Category: 7-Day Outlook
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Bill, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, Tropics, Unseasonably Warm
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June 18, 2015
Highlights:
- Afternoon showers and storms
- Watching Bill’s remnants
- Active pattern remains
The day is dawning with overcast skies and humid conditions. Dew points in the lower 70s coupled with lower 70 degree air temperatures have things feeling very tropical. Showers and thunderstorms will fire later this afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe. With the moisture-laden air mass in place, torrential rainfall will remain likely with storms.
As we shift into Friday and Saturday all eyes will be on the remnant moisture of what once was Tropical Storm Bill. Latest model data focuses in on southern IN for the greatest threat of widespread heavy rain and potential flash flooding, including rainfall amounts of 3″ to 4″ in spots. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on the precise track of Bill’s remnants, but, as of now, folks downstate are at highest risk of flooding problems.
As we move into next week the active and stormy times continue. There are questions in regards to an expanding heat dome. Latest data has backed down dramatically on the potential heat next week. With the wet ground in place it’s hard to argue with that idea.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/afternoon-storms-watching-bills-remnants/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Tropics
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June 15, 2015
Highlights:
- Humid feel continues
- Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday
- Watching tropical remnants closely
We’re waking up to similar weather conditions that we dealt with to close the weekend- scattered heavy downpours and very humid. It certainly won’t rain the entire day, but scattered storms will bubble up again as we progress into the afternoon and evening. With the humid air mass locked in, any shower or storm that develops will produce torrential downpours.
A frontal boundary will slip into the region tomorrow and provide enough lift to present a strong to severe thunderstorm threat Tuesday. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things. This front will stall out near the area and serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development through the upcoming few days.
The tropics continue to be of interest later this week, but we stress that forecast models are really struggling with handling the details. Solutions range from a flood threat presented by the European and Canadian; however the GFS would suggest the tropical remnants don’t get involved in our pattern. We’re leaning more towards the Euro/ Canadian blend as of now as we feel the SE ridge will help steer the tropical remnants northeast into the Ohio Valley late week (timing may have to be find tuned as we draw closer). Again, stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″ – 3″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/humid-stormy-times-continue-watching-the-tropics/
Highlights:
- Best weather of the week is today
- Strong to severe storm potential Sunday and Monday
- Widespread heavy rain threat mid week
- Unsettled pattern continues
We’re opening the weekend with dry skies across central IN, along with a very tropical feel. The combination of a nearby weak boundary and the humid air mass will help fuel isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon. That said, overall coverage of storms will be reduced from what we saw Friday. Most of the day will feature dry conditions.
We’ll begin to increase storm chances as we rumble into the second half of the weekend and on into the new work week. Some of these may be strong to severe Sunday-Monday, including strong damaging winds and large hail.
Attention will then shift to mid week and the potential of an excessive rainfall event. Modeling is leaning towards tracking a tropical disturbance north out of the western GOM (Gulf of Mexico) before shifting northeast around the periphery of a southeastern ridge. Very heavy rainfall would result if this idea pans out. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 2″-4″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/today-is-the-pick-of-the-week-wet-and-stormy-pattern-looms/
Highlights:
- Hot and humid weather
- Better storm chances return Friday PM
- North briefly drier Saturday
- “Rinse and repeat” pattern early to mid next week
Heat and humidity will remain the big weather story Thursday with only an isolated storm chance. Most should stay rain-free Thursday. Better rain and storm chances will rumble into the central IN picture Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours. We think a frontal boundary will slip just far enough south to provide drier times from I-70 and points north Saturday. Live across the southern half of the state? Prepare for more scattered to numerous showers and storms. Everyone will get back in on the periodically stormy times during the second half of the weekend into next week. It’ll be plenty humid as well.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2.0″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/air-you-can-wear/
Highlights:
- Big time heat and humidity through late week
- Watching storm chances Wednesday night
- Briefly drier air Saturday
- Summer-like pattern continues next week
The big weather story over the second half of the week will be the heat and humidity. Many will reach, or exceed, the 90 degree mark Wednesday and/ or Thursday. We’ll keep a close eye on the northern portions of the state for storms to initialize Wednesday afternoon/ evening. Those at greatest risk for strong to severe storm potential will be from areas along and north of the I-70 corridor Wednesday evening. Damaging winds and hail are of biggest concern.
A cold front will slide into the area Friday and provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. Latest model runs then deliver a briefly drier surge of air Saturday and we’ll lean in that direction with our Saturday forecast for now. Don’t get used to the drier air as heat and humidity will be plentiful early next week, along with renewed shower and storm chances.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1″ – 1.5″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hello-summer/
