Category: 7-Day Outlook

Oct 15

Falling Temperatures Today; Dry Weather Returns…

Highlights: 

  • Temperatures fall through the day
  • Sunshine returns this week
  • Pleasant stretch of weather ahead

Jackets And Sweaters Required By This Afternoon…A cold front will continue to march east this morning and this will push a broken band of showers east through the state.  Rainfall amounts won’t be significant, but will be enough to be a nuisance on the way to church or brunch this morning.  This afternoon, we’ll notice an increasingly gusty breeze and falling temperatures.  While it’s mild this morning, it’ll feel much cooler as we progress through the afternoon and evening hours.  Jackets and sweaters will be required!

High pressure will settle overhead for the upcoming week and this will lead to an extended period of dry, pleasant weather.  Temperatures will moderate from seasonably cool early-week to unseasonably mild by late-week.  As expected, the late September and early October warmth (particularly warm overnight lows) really stunted our fall foliage this year.  That said, the cool, calm nights ahead this week will be sufficient enough to at least ignite some of the remaining leaves on trees for what should be a couple weeks of “decent” color ahead.

Longer term, there are big goings on behind the scenes that will help drive a dramatically different weather pattern to wrap up the month of October and head into November.  Heads up to the parents out there, you may want to nudge the kiddos into picking a warm costume this Halloween…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/15/falling-temperatures-today-dry-weather-returns/

Oct 12

Weekend Warmup Ahead Of The Coolest Air Of The Season…

Highlights:

  • Weekend Warmup
  • Scattered showers Sunday morning
  • Gusty winds and falling temperatures

Weekend Changes…Before we discuss our weekend weather, we should finally see the “doom and gloom” depart later this afternoon as enough of a southwest breeze and drier air helps scour out the low clouds, drizzle, and fog.  Improvements will come slowly, but surely as we progress into the afternoon hours.

A delightful Saturday is dialed up, including what’s very likely to be our last 80° reading until next spring.  Northern portions of the state will get in on some shower activity Saturday, but we’ll remain dry and windy here on the home front.  As the cold front draws closer to the region, scattered showers and embedded thunder will blow into town Sunday morning.  This won’t be a significant rain event and the much bigger deal will be the falling afternoon temperatures and gusty northwest breeze.  You’ll need a jacket before the sun sets Sunday.

The cooler ending to the weekend is a harbinger of things to come as we open the new work week.  In fact, temperatures will fall low enough to warrant a patchy frost risk for outlying areas away from the metro Monday and Tuesday mornings.  Sun-filled skies and cool, crisp afternoons are on tap next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/12/weekend-warmup-ahead-of-the-coolest-air-of-the-season/

Oct 10

Ups And Downs Of Autumn…

Highlights:

  • Early morning rain ends
  • Cooler air arrives
  • Warm Saturday
  • Much cooler close to the weekend

Buckle Up…Early morning showers and embedded thunder should press northeast of the region before the rush gets underway.  All the same, expect damp roads on the way in to work and school Wednesday morning.  Additionally, we’ll notice a much cooler feel to the day, including nearly steady or slowly falling temperatures.  After a seasonable high Thursday, dry conditions and moderating temperatures will be with us to wrap up the work week.

Our next storm system will take aim on the region this weekend.  Dry conditions will prevail Saturday, along with a gusty southwest wind that will help aid in boosting temperatures to around 80° (where’s that college football weather)?!  That southwest (warm) wind will be in advance of an approaching cold front that will deliver scattered showers Sunday.  Not everyone will get wet, but everyone will notice the much cooler close to the weekend.  Temperatures will fall Sunday evening with a gusty north breeze.

Early next week will open dry and cool.  – Just classic fall weather that most of us have come to know and love this time of year around these parts!

Looking ahead, there continue to be signs that point towards potentially a more significant shift in the weather pattern that would result in a rather dramatic cold transition to wrap up the month.  More on this later.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/10/ups-and-downs-of-autumn/

Oct 09

Active Week Of Weather…

Highlights:

  • Warm open to the work week
  • T-storms return
  • Weekend cold front

Active Times This Week…With the exception of patchy morning fog, the work week will get off to an uneventful start.  Unseasonably warm conditions will continue with sunshine.

A storm system will move out of the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday.  This will help spread an initial round of showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana Tuesday morning, followed by more widespread showers and embedded thunder Tuesday evening into the predawn hours Wednesday.  Drier and cooler air will return Wednesday afternoon and Thursday is shaping up to be the coolest day of the week (very close to our average high of 66° for the date).

The cool air won’t last long as a southerly air flow returns in advance of our next storm system.  Saturday will be dry and breezy before clouds increase Sunday and scattered thunderstorms arrive Sunday afternoon and evening.  A more significant shot of cool air will invade early next week behind the frontal passage.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/09/active-week-of-weather/

Oct 08

Sunday Morning Notebook; Active Pattern Remains…

For a change, the past (7) days has been generous to central Indiana from a precipitation perspective.  As we’ll discuss, a new rain maker awaits this week.

A look at rainfall totals over the past 7 days, courtesy of weatherbell.com.

Officially, IND sits at 0.26″ above normal, month-to-date.

It’s also been an incredibly warm start to the month (IND is running 10° above normal, month-to-date) and that warm theme won’t change through the near-term.

An all-too-familiar pattern engulfs the country late week.  This will showcase more “bonus” summer-like conditions, locally, that will include highs approaching 80° next weekend with a strong southerly flow in place.  Additionally, early winter-like conditions will continue to impact the western high ground.  The pattern definitely represents a Nina look.

The southeast ridge will provide more bonus summer-like conditions next weekend across the eastern half of the country.

In the shorter-term, a new rainmaker will move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday.  This will spread showers and embedded thunder across the state Tuesday PM into Wednesday.  In general, this storm system should deliver 0.50″ – 1″ of rain, but there will be locally heavier amounts.

Thereafter, dry times will settle in along with slightly cooler temperatures.  Let’s remember it was only a few days ago where modeling suggested a “pop” of the season’s coldest air thus far.  No longer is that the case, and while it will turn briefly cooler, temperatures will still remain above average.

A southerly air flow will return late week and help boost temperatures next weekend, along with continued dry times through the balance of the weekend.  From this distance, our next storm system should arrive late Sunday or early Monday in the form of a cold front.

Looking longer-term, there are indications that colder conditions loom as we wrap up October and head into November and we’ll discuss this in more detail later this week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/08/sunday-morning-notebook-active-pattern-remains/

Oct 05

More Rain For Some; Watching Nate…

Highlights:

  • Wet close to the work week for some
  • Saturday storms
  • Watching Nate

Unsettled Close To The Work Week…Thursday’s weather was just what the doctor ordered!  Officially, here at IndyWx HQ, we recorded 0.73″.  Many neighborhoods throughout central IN accumulated more than 1″ of much needed rainfall!  Thankfully, additional rain chances are present as we wrap up the work week.  Most widespread showers and embedded thunder will impact the northern half of the state Friday, especially the northern third of the state.

As we flip the page over to the weekend, mostly dry conditions can be expected, with the exception of a skinny line of thunderstorms that will blow through the state Saturday evening.  These will come and go rather quickly and we’ll get into a slightly cooler and drier regime to wrap up the weekend.

Attention this weekend will be what comes of Nate.  Overall, ideas haven’t changed over the past 24 hours, including an eventual late weekend landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast.  That said, precise all-important details concerning overall strength are still debatable.  Interests along the north-central Gulf Coast should monitor updates closely.  Here on the home front, we note subtle differences between the GFS and European in regards to inland impacts.  For now, we’ll go with a blend between the two, thinking most of the more significant, steady rains remain southeast of central Indiana.

Eventually a cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday night.  This will result in a NW wind shift and cooler air spilling in here later next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/05/more-rain-for-some-watching-nate/

Oct 04

VIDEO: Soaking Rains, Tropics, And A Much Cooler Feel Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/04/video-soaking-rains-tropics-and-a-much-cooler-feel-next-week/

Oct 03

Bonus Summertime…

Highlights:

  • Scattered shower and t-storm chances return
  • Warm pattern continues
  • Changes loom later next week

Enjoy The Warmth While We Have It…A frontal boundary will “meander” around the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days.  It’ll sink south as we close the work week before lifting back north as a warm front this weekend.  At the same time, surface low pressure will track from the Plains into the Great Lakes this weekend.  The end result will be more unsettled conditions returning to the region after our extended dry spell.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time (in fact, most of the forecast period will be rain-free), but plan for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times beginning as early as Wednesday.  Additionally, as the front sags south Friday, slightly cooler air will work into central Indiana before a warmer southerly air flow takes over once again this weekend.

As we flip the page to next week, a couple of frontal boundaries will push southeast.  Additionally, the “wild card” in this forecast is what may eventually become of an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico.  While modeling differs on the evolution of things, a couple of solutions bring this into the north-central Gulf Coast this weekend before moving north and delivering widespread rain inland.  It’s far too early for specifics, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.

Back to the FROPA discussion:  The initial front won’t have much impact on area temperatures (still well above normal), but will be enough to include widely scattered storm chances early next week.  The second frontal passage will lead to a MUCH cooler feel just beyond the current 7-day period.  In fact, the air will grow chilly enough in the 8-10 day timeframe where it’ll actually feel more like November, and the first frost of the season may await for most of central Indiana…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/03/bonus-summertime/

Oct 01

Warm Week With Increasing Rain Chances…

Highlights:

  • Dry open to the work week
  • Warming trend develops
  • Turning more unsettled

Week Opens Dry; Ends Unsettled…High pressure will remain in control of our weather as we open up the new work week.  This will supply continued dry conditions along with a warming trend as our refreshing easterly flow transitions to the south.

This southerly air flow will help transport moisture northward as we progress into midweek and a “sluggish” front will begin to impact the area Wednesday evening into Thursday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and as the front meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend.  Forecast models differ on the evolution of things over the weekend and result in the sensible weather conditions ranging from more widespread showers and embedded thunder to more of a “splash and dash” variety of rain coverage.  We’ll fine tune things as we progress through the week.

Much cooler air is forecast to return just past the current 7-day forecast period.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″- 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/01/warm-week-with-increasing-rain-chances/

Sep 28

Finally Feeling Like Fall This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Cooler start
  • Reinforcing cool air arrives Friday evening
  • Warming back up next week

This Is More Like It…Cooler air worked into central Indiana overnight behind a cold front.  If you ask us, a step out the door this morning feels much better than the past week (we’re ready for fall, y’all)!  A reinforcing push of cool air will blow into town Friday evening and result in Saturday being the coolest day of the weekend with most remaining in the 60s for afternoon highs.

As we open up the new work week, our air flow will back around to the south and result in a new warming trend.  An expanding ridge of high pressure will lead to continued dry conditions next week, along with unseasonably warm to hot temperatures.

Looking longer-term, there’s really no change in sight in the overall weather pattern through at least early October.  That said, there are indications more significant changes loom towards mid-month that could result in more of an impactful shift to cooler times by the second half of the month (warm weather fans, keep in mind the other shoe has to drop sooner rather than later ;-)).  As far as precipitation goes, while the short-term doesn’t offer any hope for dry weather relief, we’re confident of a big flip towards a wet pattern by late autumn and winter.  Hang in there!

Fall Foliage:  The early season cool air we experienced in late August and first half of September ignited early fall foliage across central Indiana.  Unfortunately, the recent heat and expected warmer than average pattern through early October will really stunt that fall color change.  As things stand now, this fall isn’t shaping up to be one of the better color seasons across the area.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/28/finally-feeling-like-fall-this-weekend/

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