Category: 7-Day Outlook

Dec 18

VIDEO: Rain Pushes Out Of The Region This Afternoon; Quiet Open To Christmas Week…

Updated 12.18.21 @ 6:30a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/18/video-rain-pushes-out-of-the-region-this-afternoon-quiet-open-to-christmas-week/

Nov 25

Rain Moves Out; Much Colder Air Arrives…

Updated 11.25.21 @ 6:53a

Our Thanksgiving morning is off to a wet start but the rain won’t last all day. A cold front will push across the state this afternoon (arriving into Indianapolis around noon) putting an end to the rain and allowing much colder air to blow in. Before that takes place, anywhere from 0.25” – 0.50” of rain is expected through the morning hours.

The airmass will grow cold enough by evening to allow snow showers and squalls to fire up off Lake Michigan and track into north and east central parts of the state (not expecting any significant accumulation).

Black Friday will feature a return of dry and sunny conditions but it’ll be cold. A gusty northwest wind will mean you’ll want to grab the heavier coat out the door as temperatures that start out in the lower 20s won’t rise out of the 30s Friday afternoon.

The upcoming week will showcase a series of storm systems zipping by across the northern tier but most, if not all, of those systems will remain north of our immediate area. A generally quiet week of weather is forecast for now, once we get the upcoming 12-24 hours behind us.

From our family to yours, have a safe, happy, and blessed Thanksgiving.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/25/rain-moves-out-much-colder-air-arrives/

Oct 16

Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…

Updated 10.16.21 @ 8:10a

The upcoming 7-day will feature a trough of low pressure along the eastern seaboard and a new trough pushing into the West. In between, transitional ridging will take place through the central.
Above average temperatures will be found across the northern tier with below normal air strung across the south.
Most of the country can expect below normal precipitation this week. The exception being northern New England and the far PAC NW.
We forecast between 0.10″ and 0.20″ of rain here in central Indiana during the 7-day period. That will be associated with a low pressure system and associated cold front Thursday.

Forecast Period: 10.16.21 through 10.23.21

A true fall cold front blew through the region during the overnight. You can certainly feel the difference out the door this morning as northwest winds blow the chilly, much drier air into the region. Highs today will struggle to crack the 60° mark. “Sweater weather, anyone?!” We’ll prep for the first round of patchy frost in outlying areas by Sunday morning as temperatures dip into the mid and upper 30s, winds go calm, and skies are clear.

As we head into the new week, much needed dry time can be expected to open things up as high pressure dominates. Look for a string of sunny days and cool, clear nights. This will give the “nudge” needed to ignite what’s otherwise been a delayed and sluggish fall foliage season.

Our next system of note will arrive Thursday in the form of a low pressure system and trailing cold front. Showers are expected to arrive Thursday morning from the west. We’re not talking about impressive rainfall numbers with the front, itself (on the order of 0.10″ to 0.20″ Thursday), but the period heading into next weekend remains in limbo between forecast models duking it out with the wetter GFS and drier European. We’ll see if we can get more agreement over the next day or two.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/16/weekly-agwx-and-harvest21-outlook-7/

Sep 05

Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…

Updated 09.05.21 @ 8a

The upper air pattern this week will feature a trough across the Northeast and Great Lakes with an upper ridge anchored over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will run below average from the Ohio Valley into the MS Valley, with well above normal temperatures expected across the West.
Most of the country can expect below to well below average precipitation in the week ahead. The one exception? Northern New England.
We only forecast 0.10″ to 0.25″ of rain here in central Indiana during the 7-day period.

Forecast Period: 09.05.21 through 09.12.21

A very quiet weather pattern will settle into the region as we go through the upcoming week. The one exception to that is Tuesday night as a cold front quickly passes through the area. Moisture levels will return ever so slightly ahead of the boundary and may be enough to produce a couple of storms Tuesday evening (widely scattered coverage). The front will help to reinforce the dry airmass in place, along with provide cooler temperatures for mid and late week. As we look ahead beyond this week, indications are that things will moderate and turn a bit more active (though that’s admittedly not saying much, considering just how quiet things will be this week).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/05/weekly-agwx-and-harvest21-outlook/

Aug 22

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook: Heat, Humidity Top Story, Locally; Henri Impacts New England…

Updated 08.22.21 @ 6:30a

An upper level ridge will expand across the Ohio Valley through the upcoming week. Meanwhile, a trough will continue to provide unseasonably chilly air for the northern Rockies and inner-mountain region.
Well above average temperatures will take up shop from the central Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Unseasonably chilly conditions will prevail across the northern/ central Rockies.
Above normal precipitation is expected in association with Henri across New England. The northern Plains and upper Midwest can also expect above normal rainfall in the week ahead.
We forecast on average between 0.50″ and 1.00″ of rain across central Indiana in the upcoming 7-day period.

Forecast Period: 08.22.21 through 08.29.21

The overall weather pattern in the week ahead will feature an expanding ridge of high pressure into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. This will lead to oppressive heat and humidity expanding northeast (multiple days of highs into the lower 90s with high humidity values will make it feel closer to 100° through early and middle parts of the work week). Meanwhile, a persistent trough will continue to take up residence through the early part of the forecast period across the northern Rockies (additional early season snow will fly for the high peaks above 12k feet). The other big story during this forecast period? Henri, of course. Henri will deliver quite a blow to our friends in New England beginning later today, continuing a heavy interior rainfall threat through the early and middle part of the work week.

Back here on the home front, each and every day will feature isolated storm coverage. While “isolated” is the key word, if you find yourself under one of these storms, a quick 1″+ of rain is a good bet with the moisture content we’ll be dealing with. Somewhat better storm coverage is anticipated during the 2nd half of the work week (we’ll label it “widely scattered to scattered.” ;-)).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/22/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-heat-humidity-top-story-locally-henri-impacts-new-england/

Aug 15

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 08.15.21 @ 8a

The 7-day period will be dominated by an eastern ridge while a trough carves itself into the inner-mountain West.
Below normal temperatures will take up shop across the inner-mountain West and spread throughout the south. Meanwhile, anomalous warmth will prevail across the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and into the Northeast, and Mid Atlantic.
Tropical moisture will lead to well above normal rainfall across the Southeast and into southern Appalachia.
We forecast on average between 0.50″ and 1.00″ of rain across central Indiana during the week ahead.

Forecast Period: 08.15.21 through 08.22.21

The past 36 hours has provided a nice change of pace as of late with lower humidity and cooler temperatures. (Several reporting sites across northern Indiana are in the lower 50s this morning with middle 50s as far south as the Indianapolis suburbs). As we look to start the new week, humidity will be on the increase along with a daily chance of scattered thunderstorms beginning as early as Monday, continuing Tuesday. We will try and inject briefly drier air in here Wednesday which should reduce coverage of “splash and dash” storms before scattered storms return to close the week. As we look ahead to Saturday, better storm coverage is expected as a cold front moves through the region.

A couple of other items of interest on a broader scale include the first snow of the young season falling across the northern Rockies this week, as an early shot of winter-like air descends south from Canada. Also, from a tropical perspective, we’ll keep close eyes on what comes of Fred and Grace. As it sits today, we still don’t anticipate impacts here in central Indiana from either systems.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/15/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-42/

Aug 01

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 08.01.21 @ 2:23p

The predominant upper air pattern this week will feature “troughiness” centered in the Ohio Valley with ridging across the PAC NW.
Below normal temperatures will be found from the southern Plains east and northeast (greatest departures from normal across the MO and western OH Valley region) as we progress through the first week of August.
Wetter than normal times can be expected across the Gulf Coast and up the eastern seaboard, along with the inner-mountain region.
We only expect central IN area rain gauges to accumulate between 0.10″ and 0.20″ on average over the upcoming period.

Forecast Period: 08.01.21 through 08.08.21

A secondary cold front will slip through the state this afternoon and may spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but “isolated” is the key word. Most will stay rain free in the upcoming week as high pressure dominates. This will be a quieter start to August than is typical, and also much cooler and less humid than we’d expect. In fact, multiple nights this week will feature low temperatures falling into the mid and upper 50s, especially outside of the city, itself. Out next best chance of organized showers and thunderstorms can be expected next Sunday. Enjoy the unusually quiet, cool, and dry weather. We’ll moderate (and turn more active) as we head into Week 2…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/01/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-41/

Jul 24

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 07.24.21 @ 7:23a

The ‘mean’ upper air pattern will feature a persistent trough over New England with a ridge (hot dome) across the central Plains in the upcoming 7-day period.
Well above normal temperatures will be anchored across the central Plains and points north and west through the upcoming week. New England will feature below normal temperatures. After a hot start to the week, temperatures will cool late week, locally.
Above normal rainfall can be expected across the Great Lakes region into New England.
In general, we forecast between 0.50” and 0.75” of rain in the upcoming 7-day period across central Indiana, but there will be locally heavier amounts.

Forecast Period: 07.24.21 through 07.31.21

The upcoming 7-day period will place the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in a northwest flow aloft. This is a notorious pattern for “ridge riding” thunderstorms to roll right into the general region (and sometimes during the hours not typical for storms this time of year – overnight and early morning). While it’s impossible to say exactly when and where these potential storm clusters may track, we’ll keep a watchful eye on the short term period through midweek across our general area. Sometimes these storm clusters are capable of more widespread damaging wind. While the most persistent, serious heat will be well off to our northwest, we can expect a few hot days to open the forecast period (low 90s) before we cool significantly late next week and into next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/07/24/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-40/

Jul 18

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 07.18.21 @ 7:48a

The upper pattern over the upcoming 7-days will feature a persistent ridge across the West with a trough across the East, tailing back into the South.
It’s a tale of 2 different stories this week from a temperature standpoint: cooler than normal across the East into the southern Plains while heat bakes the northern Plains.
The active pattern will take at least somewhat of a breather to open the new week, locally. The heavy rain/ active storm track will shift south and impact the TN Valley/ Deep South. Wetter than normal conditions are also noted across New England, and monsoonal moisture will plague the Four Corners.
Most central Indiana rain gauges can expect to accumulate between 0.25″ and 0.75″ of rain in the upcoming 7-day period.

Forecast Period: 07.18.21 through 07.24.21

We’ll finally see a period to dry things out to open up the new week. That’s a good thing as we’re running a whopping 3.7″ above normal, month-to-date. High pressure will supply increasing sunshine and eliminate rain chances from our forecast today through Tuesday. Our next opportunity of showers and thunderstorms will come Wednesday as a frontal system scoots through the area. We’ll then get back into a more active stretch as a northwest flow aloft offers up the chance of southeast moving storm clusters to impact our weekend plans. We’ll need to monitor things as we get closer. In addition to a heavy rain threat, this kind of upper pattern has been known to support storm clusters that can also pack strong winds on the leading edge. The other big story this week will be a continued lack of heat. Before we get back to stormy times, the Sunday through Tuesday stretch will truly feature “chamber of commerce” type weather by late-July standards. Get out there and enjoy!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/07/18/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-39/

Jul 17

VIDEO: One More Round Of Rain This Evening Before A Drier Open To The New Week; Active Times Return By The 2nd Half Of Next Week…

Updated 07.17.21 @ 9:34a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/07/17/video-one-more-round-of-rain-this-evening-before-a-drier-open-to-the-new-week-active-times-return-by-the-2nd-half-of-next-week/

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