Thanks, John!
Throw an extra blanket on the bed tonight! Temperatures will dip into the mid to upper 40s for many.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/14/throw-an-extra-blanket-on-the-bed-tonight/
Clouds will increase this evening and an isolated shower is possible though most will remain dry. More on this and a look ahead to the weekend and beyond in the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/13/cool-close-to-the-work-week-longer-range-talk/
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Evening Shower Chance…A frontal boundary will push through the region this evening and while moisture will be limited overall, don’t be surprised by an increase in cloudiness and an isolated shower as the front moves through. Overall, we’re looking at a beautiful day, along with continued below normal temperatures.
Nice Late Week Stretch…The late week stretch will be dominated by high pressure and slowly moderating temperatures. We’ll start well below normal, but temperatures will creep back to seasonable levels over the weekend.
Unsettled Times Ahead…More unsettled times are ahead late in the weekend into next week. We still have details to iron out, but we’ve introduced rain into the forecast as early as Sunday. Some of the rain may become heavy at times early next week. Stay tuned.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
John Salewicz captured this shot of an autumn looking sky Tuesday morning as unseasonably cool air was pouring in. Thank you, John!
While moisture will be limited overall, don’t be surprised if a few showers dot the landscape this evening as a reinforcing push of cool air blows in.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/13/shower-chance-this-evening/
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Fall-Like Breeze…The second of two cold fronts moved through central Indiana overnight. A weak trough of low pressure is yet to pass, but will do so this afternoon and may be accompanied by a couple of showers. Otherwise, we’ll enjoy a stiff northwesterly breeze today and it’ll feel very much like early fall out! The humidity of yesterday is long gone and we’ll really begin to notice the drier feel to the air this evening.
Dry skies and early fall-like temperatures will continue Wednesday. Some may even start the day in the upper 40s away from the city, especially across western suburbs.
Weak Cold Front…A weak cold front will blow through Thursday, but moisture will be limited. While an isolated shower is possible, we chose not to even bring out the shower icon for Thursday, as these will be just that- “isolated.” Most will remain dry and unseasonably cool.
Warming Up…Temperatures will begin to moderate going into the weekend and push to above normal levels early next week. We’ll keep a close eye on the weekend as past forecast model runs suggested some rain may enter the picture Sunday. Most recent runs keep us dry through the weekend, but key on a storm system late Monday into Tuesday with possible beneficial rainfall.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″-0.50″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Fall-like temperatures are ahead over the next couple days. We forecast an official low in the city tonight in the middle 50s, but some upper 40s can be anticipated across western and northwestern suburbs.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/12/fall-like-feel/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Fog, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
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August 11, 2014
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Air You Can Wear…We’re awaking to lots of fog and very muggy conditions. Dew points remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s (very oppressive)! A shower or thunderstorm will be possible really at any time today, but most likely this afternoon as the first of two cold fronts drops into the region. Similar to yesterday, locally heavy downpours will certainly be possible with all of the moisture in the air.
A secondary cold front will blow through Tuesday with a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. We’ll get in on a much cooler and drier air flow Tuesday evening and this will set the stage for a very pleasant rest of the work week, including below normal temperatures into the weekend.
Warming Up; Chance Of Storms…Temperatures will moderate and we’ll introduce showers and thunderstorms into your forecast Sunday. Early thinking on next week suggests a potentially unsettled (stormy) one, but warmer than average.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Precipitable water values will once again approach 2″ today and assist in locally torrential downpours around the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/11/feeling-tropical-now-but-cooler-air-coming/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Heavy Rain, HRRR, NAM Model, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos
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August 10, 2014
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to impact central Indiana, along with localized flash flooding (precipitable water values are currently above 2″ in spots and suggest localized very heavy…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/10/unsettled-couple-days-ahead-before-a-taste-of-fall-by-mid-week/
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Widely Scattered Showers, But Most Remain Dry…Most concentrated rain and heavier rainfall totals will remain confined to southern portions of the state as an area of low pressure continues to impact the region. Here across central Indiana, look for lots of clouds, but little in the way of concentrated rain over the weekend. A widely scattered shower is possible today and Sunday, but most will remain rain-free. We officially call for a high around 80 today and in the lower 80s Sunday, but want to stress there will be a wide range in highs both days across central Indiana (due to cloud cover).
Early Week Cold Front…A cold front will sweep the state late Tuesday. Ahead of this boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon. Low pressure will form along the frontal boundary over Indiana Tuesday before moving northeast into the Great Lakes. This may aid in better coverage of showers and thunderstorms locally on Tuesday. Otherwise, we’ll note a wind shift and cooler, drier air pouring back into the area Tuesday evening.
Beautiful Mid/ Late Week Stretch…A beautiful stretch of weather is on deck for the middle and latter portion of next week. Early fall-like conditions can be expected Wednesday and Thursday, before temperatures begin to moderate Friday.
Looking a bit past the 7-day forecast shows our next storm system taking aim on the region next weekend.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-0.75″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Widely scattered showers will be possible this weekend across central Indiana. More concentrated, heavier, rain is on tap across southern portions of the state.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/09/lots-of-clouds-around-but-not-much-rain/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Fog, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
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August 6, 2014
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Watching Storms To Our Northwest…Fog is locally dense in many communities across central Indiana this morning and it’ll take a couple hours to burn off. Plan for extra drive time on your way to work and school. Once the fog burns off we’ll look at mostly cloudy skies today along with the chance of showers this afternoon. A complex of thunderstorms is off to our northwest this morning and the general track will take this complex of showers and storms into our general area later this afternoon in a weakened form. Not everyone will get wet, but rain chances will be around this afternoon and evening.
Friday Battle…Forecast models continue to struggle with exact heavy rain placement Thursday night into Friday, mainly due to how they handle an area of high pressure to our north. Thinking here continues to suggest we’re under the gun for a rather rainy Friday, but must maintain this is a lower than normal confidence forecast. Central and southern Indiana appears most at risk for locally heavy rainfall, including some 2″ totals somewhere in the aforementioned region. Widespread 0.75″-1.25″ amounts remain a good bet.
Increasing Sunshine This Weekend…Sunshine will be welcome after a rather gloomy work week. We forecast high pressure to build in and supply partly cloudy and pleasant conditions this weekend before rain chances return early next week.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
We’ll keep an eye on showers and thunderstorms to our northwest this morning. Forecast high resolution data points to this arriving into central Indiana in a weakened form this afternoon.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/06/mostly-cloudy-with-afternoon-shower-chance/
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Cold Front Just North…A cold front will slowly sag south into central Indiana over the next 24 hours before stalling nearby. Some added energy will rotate along the boundary Wednesday and lead to somewhat more widespread coverage of thunderstorms across the region (scattered to numerous coverage). As far as today- look for more of those splash and dash afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, including some locally heavy downpours.
Best Rain Chances Friday? Model data continues to trend towards better chances of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall Friday in response to an area of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary. It’s important to note that there’s still some disagreement among forecast model solutions, but we feel increasingly confident on Friday offering up more in the way of widespread rains in response to this area of low pressure.
Drying Out This Weekend…High pressure will build into the region over the weekend supply drier air and increased sunshine. Perfect timing, heh?!
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.75″-1.25″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Before we enjoy a dry weekend, most model data is focusing on Friday for the best chances of widespread rainfall. This is in response to an area of low pressure moving along the tail end of a cold front.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/05/turning-more-unsettled/
