Category: 7-Day Outlook

Dec 19

Frigid Open To The Week; Wet Christmas?

screen-shot-2016-12-19-at-8-58-45-amHighlights:

  • Bitterly cold to open the week
  • Mid week snow chances
  • Wet Christmas

Bundle Up…The frigid theme of December 2016 continues as overnight lows dipped to between 3 and 6 below zero for most central IN reporting sites.  By the way, IND is running (6) degrees below average, month-to-date.  Needless to say, December 2016 (top) is nothing like December 2015 (bottom).

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conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2015

Though still chilly, temperatures will moderate into mid week before our next system rolls in.  Clouds will increase Wednesday and give way to a chance of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning as upper level energy rotates overhead.  Models likely will have to play “catch up” again with this mid week system and we’ll keep a close eye on data.

As we look at Christmas, itself, a warmer regime looks to build in, courtesy of a southwest flow.  This is in response to the southeast ridge flexing it’s muscle and driving a rather intense storm system northwest through the Plains states.  Blizzard conditions will likely result northwest of the low track while showers and thunderstorms develop in the warm sector, including the MS Valley into the Ohio Valley.  We’ll introduce a chance of thunderstorms into our Christmas Day forecast, as well.

Longer-term, a rather significant pattern shift will continue to close the month of December into early January and this will drive a shift from the bitterly cold conditions to much milder times as we open 2017.  Winter fans, have no fear, the seeds are already being planted for a return to frigid and active times just beyond the new year…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/frigid-open-to-the-week-wet-christmas/

Dec 15

Active Winter Pattern Rumbles Along…

screen-shot-2016-12-15-at-7-44-16-pmHighlights:

  • Busy weather weekend
  • Fresh shot of bitterly cold air
  • Christmas week snow chances

Buckle Up For A Busy Winter Pattern…Thursday featured the coldest December 15th high (13 degrees) in a whopping 27 years. Talk about impressive.  This was good for an amazing 26 degrees below average.  Let that sink in…

We’ll wrap up the work week and head into the busy weekend before Christmas with a new round of challenges.  A couple of warm fronts will lift north through central IN Friday.  Snow showers may accompany the first warm front early Friday before the second warm front lifts north Friday night.  This will result in more widespread wintry precipitation, likely to begin as a period of light snow before a quick transition to sleet and freezing drizzle during the overnight.  Temperatures will warm overnight Friday and precipitation will change to light rain Saturday morning.  That’s when our attention turns to the first of two cold fronts that will sweep through the state.  The first cold front will lead to a quick changeover to sleet and snow Saturday evening (thinking between 6p-8p as of now).  As a secondary wave of moisture moves northeast along the boundary, expect a light accumulation of snow Saturday night.  The second cold front (arctic) will blow through late Saturday night and early Sunday morning and lead to a frigid Sunday.  That 25 degree high you see Sunday will come at midnight as temperatures crash through the day.  Add in a stiff northwest wind and wind chill values will fall below zero (yet again) in the Sunday-Monday time frame.

We’ll briefly calm things down during the early Christmas week period and remain cold.  Our next storm system is slated for a mid week arrival and could deliver a round of accumulating snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  More on that after this weekend system.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″ – 4″
  • Rainfall: 0.20″ – 0.40″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-winter-pattern-rumbles-along/

Dec 14

“Not Fit For Man Nor Beast;” Winter Issues This Weekend…

screen-shot-2016-12-14-at-9-20-36-pmHighlights:

  • Bitter feel
  • Weekend storm
  • Reinforcing arctic air to open Christmas week

Heavy Winter Gear Required…An arctic cold front slammed into central IN Wednesday evening with plummeting temperatures, strong and gusty (40 MPH) winds, blowing snow, and just a downright “rude” feel.  Those bitter conditions will remain through the close of the work week, including dangerous wind chills Thursday.  In fact, we still expect wind chills to fall into the 10-20 degree below zero range through the morning, and remain below zero most of the day.

We’ll flip the page and turn our attention to our next storm system as we rumble into the weekend.  Clouds will increase Friday and moisture will begin to override the cold air locked in place at the surface by the evening and nighttime.  With sub-freezing air still present, this moisture will likely fall as a combination of sleet and freezing rain across central Indiana Friday night.  Eventually, temperatures will warm (briefly) above freezing Saturday morning and allow precipitation to transition to light rain.  Before that takes place, slick road conditions could develop Friday night from the sleet/ freezing rain mixture.  Needless to say, we’ll keep a close eye on the latest data as it comes in.

Almost as fast as we go above freezing Saturday, temperatures will begin to fall once again during the afternoon and evening as heavy, dense, arctic air “oozes” southeast.  As this is happening, a second wave of moisture will ride northeast along the pressing arctic cold front.  We expect precipitation to break out yet again Saturday evening and night, and fall as a wintry mix before ending as snow.  (Additional light ice and snow accumulation potential).

Temperatures will fall through the day Sunday along with strong and gusty NW winds.  Wind chills will once again fall below zero Sunday evening into Monday morning…

While the frigid conditions will “relax” as we go into the middle of Christmas week, we have an eyebrow raised for the potential of “fun and games” just beyond the current 7-day period.  Far too early for specifics, but the potential of wintry prospects around Christmas are alive and kicking…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″
  • Snowfall:  1″ – 2″

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/not-fit-for-man-nor-beast-winter-issues-this-weekend/

Dec 13

Bitter Times Ahead; Weekend Storm…

screen-shot-2016-12-13-at-6-20-11-pmHighlights:

  • Bitterly cold
  • Weekend storm delivers a little bit of everything
  • Cold reloads over the weekend

Cold That Hurts…Tuesday was a snowy day across central IN. Most snow reports checked in around 3″, but there were a few “lucky” folks who accumulated north of 4″.  Not bad at all!

Two pieces of arctic air will invade mid week.  The first piece is arriving on the scenes as we type this forecast Tuesday evening.  It’ll send lows into the single digits to lower teens by Wednesday morning.  Patchy freezing fog will also be noted in spots.  Needless to say, don’t get too confident on area roadways.  Despite the phenomenal work central IN road crews do (seriously, thank you), there will be icy spots tonight and Wednesday morning.  Slow down!  🙂

A second surge of arctic air will arrive Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Everyone gets in on the single digit party Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  In fact, don’t be surprised by a few folks checking in with a below zero report here and there.  Winds will be strong and gusty and lead to wind chill values of 10-20 below zero into Thursday morning.  Heavy winter attire will be required.

Our attention then shifts to a developing weekend storm that will deliver a wintry mix late Friday followed by a transition to rain as temperatures zoom (briefly) into the 40s Saturday.  The milder surge won’t last long as arctic air oozes back into central parts of the state Saturday afternoon and evening.  As this is happening, a second wave of moisture will ride up along the arctic front.  We expect rain to mix with and change to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain before ending as snow Saturday night/ early Sunday morning.  This may be another accumulating wintry event and we’ll keep a close eye on things.

Cold, dry weather will be with us as we kick off Christmas week.  Speaking of Christmas week, the bitterly cold air will “relax,” but the pattern remains active.  Despite the relaxation in the frigid times, conditions will remain cold enough for wintry potential leading up to, or around, Christmas…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bitter-times-ahead-weekend-storm/

Dec 12

Snowy Tuesday; Bitter Mid Week Ahead…

screen-shot-2016-12-12-at-5-55-48-pmHighlights:

  • Snowy Tuesday
  • Bitter Mid Week
  • Weekend Storm

Accumulating Snow Event…Upper energy will combine with an approaching arctic front to lead to an accumulating snowfall event for many across central Indiana Tuesday.  We expect snow to increase in coverage and intensity just prior to sunrise before turning moderate to briefly heavy from mid to late morning on into the early afternoon hours.  In general, we paint a band of 1″-3″ through the heart of central Indiana, but do have some concerns localized banding features could result in a 4″ pop here and there (impossible to pinpoint the precise locations these bands may set-up across central IN as of this update).  Expect a messy morning commute.

121316snowfallforecastFresh arctic air will pour into the region tomorrow evening, along with a gusty NW wind.  Tuesday’s snow should be rather wet in nature so we don’t anticipate blowing/ drifting issues to result as the arctic hounds roar into town.  However, there will likely be periods of flurries and scattered snow showers as the bitterly cold air arrives in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame and this could lead to light additional coatings in spots.  The big weather story through mid and late week will be the bitter air.  “Air that hurts” is what we’re calling it and wind chill values will approach 20 degrees below zero Wednesday night/ Thursday morning.

Our next storm system is still slated to arrive for the weekend.  As of now we forecast snow and a wintry mix Friday evening.  This will then change to rain Saturday before arctic air quickly oozes back in here and leads to a potentially messy Saturday night-Sunday morning.  Rain will transition to freezing rain and sleet Saturday evening before ending as a period of snow.  It’s back to the ice box we’ve come to know all too well Sunday into Monday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″ – 5″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snowy-tuesday-bitter-mid-week-ahead/